Calculating The Probabilty Of Differnt Flops
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 313
just a forewarning here, Im not the most gifted math student in the world, but here we go.
I beleive I understand how to calculate the probabilty of differnt scenarios occuring on the flop thanks to the search feature here and some great posts, but I would love for someone to check my work and perhaps answer a few questions.
First, calculating probabilty for the flop. (where order dosent matter)
A= total # of cards depending on what scenario your looking for
B= Total # of cards depending on what scenario your looking for
C= Total # of cards depending on what scenario your looking for
A/50 = D
B/49 = E
C/48 = F------- D times E Times F = X
Multiply X by the total number of possible flop combinations that actually create the scenario your looking to create = the probabilty
perhaps that part isnt as eloquent as somebody else may put it, but is it correct???
Second, if that is truly the way you calculate the probabilty, all the calculations I will ever do will only involve
A- Value between 1-50
B- Value Between 1-49
C- Value Between 1-48
Is there a program where I can create the formula in "first" then tell that program to calculate all possible answers with "A"s value being between 1-50, "B"s value being between 1-49 and "C"s value being between 1-48 and it will compute all possible variations of that formula?
I hope that last part makes sense, THANKS!
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 4,240
Now I understand your question differently from my previous answer. In that one, I assumed you wanted three cards all from one set. Your example of 3 3's suggested that to me. At the other extreme, you could want three cards from three non-overlapping sets. For example, if you hold AK, what is the chance of a QJT flop to give you a straight?
The formula is:
6*A*B*C / (50*49*48)
The reason for the 6 is you can get the three cards in any order.
What gets complicated is if the sets overlap somewhat, but not completely. For example, you have JTs and you want to know the probability of getting both an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw, but not a straight flush draw. Now you need two suited cards, and two connecting cards, with one card being both suited and connecting.