i've been trying to figure out when it's +ev to play the badbeat jackpot tables with the extra rake over the normal tables assuming there are 6 people at the table, and a flop is seen 40% of the time.
data im basing off is knowing there is a 0.00000519% chance of any inidivudual player losing with quad 8s or better at a 10 handed table where everyone sees the flop.
question is, how large does the bad beat jackpot need to be for someone to sit at the table and profiting from the badbeat jackpot assuming a table that hits the jackpot pays out 70% of the 0.65$ extra rake accumulation.
im not great at math at this point, but i think this may be rather complicated only giving the data based off a 10 handed scenerio.
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my attempt:
10 handed player, everyone sees the flop. 1 in 192678 hands (total of 2 million hands between everyone) will result in quad 8s or better losing. divide by 10 for an INDIVIDUAL player. 1 in 2,000,000 hands the player will hit the bad beat assuming he played every hand and everyone else at the table played every hand.
lets say 40% of the time the flop is seen. 1 in 5 mill chance player hits bbj. does this mean though, that 40% of the time when the flop is seen, all 10 players see the flop? (not sure here)
10 table to 6 table is 5 million hands x 1.667 = 8mill hands for someone to win bbj. (no idea if this makes sense or not either?)
after 8 million hands, 6 players pay 30% of .65$ 40% of the time = 100k per player. to overcome the 100k rake paid from winning the jackpot over 8 million hands, the jackpot would need to be about 850k...
jackpot is hit at your table after 8 million hands avg, you paid 100k rake, you may or may not have won the jackpot, but taking the 900k jackpot and dividing 70% of it among 6 people is 105k profit per person. This overcomes the 100k rake you paid.
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thats what I got, but im almost positive even if my assumptions are realistic, my math based on them is wrong. please if someone can take the time to review, would be great! thanks
You're asking all 10 players to see every flop. That isn't necessary. You need everyone with a bad beat eligible hand to see the flop. If someone has 9-2 OS it is irrelevant if they see the flop or not.
