I did a few rough calculations. These might be off slightly since I didn't take into account certain situations, but I think they're close enough given that you'll be the only one even thinking about these numbers
On the river, if the board is not paired, there's roughly a 5% chance that a random hand can make a full house or quads. If it's 10 handed I think you can expect that at least one will have a boat somewhere in the vicinity of 40% or so. (You can't just multipy the 5% by 10 because the hands are not independent and this overcounts). I would guess that an A high flush on an unpaired board has around the same value as a medium two pair in hold'em.
Also, remember that an A high flush is not the nut flush. You might have A
K
on a 9
6
3
Q
K
board, but someone with A
x
x
has you beat.
If the board contains one pair by the river, there is roughly a 17% chance that one random hand can make a boat or quads. At a 10 handed table, I think you can assume that a straight or flush is going to be almost worthless here, and that low boats are basically bluff-catchers.
This game is going to basically be a contest of who can make the biggest boat, with flushes or straights occaisionally catching bluffs. I would stick almost entirely to high cards and big pairs, with suited aces being a bonus. Any time you get trips preflop should obviously be played pretty strong, but you're going to have to throw them away a lot if you don't hit quads and a bunch of high cards come. 4 to a straight flush would be pretty nice, as you have two outs to complete that, but 3 to a straight flush is probably only playable if they are high cards and thus also have some potential to make a good boat. Any hand with a bunch of low cards is probably one you shouldn't play unless you can get in cheap to see if you can flop a straight, boat, or draw to a good boat. Even then you may frequently lose, or have to fold if the board turns bad, so I'd probably just toss these hands away anyway.
This probably wouldn't apply in the kind of game you're playing with a bunch of drunks, but against people playing reasonably, you can definitely do a bit of bluffing. They'll be just as scared of you having the nuts as you of them. I find that a lot of sane players tend to tighten up way too much when they play a game like this, and manage to convince themselves that someone has quads or top boat every hand.
Last edited by DarkMagus; 01-24-2008 at 02:24 PM.