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You really went AI on a draw? You really went AI on a draw?

05-28-2008 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PageUp
There needs to be a rule against comments like this, because they sound reasonable but they're not. This type of comment does more harm to players who don't already know it's wrong because it's exactly what inexperienced players want to believe.

If you want to lose money, play roulette.

If you want to make money playing poker, learn when to gamble.
There needs to be a rule against people who don't give a damn about what someone meant and just take everything literally.

Here is the basic rule. Let's say we are in the middle of a tourney. We have a 1/3 chance to win, and our only opponent went all in and gave us 3/1. And if we lose, we still have 75% of your stack. So do we call?

Of course not. The idea is that your skill will present you with opportunities where your odds are better than the chances. If you take 1/3 vs 3/1 chances, where's the skill? (Of course if you had an additional incentive like the table image, things would be different.)

The OP is such a situation. If Hero does not fold, the tourney will be over two of three times for him. If he wins, he will be the CL. So it depends on the way you look at tourneys. One player will say "Winning is most important because the prize money goes up dramatically on first rank", so they will gladly be CL once and broke twice in this spot. Others would say "I fold here, make it to the FT all three times, and use my skill to win one, or even two!" And of course, even if you take this 1/3 chance and win and become CL, that does not automatically mean you will win the tourney.

It all depends on personal style.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:12 PM
47 replies, none from OP eh?

edit: wow, eighty new replies while I was skimminig the thread
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by el_dusto
why would you call pre if you didn't want to get it in on a flop like that? were you hoping to stack off to A9 on an A high flop instead?

also, ssnyc, the hands-down best SM satellite is the 5400fpp STT satellite, 9 players, 4 win T$215.
4 of 10..
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech
47 replies, none from OP eh?

edit: wow, eighty new replies while I was skimminig the thread
Page 5. reasoning for PrF call.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssnyc
4 of 10..
oops. Makes it EVneutral then compared to just buying in.

Good STT players though can probably turn it into a 45% winning rate or so though, so I say play.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pped5700
I wanted to outplay the guy. I said im gonna outplay this guy. Im gonna outplay this guy this hand.
I went with my gut yo.
lol
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BartJ385
There needs to be a rule against people who don't give a damn about what someone meant and just take everything literally.

Here is the basic rule. Let's say we are in the middle of a tourney. We have a 1/3 chance to win, and our only opponent went all in and gave us 3/1. And if we lose, we still have 75% of your stack. So do we call?

Of course not. The idea is that your skill will present you with opportunities where your odds are better than the chances. If you take 1/3 vs 3/1 chances, where's the skill? (Of course if you had an additional incentive like the table image, things would be different.)

The OP is such a situation. If Hero does not fold, the tourney will be over two of three times for him. If he wins, he will be the CL. So it depends on the way you look at tourneys. One player will say "Winning is most important because the prize money goes up dramatically on first rank", so they will gladly be CL once and broke twice in this spot. Others would say "I fold here, make it to the FT all three times, and use my skill to win one, or even two!" And of course, even if you take this 1/3 chance and win and become CL, that does not automatically mean you will win the tourney.

It all depends on personal style.
Ok, first of all, I'm going to interpret you literally again, because if you fold getting 3 to 1 when you are a 2 to 1 dog, you're a fool.

Now, since what you clearly meant is "if you win 1 time in 4 and are getting 3 to 1 should you call," I'll answer that, because it's obvious. It doesn't matter whether you call or fold, from a pure EV standpoint you're indifferent. From a tournament EV standpoint you should probably call, because it's the middle of the tournament and blinds go up fast. Actually, considering you won't be knocked out in the situation you gave above, I'd call pretty much every time, as having a big stack often allows you to create more +EV situations.

As for the OP, I'll just repeat what everyone else said, if you aren't going to get it in on this flop with great odds, why are you calling preflop? I read his answer, "to outplay people," and that's not a reason. The pot is already multiway and after his call will represent about 1/5 of his stack, 1/4 after the BB comes in. And then there is the matter of the original raiser having a 15 bb stack. There is no room to outplay anyone here.

This is not a style question. This is a making the final table in the first place question.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:34 PM
fold pre shove flop

if you call pre and dont shove this flop its rly bad

isnt this the type of flop you wanted to see when calling pre
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:35 PM
What the correct flop decision is, isn't in any way related to how we chose to play preflop.
That said, this looks like a very easy ship on the flop.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech
What the correct flop decision is, isn't in any way related to how we chose to play preflop.
That said, this looks like a very easy ship on the flop.
You're right, but if the OP is asking this question at all, it reveals a flaw in his preflop thinking, which is a leak that should be pointed out.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
What the correct flop decision is, isn't in any way related to how we chose to play preflop.
i know what i just said in the other thread, but this is baffling to me. care to explain, or would you just like to assassinate my character again?
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PageUp
I read his answer, "to outplay people," and that's not a reason. The pot is already multiway and after his call will represent about 1/5 of his stack, 1/4 after the BB comes in. And then there is the matter of the original raiser having a 15 bb stack. There is no room to outplay anyone here.
Obv was being sarcastic, to what I thot was a ******ed comment.
Of course, calling PrF, Im hoping to see exactly the kind of flop we have. And after reading through the responses, it seems overall, a shove is w/o question best, for pot equ., tourn equ., etcetc. Reason I posted the hand, was given the flop action, and based on reasonable assumed ranges are we ever not getting the right price here? Obv. theory of doub up., tourn equity, greatly influences our equity needed in this hand, and may make a call with inferior odds correct. Didnt really see any reasonable 4way ranges posted, and it prob really doesnt matter, as close as our equity most likely is. Appreciate the comments.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pped5700
Obv was being sarcastic, to what I thot was a ******ed comment.
Of course, calling PrF, Im hoping to see exactly the kind of flop we have. And after reading through the responses, it seems overall, a shove is w/o question best, for pot equ., tourn equ., etcetc. Reason I posted the hand, was given the flop action, and based on reasonable assumed ranges are we ever not getting the right price here? Obv. theory of doub up., tourn equity, greatly influences our equity needed in this hand, and may make a call with inferior odds correct. Didnt really see any reasonable 4way ranges posted, and it prob really doesnt matter, as close as our equity most likely is. Appreciate the comments.
Sry, hard to get sarcasm online sometimes. And there are people who say things like this seriously, which makes my soul die a little.

Ranges would be hard to figure, because of all the side pots. But because the side pot with MP1 is so big (if you shove), and because you're never drawing dead, it's going to be hard to justify a fold. So long as MP1 doesn't have a set, and both other players have lower flush draws, you're doing ok. And against reasonable ranges for each, where some of your opponents hands are drawing nearly dead, your equity gets a lot better.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 03:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PageUp
Now, since what you clearly meant is "if you win 1 time in 4 and are getting 3 to 1 should you call," I'll answer that, because it's obvious. It doesn't matter whether you call or fold, from a pure EV standpoint you're indifferent. From a tournament EV standpoint you should probably call, because it's the middle of the tournament and blinds go up fast.
Interesting point. You play tourneys as if they were cash games.

And btw it is pretty pointless to berate the bad preflop call when OP starts with "I fold PrF here like 96.8876542% of the time."
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 04:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BartJ385
Interesting point. You play tourneys as if they were cash games.

And btw it is pretty pointless to berate the bad preflop call when OP starts with "I fold PrF here like 96.8876542% of the time."
meh...he's a fish...I fold like 97.32456%...I think that is more EV optimal..



lol
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by el_dusto
i know what i just said in the other thread, but this is baffling to me. care to explain, or would you just like to assassinate my character again?
If we'd find that folding the flop, as played, is the best play, it doesn't really matter if that makes pf even worse a decision. What we take into account on the flop, is what the best play is. Nothing else.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 04:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BartJ385
Interesting point. You play tourneys as if they were cash games.
I don't know where you're getting this from. I can only assume it's because you read Tournament Poker for AP and have some outdated views on what tournament play is.

As a side note, I found it amusing how insulted I was by this comment ("How DARE you compare my MTT game to cash game play!)
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech
If we'd find that folding the flop, as played, is the best play, it doesn't really matter if that makes pf even worse a decision. What we take into account on the flop, is what the best play is. Nothing else.
I'm going to modify my earlier comment and say that, when you make the decision to call preflop, you've should have already decided that getting it in on this kind of flop, outside of some pretty extreme situations, is going to be +EV.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 04:17 PM
Yes, yes of course.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PageUp
I'm going to modify my earlier comment and say that, when you make the decision to call preflop, you've should have already decided that getting it in on this kind of flop, outside of some pretty extreme situations, is going to be +EV.
yes
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 04:24 PM
Yeah, my point was just that it makes it hard to say that the two decisions aren't related when the proper flop action is constituted by the equity of taking particular actions on particular flops. So you might say that what is correct on the flop doesn't rely on what is correct preflop, but what is correct preflop does depend on what is correct on the flop. Square is a rectangle and all that.

This isn't really a criticism, because it isn't really what you were saying at all. But I found it interesting to think about, so I wrote it down. Intellectual masturbation is fun.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 04:59 PM
This thread is funny in a sad way.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-28-2008 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunkman
This thread is funny in a sad way.
seems to be the trend
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-29-2008 , 02:08 AM
Your problem here is that you called an UTG raise here with A7. Fold pre 234% of the time and avoid predicaments like this eh?
You really went AI on a draw? Quote
05-29-2008 , 02:14 AM
Um, I don't think there is a poker player alive who doesn't call this drawing to the nuts. I don't know if it's the right play or not, thinking about the math hurts my head, but if anyone here is folding, you must not think poker is gambling.
You really went AI on a draw? Quote

      
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