Hardly anyone seems to be responding in the HS thread..

Live 1.5k hand (New Zealand donkament)

We're like 30 something effective to start the hand, villain in question appears to be some online kid, however I get the impression he's mostly just clicking buttons. A quick view of his hendon mob suggests hes had one significant score a few years back but nothing much since. Didn't know his online name. No significant history between us, we played a bit together on day 1 and I didn't get out of line or anything. I haven't played many pots to showdown, and the one time I did, I had it vs some massive drooler. Were still a while to the money, less than 2 hours into day 2. He opens EP 9 handed, I flat 9c9d in MP, didn't think I could 3b/c and there were reshove stacks behind etc. Everyone else folds, flop 665ss he bets I flat, turn ks completing flush draw, he checks.

My quick thoughts were that his range is super capped when he checks the turn, didn't think he'd ever check boats/flushes so he mostly has air planning to give up or kx/some mid pair planning to c/c turn c/eval rivers. I didn't think I could ever get value from anything by checking back turn and vbetting rivers, nor did I ever expect him to check turn and bet rivers with air, so I planned to bet two vs a range I largely expect him to c/c turn and c/f rivers unimproved with (hands that have me crushed - kx, tt-qq), as well as hands I have crushed (77,88). I thought this line would maximize EV vs his turn check/call range (as mentioned I don't think I can ever get anymore value, can fold out parts of his range that have me crushed OTT by him c/cing turn and c/fing river, plus it seems evident there are lots more combos of hands that have me crushed when he c/c turn than hands I have crushed). He ends up c/cing turn and then checks the river..(an off suit 5 and I obviously rip it in).

Thoughts? I've talked to 2 HS regs I respect about the hand, 1 didn't like it and 1 did. I've been thinking about the hand a lot and I still think I like my line, just thought I'd post it up here for discussion.

Seems hard to get two streets of Value from worse but turn is a clear value bet in my book.
Bluffing river I'm not sure about. I would check for showdown value and bluff rivers with no showdown value in future and play more aggressively with the TAG image you get from this spot. I don't like merging my ranges without a reason to do so.

Way above my ABI but you posted it here.

Furo, I am not vbetting the turn. I am setting up a river bluff shove vs a range i perceived as (kx, mid pairs). Combinatorially speaking, there are more hands that c/c turn that have me crushed than I have crushed when he does infact c/c (tt-qq, kx, perhaps aa). Therefore, I am mostly bluffing when I bet the turn (and am definitely bluffing when he c/c turn and I bet river). I assumed (in a vacuum) that he'd bet all his really strong stuff on the turn (boats, flushes), and check/decide the rest. Obviously this is a massive assumption and is essentially the crux of the argument, which needs to hold true if my line is to be any good. Another assumption is that I need him to be folding kx and other hands which have me beat OTR if I am to take this line.

I think I really messed up trying to convey what I was trying to do in this hand when I posted it. I am bluffing turn/river vs a range that, as mentioned (combo wise), has me owned when he c/c turn

Its 2016 people know how to protect their checking ranges (Kxh AxAh etc. for example) Also its not like he never traps here with flushes/fullhouses. Just check back and try to show down your hand.

By the way i dont think live random clicker is gonna fold a lot on river when he realizes he capped his range OTT...

I understood it but as said I don't like merging in this spot.
If you don't think you can valuebet turn and check river with showdown value his range for continuing is way too strong to think about blufffing him off his hand when he choses this potcontrol line.

what's the SPR ott and otr? it's a wall of text mate, too hard to read through.

check turn, check river and get to cheap SD

This

Easiest check back ever

H is thinking/playing at a higher level than I am - and if the V is more like on my level - then possibly H is leveling himself by ripping it in OTR. I understand the reasoning for the play, but think the standard line is more appropriate in this instance - and check back.

I think the lead out on the flop and the check on the turn implies some kind of an overpair to the board, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility you're looking at a nut-flush draw because I've seen plenty of people bet into flops with two spades and queen or ace-high in that spot. That is what the check on the turn is really protecting against.

Once you got to the river in that spot I'd have checked. The range of hands that might fold to your bet that beat you is pretty much, what, Kx? Why risk a bet when you there are plenty of hands (ace-high, small pairs) that might be in the pot that you can beat but aren't likely to call?

You don't make clear what the stack and bet sizes are...

Assuming your bets are reasonably sized, then when you bet on turn villain should be aware that he will be facing an all-in on the river. So his call is an indicator that he is calling both streets.

Also consider that if villain has a hand like AK/KQ betting the turn will look strong. Checking the turn under-reps his hand and makes it look like TT-QQ. Or even 77-QQ. So if this is his hand then his plan will be to never fold.

The problem for you is that villain isn't putting you on a K. And because you just called pre-flop your likely hands are smallish pairs.

Not a great spot for a bluff IMO.

I liked reading through your reasoning!
Nevertheless, unlike others, I'd like more text! In particular, leaving out stack sizes and bet sizes seems strange at that thinking level!
In general, I wouldn't rule out nut flushes or boats at all when villain checks turn. Indeed there seem to be two bets left in effective stacks. If I put myself in villain's shoes, I would come to the conclusion that you will not get more money into the pot by betting anyway most of the time (like, stacks go in vs big hand, 1 bet vs middle pairs, nothing vs floats or a-high), so I might as well check some of my strong range here to let hero fire himself. I might be wrong, but I actually do that in some similar spots.