The calculations that two2brains has posted above are good. However, they do not accurately reflect a considerable amount of the value of a ticket. Those calculations do not account for:
A) the accurate number of participants in the Grand Final
B) the accurate number of participants in the weekly finals
C) the value of the Grand Final tickets awarded in the weekly finals was inaccurate making the value of the weekly final tickets inaccurate
D) the pay-out structure of these tournaments adds significant value to those finishing earlier in the field (the vast majority of players)
E) other tangible costs resulting from there being no direct buy-in for these tournaments
F) the fact that those selling these tickets are selling to their direct competitors lowers the current holder's $EV from the tournament.
G) demand for the tickets is higher than the supply.
A) Accurate number of participants in the Grand Final
After 6 weekly finals there are 11,158 participants in the Grand Final. There are 2,000 qualifiers per weekly final. We should assume that the number of people who have un-registered is negligible. Thus, the only reason for less than 2,000 per week is duplicate registrants. There were no duplicate registrants the first week. We will ignore the fact that number of duplicate registrants is non-linear over time. [As the number of registrants increases, the number of possible duplicates increase. In addition, prior registrants, in general, have demonstrated an edge over the field and thus are more likely to duplicate register multiple times.]
Thus, 11,158 - 2,000 = 9,158 additional registrants in 5 weekly finals where duplication was possible. 9,158/5 = 1,831.6 new registrants each week. Total registrants over 9 weeks is 2,000 + (8*1,831.6) = 16,653 total registrants expected in the Grand Final.
two2brains showed the total prize pool of the Grand Final to be: $450,000. Thus, the value of each ticket is:
$450,000 / 16,653 = $27.02 + 10% vig = $29.73.
Given that the number of duplicate participants who can not use an additional Grand Final ticket will probably increase with each week, the above value is probably low.
B) Accurate number of participants in weekly final:
The number of participants in the weekly finals have been: 6,655; 5,578; 6,891; 7,077; 7,320; and 7,191 for an average of 6,785.
C) Value of Grand Final Tickets was inaccurate (due to (A), above) in the weekly prize pool calculation.
Weekly prize pool is: $100,000 + $29.73 * 2,000 = $159,449.46
Using the average number of participants this results in a Weekly Final ticket price of:
$159,449.46 / 6785 = $23.50 + 10% vig = $25.85
Using the lowest number of participants in a Weekly Final results in a ticket price of:
$159,449.46 / 5578 = $28.59 + 10% vig = $31.44
D) The payout structure of the both the weekly tournaments and the Grand Final are extremely wide.
The weekly tournaments start paying at 4,000th place, and you get a ticket to the Grand Final at 2,000th place. Thus, almost 59% of the field gets paid, and almost 29.5% of the field gets a ticket to the Grand Final. A "normal" payout structure on PokerStars pays about 14.65% of the field with very few paying a higher percentage and many paying down in the 10.5% ballpark.
Cost of a ticket to a tournament that pays an equivalent amount to lower placing players:
About 14.65% of the average field is 994th place. Let's round to 1,000th place.
At 1,00th place you get: $30.00 (cash) + $29.73 (Grand Final ticket). So, $59.73.
Thus, an ticket to a tournament with equivalent payouts to the Weekly Final for lower placing finishers would normally cost you $59.73. Admittedly, such a tournament would have much higher prizes for the final table. What the ticket is worth to a purchaser is going to depend on where they think they will end up finishing.
E) There is no direct buy-in to these tournaments.
Those that have tickets have spent time and/or money to obtain the tickets. Given variance, each ticket requires multiple entries to the tournaments awarding the tickets. Even if you are willing to spend the time and/or money to obtain a ticket, there is no guarantee that you be able to do so.
The Grand Final ticket price does not reflect the fact that you must win it by spending the time, having the skill, and being lucky enough to win it.
F) Each ticket transferred definitely introduces a direct competitor for the prize pool without increasing the prize pool.
This significantly lowers the $EV for the person that is selling the ticket. This is a real value that not transferring the ticket has to the person holding the extra ticket over and above the "actual" dollar equivalent value of the ticket.
G) The supply of the both Weekly Final and Grand Final tickets is strictly limited.
The demand for the tickets is significantly higher than the supply. It takes a considerable amount of time, effort, skill and luck to obtain a Weekly Final ticket.
The supply of Grand Final tickets is extremely limited. Even if you can guarantee to play a perfect game of poker, you can not accumulate more than one Grand Final ticket per week. In the real world, variance will result in not being able to obtain even that many. Thus, the supply of Grand Final tickets will be very, very small.
All things considered, the marketplace should determine that the trading price for each ticket, particularly the Grand Final tickets, is significantly higher than the "book" values calculated above.
