Here's the line I mentioned that I like better, as applied to this situation, see what you think of this. I would be interested to hear crtique of it as well for my own education (partial thread hijack
)...
Pre Flop: Hero is CO with XX:
4 folds,
Hero raises to t720,
1 fold,
SB raises to t2200,
1 fold, Hero calls t1480
Flop: (t4840) 7
9
6
SB bets t540, Hero calls (instead of raising to t1680)
Turn: (t8200) 5
SB checks, Hero bets 1200 (instead of checking), SB calls.
River: (t8200) 7
SB bets t5760, Hero folds (instead of raising to 14400)
Remember, he reraised you preflop. So he probably does NOT have a drawing hand on this board. But you, being a loose raiser, may well have one, or a weak made hand. Play into that fear.
Note that calling the flop and betting the turn as shown above costs you the same number of chips as raising the flop, while I think having more chance of success.
Played this way, there are many scare cards for a hand like Q
Q
at the turn...
- Any 5 (4 cards)
- Any 8 (4 cards)
- Any 9 (3 cards)
- Any 10 (3 cards, since you have JTs)
- Any ace (4 cards)
- Any remaining hearts (2h, 3h, 4h, 6h, Jh, Qh, Kh)
That is a total of 25 cards!
So... the bad news is your JTs is full of crap. But the good news is that having such a bad hand leaves more scare cards live.
If you bet 1200 at the turn on one of those cards and he STILL calls, then I think it's time to give up to serious river action (unless you hit your straight, of course).
But if he CHECKS to you at the river, then you could fire another bullet, especially if the board has become even more scary, as it likely will (you get another shot at 25 scare cards).
For example, with a board of 7
9
6
T
A
it would be a very tough call with Q
Q
against an opponent who represented a drawing hand on the flop.
I would bet something like 2/3 the pot, both to reduce my risk when I run into an overpair that also had a heart in it, and also to sell it as a value bet that wants to get paid off.
Played this way, it also puts you in a better position if you spike a J on the turn. Now you may have the best hand. You can then check behind to keep the pot small. At the river you may be able to pick off a weak bluff, or at least not pay off so much vs a QQ value bet.