I'd been opening a fair amount and just lost half my stack when I opened AK to 2.5x, two people with 20 bbs shoved and I overcalled and lost to QQ>AK>AQ. Villain has a 33% ROI with a 42$ ABI over 3k tournaments. His preflop range has to be pretty weighted towards strongish hands (QQ-AA?) and I guess like maybe big suited connectors or possibly some midpairs because I'm opening pretty wide here and a 3bet is committing. Fold when he minraises this kind of flop? Such a lame spot, and he really can't ever be bluffing.

Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds + t25 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (CO): t7305 M = 10.82
BTN: t12757 M = 18.90
SB: t9271 M = 13.73
BB: t22067 M = 32.69
UTG: t6248 M = 9.26
UTG+1: t7601 M = 11.26
UTG+2: t4302 M = 6.37
MP1: t10066 M = 14.91
MP2: t5122 M = 7.59

Pre Flop: (t675) Hero is CO with T T
5 folds, Hero raises to t750, BTN calls t750, 2 folds

Flop: (t2175) 8 5 4 (2 players)
Hero bets t1355, BTN raises to t2975, Hero ?

lame spot for sure, since u know hes pretty decent i think folding best

fist pump. get it in. if villain was bad im happy with a fold.

exact opposite for me, if he was bad I'd know there's all kinds of trash in his range pre, he could r/f for information etc and be raise calling with lots of worse hands, so i'd fistpump get it in

i fist pump shove if i know the decent villain is the kind that likes to snap off cbets with small raises, but i think your prob right about his range being weighted towards QQ+

through my experience bad villains have sets, 2pair or JJ+ in this spot like 75% of the time, except they usually size it more like double the cbet

if he really has a strong hand and hes decent wouldnt he know a shove is way better then his gay mini raise which would commit u to the pot anyway?

stacks are pretty shallow and I bet into a drawy board with not much behind...I think he's never bluffing and if he had big diamonds he's probably more likely to shove but might minraise to balance/get me to herofold, not sure though.

Minraise theoretically leaves me room to spaz if he thinks I'm a random, or make a dumb flat because I'm "getting a good price", so minraising is probably optimal with something like say, AA here rather than shoving

i think his raise size is a little scary assuming that he'd prob want to raise more w/ combo draws and stuff to get some fold equity. But if we assume this raise size includes anything he'll get it in w/. we are doing good enough to get it in.


Board: 8h 5d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.669% 48.32% 01.35% 175089 4882.50 { KK+, TT-44, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, A8s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd, AJo }
Hand 1: 50.331% 48.98% 01.35% 177486 4882.50 { TT }

I think we may be beat here, I just hate cbet/folding begrudglingly these stacks without a plan going in... ug spot

Although if we feel he must have JJ+ then folding leaving us 20bb ish cannot be bad.

Interesting question though: If you are opening a lot why do we assume he Flats us w/ JJ+ ? If your image is LAG then 3bet committing for value with JJ+ obv is more optimal imo..

Unless he has a reason to believe teh SB or BB will 3bet squeeze ?

I think he prob 3b calls jacks, thinking KK+ or maybe QQ for big pair flats. If I had 10k I think he'd 3bet all of them but I know he can't 3b/fold to me pre so I'll never get it in light. I just thought given the action of the flop it weighted his preflop range more to very strong hands since I only opened with 24ish bbs

folding here is ridiculous.

get it in.

you dont think villain is min raising his draws here?

snap fold -- actually use a little of the time bank like it's a tough decision and then tell him you folded TT in chat, that'll tilt him for not 3ballin pre

I don't know, I'm probably folding, feels like he is inviting you to shove over his little raise.

I have the Td so some of the combos you listed are impossible. Also, I don't think Ad9d, AJo (wtf), A8s, or any of the other midpairs you listed are in his range preflop, perhaps the midpairs but those should probably be discounted a bit especially considering I don't think he flats with 66 and minraise calls this texture.

true, guess it's a fold

u really think 1010 is good often enough on this texture facing this action

I don`t see a dead bluff here.They are in shape to just simply call with a big drawing hand,Potentially freezing an ak-aq,so i think you`re beat.

i shove usually

I dont see how you can fold here. Think your a lil over worried with his bet sizing. I mean he could be trying to induce or just as easily trying to look stronger on a flush draw (yes this is possible it happens all the time)

With you raising the cutoff and him flatting button does not always mean aa kk imo. He easily could have a hand that plays well against your opening raise esp with posiition that he rather not 3bet get in. Also you said yourself you have been opening alot which might make him prone to flat.

what... if he flatted QQ+ pf, why wouldn't he just flat those on the flop?

I'm not folding

so this, the board is so dry vs your range pre, and thye know that their min looks sooooo strong. u have to get it in here.

Anyways, doesn't seem to be anymore discussion besides lols overpair call

i sigh shoved and he snapped with 55

not sure what this means because obv hes flatting all those midpairs pre (not sure what else), but the minraise on this texture given stacks still scared the **** out of me

turn xd river xd tho, ship the FT bubble 5 hours later.