was railing FT of nightly $33 on Carbon. 3 players remaining, two very good regs and one fish. Dynamic is back and forth battle between regs, duking it out a lot SB vs. BB. However, neither of them are getting out of line -- the only major hand they've played was a sicko cooler. Fishy player is managing to maintain his stack but is bound to blind down gradually b/c of playing too passive. He's a passive fish who likes to open jam AK for 30 bbs, min bet tp, and overall folds too many boards.

So as far as ICM, basically regs just need to let fish grind down. Which brings us to this hand between the regs (SB is fish). Blinds 12.5k/25k.

BTN (~700k) opens to 50k, SB (~600k) folds, BB (~730k) calls. (I don't have exact stack sizes, but all three players had around the same amount although BB covered BTN by 35k).

AdKc5c. BB checks, BTN bets 60k, BB raises to 120k, BTN raises to 205k, BB jams, BTN calls.

Very good regs, huh?

First of all, I'm not a big fan of the xr. We have such a hard time defending our xc-range on these kind of boards - basically capped to weak 1-p-hands - so we need hands we can comfortably call multiple streets with.

The rest of the hand is a bit of an unnecessary leveling-war tbh.

Bb shouldn't have anything better than aj on that action pre
Based on that the action post is predictable

Being loose passive fish, i wouldnt put anything past bb having as good as AQ here. Post is ok, but feel like we only ever GII versus worse which has considerable equity, + i would be wary of a loose passive fish deciding to min c/r this flop. Stats on bb would help with postflop decision here.

Re-read the HH bro. Fish is not in the hand.

predictable? I'd say BB's jam and BTN calling the jam are predictable. But BB's c/r otf?? Shouldn't ICM considerations/dynamics make BB's optimal play to just check call two streets evaluate river?

Also, what is reasoning behind Btn's 4b? To induce clubs, which are all of BB's range except 55, to jam? plz explain to someone who is far less seasoned at poker

If we are playing as BB, BTN has a wide range after his pfr, if not ATC. When we hit the flop hard with top pair and nut flush draw, it's reasonable to assume we are ahead. As such, donking into BTN might scare him off. If we assume that BTN will c-bet a good %, c/r is the best way to get value otf.

honestly, half of the 'very good regs' on this site play AT this way without the clubs. there's a reason they aren't moving to Mexico to play on Stars. bu's play seems fine-ish though given bb pretty much has clubs, 55, k5 or a5 and there are a lot of clubs in a deck of cards and only so many 5's. I'd probably just call him down though

Prob something like this

Btn raise is wider than ax kx so...
Cbet: I have ax kx
C/r: really? Look I actually have it and would prefer to just take it down now coz icm
Bet/r: no...I really do have it. Sod off.
Jam: fgs dumbass I cant fold this
Call: fk now I have to call
Lose: wtf
Win: I am a genius. The fish is mine bwahahaha

lol, reminds me of the Dan Smith bustout hand of the ME.