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Weird all in spot with exposed hand Weird all in spot with exposed hand

11-23-2011 , 05:24 PM
Early on in a live $10 MTT.

Blinds are 50/100. 7 handed.

Hero: 4950
Villain: ~13000

UTG moves all in for 1250
two folds
Hero (CO) calls 1250 with AQ
one fold
Villain (SB) re-shoves ~13000

At this point the big blind folds and villain seems to think he's heads up with the original raiser, so he flips up his cards and shows 77

Action is back on Hero. Hero: ???

I'm getting about 2:1 on a call and I've put ~25% of my stack in the middle already.

But UTG could well be holding some of my outs, and if I fold I still have 37bb (average ~55bb).

Thoughts? Is it worth putting my tournament life on the line when I'm, at best, flipping?

Spoiler:
fwiw, if villain doesn't show his cards i probably call because he's aggro and AQ is often good against here
Weird all in spot with exposed hand Quote
11-23-2011 , 05:42 PM
You need an equity of 33% to breakeven and you don't have it:

Quote:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.765% 26.15% 02.62% 1728866124 173192772.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 32.641% 32.23% 00.41% 2131049160 27337728.00 { 77 }
Hand 2: 38.595% 35.66% 02.94% 2357946612 194124900.00 { 66+, AJs+, AQo+ }
so fold.
Weird all in spot with exposed hand Quote
11-23-2011 , 08:42 PM
Actually my previous post is wrong because you won't triple up when winning the hand, so the EV calculation is a bit complicated but I guess this is a fold anyway.
Weird all in spot with exposed hand Quote
11-23-2011 , 10:50 PM
Shove the 1st time by and iso.

Not folding now to 77.
Weird all in spot with exposed hand Quote

      
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