Dude, I suggest you stop wasting your time talking to me, especially after making a fool of yourself not understanding that 36 > 35.7 and how simulations work.
Also I suggest you all a mod, become one, or find a job as policeman if you want to give act as such.

What's sure is I'm not going to waste time on talking poker with you.

This forum has become so sad, it was filled with elite players back then, it's now crawling with wannabe cops that can't beat the micros
Pathetic little man

What makes it slick is the EV of b and x are the same at equilibrium (i.e. unexploitable) and someone like you will completely misrange someone like me who realizes this and will x KK+ OTT which makes me even more money beyond equilibrium.

The 3bettor knows you're thinking this which is why he's showing up with 97s, K5s, K8o, JTo, et al sometimes in this spot.

Folding ATs is a disaster. The excuse of "I don't wanna play a hand against someone good" (which is your excuse) is LAUGHABLE because why would you waste your time registering for this event if that's the case?

Seriously laughable.

Not just +EV, but in his "quick simulation", he said the cEV was 35.7k (or 3.57bb, or 357bb/100 hand winrate), all of which he wants to punt on via folding because he's scared to play against someone better than him.

It's nowhere near that profitable, and your posts show you actually don't understand what the definition of EV is anyway, and whatever "quick simulation" you did I'm sure is ******ed, but it's worth a good .2-.3bb in EV which is way, way, way, way, way too much to pass up against someone who some magazine said is a good player.

Yeah because a 55$ WCOOP is filled with top players and those doors are unavoidable... There is nothing shameful in passing a spot even if it's marginally ev+ in some situations, and there is nothing wrong in thinking you might not be the best player at the table, or at least that there are much better spots. But this I understand that your inflated ego has issues to assimilate

If OP was a better player than Villain, he wouldn't be posting here. Folding is absolutely fine and nowhere near a "disaster". Unless you get molested if you ever miss a GTO marginal +EV spot that is

*Facepalm*
Do you realize we invested 36k pre, so you need to have a cev of 36k+ to make up for calling pre ? Are you that ******ed that you think I'm actually saying that we have a global cev of +35.7k and that we should fold? Apparently so.

literally not what EV is lol

Literally what EV is when you do any simulation. Stack are 240k and startng pot is 137k. 35.7k is the EV you get on simulations with these parameters. That's how any solver work and it's pretty clear when I argue that calling is then marginally -ev. So sorry I didn't do the 36 minus 35.7 calculation so you could understand.

The fact that you didn't understand this demonstrates pretty clearly how conceited you are and assume how much smarter you are. Instead of questioning yourself you rather assume someone else advocating folding a 357bb/100 spot. Baffling

No actually, EV is defined as the average (hence EXPECTED) chips won/lost in the terminal nodes of the game tree (if you even know what a "terminal node" is)

"With these parameters" you mean not including specifying ranges? Oh lord, you don't actually own a solver, do you?

State your range assumptions and I''ll state mine (btw I ran my own sim on the ENTIRE tree--preflop AND postflop--all several million exit nodes--100 flop subsets [if you even know what those are] on MY solver that I can make sing like a rock star's guitar because I'm just that good at using it, if you werent so jelly and if your smooth supple buttcheeks weren't so thoroughly drenched in cum maybe you could put aside your rage and read some of my objectively heavily praised posts I've generously bestowed upon the forum--seriously, right on the front page you can read comments even from some of our more notoriously glib posters saying how great my posting is) because your stoopid lil "simulation" isn't actually a simulation, it's a ****** flailing, and the fact YOU don't get that is pretty lulzy

Now state your IQ before I engage you further.

Yeah it is because, whether you realize it or not, you sign a contract to try to maximize you EV (not win money, not win the event, but merely to maximize your EV) when you buy in to the event

So yet again, you show you're a clown who can't be taken seriously because at a very deep level you just don't understand this game. That's what statements like the bolded imply--there's a level of abstraction about what's going on at the table that you're simply not able to grasp. What a pity.

In fact, saying something like the bolded implies that mathematically you're not even playing the same game, you're playing some bastardized version played by an idiot in which it's ok to not maximize your EV.

"Let me pass on a +EV spot because I'm scared"--this is literally what you said.

When you'll have hair on your chest maybe you'll discover variance and that it's ok to pass on a very very marginal AT BEST, +ev spot, to lower variance. Not everyone plays 100,000 tournaments in their life.

... And the average EV of ATs on a subset of 111 flops is 35.7k .... Meaning the average chips you will gain on this boards, when starting pot is 137 and stacks are 240.

Now about you thinking I didn't input ranges.... I'm wasting my time talking to you when I explained 10 messages ago that I ran a solver, but I have to get you through all the process so you can understand why you need to remove 36k to the EV of ATss.

I really hope for you that you are just a 20 year old kid, too happy to flex virtually, because of not I feel very very sorry for humanity.

To the pleasure of never speaking with your again.

I didn't read the responses, but I will go:

Preflop. Standard
Flop: I lean fold
Turn I lean lead (monster card for you)
River, as played, lead. I think you need to bet anything less than A-Q, as played, I might find a call. I would expect to lose to some A-J's A-Q's and some pairs I could have gotten to fold by betting out, though, and totally tilt myself. If I run into monster, my read was just bad.

Finally some proper beef again in the forums. Been a while.
Think the best way to settle is for hu or crossbook in x amount of mtts
I’d bet up to 1k on eggs

Post graphs or gtfo imo

Last thing I’ll say is the small ev differences you mess up translate a lot into your winrate in bb/100.
Edges in poker are small and variance is crazy in nlhe but it is somewhat titling to hear folks say hey I’m gonna pass up this +ev spot because I’m so good that I can find more better spots later - like bro, the whole thing about being good at poker is maximizing your ev as much as you can on each node- the only guy in the history of poker who can ignore all this and still win is helmuth

It's an incredibly obvious contradiction.

Imagine saying Baseball Player A with a .320 batting average has as good a year as Baseball Player B who his .280. The difference is only 4 hits out of every 100 ABs, right, so it's basically the same thing.?

+1 sick of it

Everyone entitled to opinion
No one entitled to be a condescending pain in the arse

I don’t think people realise the amount of work @eggs does behind the scenes with significant investment in 20 core processing to grunt deep PIO solves, or (to a far lesser extent) the investment I’ve made with high level (wsop winning) exploit style coaches.

Eggs and I have been putting those two different approaches together and pm’ing about different scenarios for months now, locking nodes to model various exploit strat, finding some really unusual and amazing outcomes - and wd to recent JJ thread for finding another. I’ll say with some excitement and certainty that poker is most certainly not dead and that nonstandard bet sizes solutions are blowing our minds.

As for ‘can’t beat the micros’ comment, well here’s my results over past four years:
Online mtts: none
Live mtts $250 - $10k: approx 250
Cashed: 48
Cashed over $10k: 7

Add 8 x $10k satellite ME ticket wins in past 12 months not included in above

And forgive me for not posting link to Hendon mob for obvious reasons but if you need verification @eggs can provide it

So I’m not just some theoretical old dude who likes poker and reckons he knows more than the kids. My win rate has substantially increased over the past two years in particular as a direct result of putting some serious effort into coaching and analysis. I’m also well aware that I’m not the best player on this forum and you’ll note that a fair percentage of my posts include imho or I’m not sure.

So seriously, if you want to have a discussion on a topic @Topin then go for it, but if you ever respond to one of my posts with ‘that’s not how poker works’ or deride the efforts of players way better than yourself who put a ton of work in, then gtfo. This forum is way better than you give it credit for.

^^LOL oldsilver so successful he can just casually separate $80k in cash equivalent earnings from his "real" earnings and still be a crusher.

flop looks like a fold in these positions
AP shove river

It's not completely misranging you though. Adding KK into your check back range might not even impact the decision.

If you're facing a shove with TT and the only overpair/traps you check back are AA/KK, you have to call with a lot more than just that. TT is still getting called more by worse than better.

Do you think that the other guys response should be only be betting the river with sets because of your slick check back with KK?

Calling it a disaster is way too dramatic. Is anyone here piling on about how big a disaster folding ATs is advocating to call A8s?

What are we defining as an optimal open range closing in on a bubble with a bunch of similarly sized stacks?

You have a point in tough online games, but how big do you think the value of calling here is in terms of blinds against a GTO bot (ie: before accounting for icm)?

Folding is 0 ev
All we are trying to do is improve on that. Ats should easily be able to do this with the pot odds and the antes in there folding would be pretty ridiculous

So give an estimate / we can run the sims.

Obviously if we're imagining 3bet ranges that include K8o that eggs suggested it's a huge win. If it's a normal 3bet range that tends to lean heavily towards AK and AQ (with mixed frequency) along with TT+ish for value and some proportional offsetting mix of bluffs it's not going to be a slam dunk. Probably around 1-2bb in chip ev (I would guess closer to 1bb). Then you'd have to apply icm considerations.

A8s a pure fold or a mix depending on 3b range and is nowhere close to as strong as ATs, hence why no passionate advocacy for A8s.

I ran 3 sims on this spot actually (3 different 3b ranges @ overall 3b frew of 4.5% [which is pretty low], each range more diffuse than the other)

ATs a consistetly a pure flat (worth ~.2bb in EV at equilibrium)

Folding .2bb of EV pre is indeed a disaster. Thats how slim edges are in these online games.

For reference, flatting A8s anywhere from -.1 to 0bb in EV

Think about how many combos fold flop or x/r flop or donl turn or probe river such that if OP flats KK+ pre and of OP x/c KK+ then, having arrived in thr current node of the game tree, were now talking about KK+ actually being a significant portion of your range, absolutely positively enough to impact IP players strategy


No he can bet wider than sets, but you better believe he can run you over (i.e. you are exploitably weak) w/o any KK+ here.