I was just watching Tonka's last video and wanted to know what villain should be bluffing with in this particular hand.

IDK how to convert it since it isn't mine, but it is $215 sunday warm up and UTG +1 (~172000) opens to 5,800. Blinds are 1,200/2,400. MP (~54000) calls and Tonka (~58500) calls 8s8h in SB.

Flop is 7s2ckh. Tonka checks and UTG +1 bets 9,800. MP folds and Tonka calls.

Turn 9d. Both check. It makes sense for UTG +1 to check his Kx here and bet river bc what worse will call?

River 3c. Tonka and UTG +1 checks. Tonka wins. UTG +1 has Ac10h.

My question is, what should villain bet on river with as a bluff? I feel like basically any Ax hand should because, although he has showdown value, wtf is Tonka calling flop with except Kx and pairs?

I'm just a 5nl cash gamer, but this hand intrigued me.

probably AT would be one but if you bet every time you had A T/J/Q it would be way too often since your value range given the turn check is basically KJs and maybe KTs. i guess if you also check back with KQ you could slip more bluffs in but you still cant follow through on all your bluffs for what would likely be a half pot bet.

He can only bluff so much, and I'd rather bluff my hands that have absolutely 0 showdown value, as opposed to Ax that might still have some.

AT is usually behind here, but would it be that absurd for Tonka to float flop with something like a weak Ax w/BDFD? That'd be a little goofy, but I dont think it's impossible. Probably harder to do since the flop bet is a bit on the large side; I would prefer 1/3 here.

I don't see Kx ever folding and am not sure how much Ax Tonka should have here, so maybe our bluffs would be best served heavily blocking second pair hands villain might fold? Like T8 or JT? Maybe A2 as well since that's unlikely to be good considering our sizing on the flop?

I do agree that the flop bet size is not the best in the sense that we really fold out a lot of marginal hands a good player might float with but can push off by the river if we don't improve.

Not a lot since this board doesn’t favor OR but yeah exactly what previous poster said — the worse hands in your range that don’t have SD value including Ax that are worse than AJ

barrel the sheit out of the QJ here