Villian,who seemed somewhat competent, was playing ~30/16 out of 60 hands, folded 3/4 times to cb.





chat:

kxes1477: river a flush?
kxes1477: tell me
emanofold85: call
emanofold85: please
kxes1477: call?
emanofold85: yes

forgot to mention its a 10r

This seems easy fold. Semicompetitive 30/16 player doesn't most likely get polarized with the big river betsize so he may have A with decent kicker here in addition to fulls and flushes. Missed spade draw is less likely then turned flush draw that hit, turning made hand like 5 into a bluff is not very likely and combined sizing on both street doesn't seem like airball to me(without considering your range).

If opponent is thinking aggressive regular and interested in playing exactly this hand in this tournament the best possible way(most higher stake regulars do mediogre decisions in 10+r midgame because of multitabling tons) you are quite face up after flop and turn+river action would make very profitable bluff (bet turn, bet flushing rivers). Though then betting turn bigger would be even better because 2 large bets is way too much for 77-KK here without reads even with blank rivers.

Balance consideration: if you call blank rivers your opponents double barrel doesn't make money atc as you are quite face up after flop.

C betting ~785 there everytime then betting an ace turn as well if he calls.

Very weak line from hero, there can be many bluffs in villain's range. But we can't call this huge bet.
Cbet flop would be better.

[ ] though
[ ] tough
Cbet. You have like no extra info going into the river.

no don't cbet

wp

Why cbet? I get called by A and he has a lot of Ax hands in his preflop calling range, probably he even calls any A since I am on the button. I may get called by PPs but I can get value from them latter in the hand as well. He wasnt passive postflop so I expect him to raise flush draws a lot.

Also if my hand is so face up why would he bet so much OTR. A bet of ~2/3 would be much better for him if he has me beat. Can you get some info out of the chat as well? More opinions pls.

yea nh

A competent villain who thinks he has good post flop play will definitely call with a massive range button vs blind to a min raise. If he is doing this, we get little credit for the ace on the flop which is fine and when the ace comes on the turn, our hand now looks like a bluff, so imo, we can bet big on the turn and river to make it look very bluffy from the position we are in

I would call the river. Does he really have a back door flush? Would he bet so big with a weak ace? Also, he slightly overbets the pot, which seems like a bet sized tell that he is trying to push you off the hand without investing that many chips. Also, your hand is pretty much face up OTR.