Venetian Deepstack Extravaganza 7/5/08 nl $540

65 players left after dinner break; avg stack 64K; bubble at 27th pays $830; 10th pays 3K; 1st pays $51,000

blinds 1500/3000 ante 500 9 handed

co pushes w/40K stack, button pushes with 90K stack, hero in bb has 54K stack w/ pocket nines. Hero calls two pushes or folds? Most important: Please explain in detail your reasoning.

1. wrong forum
2. easiest fold ever

Very easy fold.

thanks for the input. Reasoning?

you have 18 bbs and with that action...reasoning over...

as everyone else said this is an easy fold.

You have a MIDDLE PAIR and saw a Push and then a reshove. What are you hoping to be up against here?

22 and 33 ldo

I prefer they both have A8o

Preflop I have 18bb but my M is only 4 due to the antes, so i have 4 rounds left around the table(probably only two rounds with any fold equity). Getting 2:1 on my money including blinds and antes on this hand. Hoping for nonpaired cards for a slight edge if they are both higher than 9 and a significant edge if one is less. Smaller stack pushing short could have range A5+ 22+ k8+ qj j10 109 98s, the second stack on button could be trying to isolate the short stack so I figured Gap concept not as applicable and he could have A9+ 66+ kj+ qj. I figure I'm dominated 4:1 if one has pair higher than me but if lower pair and/or higher/lower cards I have ok odds to triple up and increase chances greatly of placing in high prize, otherwise I fold and try to hang on for top of bubble $830 prize, most likely not making bubble. I don't know it did not seem to be such an easy fold at the time but maybe I erred. Anyway not that the result matters for the analysis but I called and they had AQo and AJo respectively and a Q came to beat me.

I think if the read is anything but pairs above me then the call can be justified based on 2:1 pot odds and chance to play for the larger prize if I triple up. But I can see how someone could disagree with that logic and be right.
Pokerstove shows that 99 does not play that badly against anything but higher pair. I thought that pair over 99 was very top of short stacks' range and the 90K stack would push over a wide range from the button since he is really only risking an extra 14K by pushing rather than calling the short stack and figured I wouldn't risk my stack after 2 pushes. I didn't play for 9 hours just to maybe make bubble and get a paltry 290 extra dollars over my buy in.

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888,248,592 games 2.364 secs 375,739,675 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.488% 19.29% 01.20% 171310536 10674084.00 { AJo }
Hand 1: 33.099% 31.90% 01.20% 283330872 10674084.00 { AQo }
Hand 2: 46.413% 46.30% 00.11% 411293628 965388.00 { 99 }


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444,124,296 games 1.132 secs 392,335,950 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 03.963% 01.49% 02.48% 6605928 10993578.00 { A9o }
Hand 1: 42.366% 40.91% 01.45% 181703376 6456084.00 { AQo }
Hand 2: 53.671% 52.54% 01.13% 233339400 5025930.00 { 99 }


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197,388,576 games 0.871 secs 226,622,934 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.673% 15.83% 00.84% 31247928 1663614.00 { 98s }
Hand 1: 42.425% 42.33% 00.09% 83559060 182556.00 { AQo }
Hand 2: 40.902% 40.06% 00.84% 79071804 1663614.00 { 99 }


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394,777,152 games 1.603 secs 246,273,956 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.063% 17.98% 00.08% 70975188 334848.00 { 87s }
Hand 1: 39.212% 39.13% 00.08% 154463328 334848.00 { AQo }
Hand 2: 42.725% 42.64% 00.08% 168334092 334848.00 { 99 }


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888,248,592 games 2.223 secs 399,572,016 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.622% 20.17% 00.45% 179197272 3978156.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 33.627% 33.18% 00.45% 294710724 3978156.00 { AQo }
Hand 2: 45.751% 45.63% 00.12% 405324468 1059816.00 { 99 }


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592,165,728 games 1.492 secs 396,893,919 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.460% 18.37% 00.09% 108786240 528624.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 37.244% 37.16% 00.09% 220019544 528624.00 { AQo }
Hand 2: 44.295% 44.21% 00.09% 261774072 528624.00 { 99 }


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296,082,864 games 0.711 secs 416,431,594 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.825% 15.61% 00.22% 46211364 645192.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 17.667% 17.45% 00.22% 51662772 645192.00 { 88 }
Hand 2: 66.508% 66.29% 00.22% 196273152 645192.00 { 99 }


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296,082,864 games 0.711 secs 416,431,594 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.078% 66.96% 00.12% 198244260 361872.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 15.291% 15.17% 00.12% 44911152 361872.00 { 88 }
Hand 2: 17.631% 17.51% 00.12% 51841836 361872.00 { 99 }


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296,082,864 games 0.801 secs 369,641,528 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.480% 15.25% 00.23% 45163008 670032.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 17.712% 17.49% 00.23% 51772176 670032.00 { 88 }
Hand 2: 66.808% 66.58% 00.23% 197137584 670032.00 { 99 }


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Well for starters your M is 6. 1500+3000+(500*9)=9000
54k/9k = 6

All of those random pokerstove things dont really help. You gave ranges which would have been more useful in pokerstove. FTR I think those ranges are too loose overall.

OK thanks for the input. What ranges would you have put them on?