btn 47/17 with 38% btn steal after 64hands








sb 30/24 with 77% sb after 5.3k hands...

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almost same situations, in first hand we have slightly better hand and better pot odds...so why btn has to be shoving over 70% to make profitable call for us and in the second hand sb has to be shoving only over 22% to make profitable call...what am I missing?

ok im a noob so I may be way off. But to me the difference is the size of the large uninvolved stack.
ICM turns the relatives size of the stacks into percentage chances of coming in all the positions.
In the 2nd example the large stack size of the uninvolved party means our chance of gaining first is a lot less then the other example.
Therefore .... not sure how to word this but simply...... we can "gamble" more because we are losing less.

That's my take.... standing by to be corrected lol. interesting post regardless.

First hand is a fold IMO, I think you'll have time to catch better cards. His button steal stat is useless. Sure he's gonna be taking down the blinds but he only had 3 bigs to begin with. He's just shoving because he's short. The other player can still take care of him and I think you have enough chips to wait for a better hand.

Second hand, well, could be a call. You and this other guy are seemingly very short and this might be the one chance you have to get your chips in the middle while you have him covered to knock him out. You have 5.3k hands with him?? you should have some sort of read on him...If you feel he's shipping any two in this spot. Then fine, go with it unless you think you'll get a better shot later on.

Mathematically, I'm inexperienced and unsure of what the correct play might be. I also don't play Hypers for this reason also. That was just my two cents as to how I might think about the situations.

I didn't run Future Game Simulation but it appears that the first hand is a fold and the second hand is barely a call (even if he's shoving the appropriate amount, it's still a call.)

I guess the pot odds are just too good considering he wants to shove 80% of his hands. It's a turning point situation in which the SB wants to raise a lot and the BB wants to call a lot.

In reality though, button should have shoved any two cards.