11R on Stars, 40left

Villain is a good Winningplayer. Did passive defend from SB 2 times before and didn´t 3bet since we were at the table (about 4 orbits)

is this a good Spot to float turn, and Shove River, if he checks?

I think, the turndonk could easily be a bluff with something like KQ, QJ, J9.
But i don´t exspect him to bluff the river often.
Also i don´t think he´´l c/c a shove.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 6000/12000 Blinds 1200 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t330624)
Hero (Button) (t323930)
SB (t483824)
BB (t568216)
UTG (t156294)
UTG+1 (t682927)
MP1 (t386691)
MP2 (t889967)

Hero's M: 11.74

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, K
5 folds, Hero bets t24000, SB calls t18000, 1 fold

Flop: (t69600) A, 10, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t36999, SB calls t36999

Turn: (t143598) 7 (2 players)
SB bets t72000,Hero???

eff stacks OTR will be 190k with a potsize of 290k

so no, not a good spot to get to the river with zero Equity.

sounds great in theory "my line looks strong and i would never do it as a bluff" but you 1) rely on him checking river and 2) him beeing light for it to work
if he is bluffing he is bluffshoving river quite often, if not he is valueshoving river always on this texture.
see how your plan is flawed?

What furo said, and how could there ever be a check from a guy willing to take that line with J9 oop?

I think he will give up very often, if i call the turndonk.
So if he bets the River its an easy fold, and if he checks, i don´t expect him check/calling me very often.

His Line 4 value doesn´t make sense at all, however I think all valuehands will shove the river nealry 100%

Eff Stacksize OTR is more then enough to have alot of FE.

I cbet almost all raised pots as PFA, so i think his flop-callingrange is very wide

do you really think he would shove the river very often with air on such a dry board?
what do you think villain donks on the turn?



I guess it would be a nice bluff line... btn opens with a wide range cbet 100% on a dry Axx board..

push

i think that line is way too advanced thinking without sick history between two players

he is good so his turn sizing with these stacksizes is either with the intention to shove river as a bluff or for value and i dont think he has that much air in his range anyway.

no. fold ott