The decision on this hand is that villians line is super strong, we are crushed by anything beating us but could be beating missed KK/JJ (or AK), but the pot is super inflated. Are we getting too out of line and just reacting poorly to a donkbet?

* error in title * . facing donkbet.

The question is, do you fold here or do you think we can be ahead enough to raise (flatting seems bad).

Not that it's wrong, but what seem bad about flatting here? I'm relatively new to analyzing hands but this is my thought process:

In this spot we have great showdown value so let's try and get to the river. OTT if you raise what is calling you besides a Q? You block the nut flush draw with your As. And if he has overcards to the board and they hit on the river (K or an A, even though you massively block him having an A in his hand) he's going to pay you off. Basically, if you flat here you're not really scared of ANY card that comes on the river and you have the chance to save some chips if he is holding a Q.

Edit: Looking now though, this is an awkward spot with stack size and pot size... Flatting does kind of leave you in limbo in that you can't really fold to a river shove anyway. Hmmm...

I agree, there is no benefit to raising the turn. His range is very polarized there - your As even blocks big spade draws he could have picked up on the turn. That donkbet means one of two things: either a hand that crushes you trying to entice a raise, or a blocker bet with a hand you crush and he's trying to slow you down and get to a cheap showdown. He'll call/raise with the former and most likely fold the latter.

The advantage of flatting the turn is you also keep your hand disguised and it could entice him to stab at the river. You might face a tough decision if he shoves the river but at least you have him covered by 40bb.

Bet sizing is strange here.

CO bets 850 into 1700 leaving 645 behind.

Hero has over 100 bb if he folds.

I add those two up and i have no problem folding.

The bet sizing is really weird and looks strong but I also find it really difficult to conclude Hero is beaten just based on that information. I think the vast majority of players would try to trap with a monster rather than lead out. This could easily be an attempt to look strong with a hand like 88-JJ.

This is a $50 tournament, so it's not rock bottom "assume they're all idiots" tournament stake level, so without reads, I believe villain to be at least somewhat competent.

I can't call here and, say, fold the river getting over 6:1 in a WA/WB situation(because I'm not WB 85% of the time), so I'm either folding the turn or getting it in there.

As I said before, I have 100 BB folding so if I'm folding the best hand, it doesn't mean I'm wrecking my chances, but I can also see situations based on the game flow where I'm just as happy shoving.

I just think calling the turn with any thought of folding OTR makes less sense than the other two options.

HI everyone,

I am new here. Looking for the correct posting page. I play brick and mortar tournaments with $50-65 buy. Am I in the right spot? If so, great and where else do you recommend I look for further questions, insights and places to post threads into this particular game as well? Thanks.

I've thought about this more and have reconsidered the reasons you should call the turn instead of shoving the turn. It's not necessarily to fold to a shove on the river. It's more about giving the villain an opportunity to bluff the river (or get it in if the river pairs them).

If you decide to shove the turn you are only getting called by better. Villain will fold his bluffs and over card draws. Basically, when you shove the turn you get called by a Q and fold out air. When you call the turn, you can still call a shoved river and lose to the Q (which is the same exact result as shoving the turn) but you have now also given the villain an opportunity to stack off with a bluff or made river pair.

Your point about being in a WA or WB situation on the river is actually more of a reason to just call the turn because any river card will not change the situation.

You make a good point. His bet size on the turn suggests he won't fold to a raise, but maybe that's the idea.

Agreed. It comes back to what Darth_Maul was saying about the villain having such a polarized range here. Because the sizing suggests he won't fold to a raise is exactly why he will show up here with both a Q and his bluffs. And we want to keep those bluffs in the hand.

And just wanted to add, these are some of my first posts on hand replays and holy cow is it beneficial to actually put a thought process into words!! Thanks for the discussion

That's what I'm wondering, since it is a $50 tourney should we give villain some credit for playing beyond first and second level poker. If so, he could be aware enough to realize that he can represent the few hands that scare us here.

In a micro tourney there is no way I'd give villain that credit. A bet like this is a monster 99% of the time.

I'm glad a good discussion got generated here. I don't think having 100bb left is that important because this pot was so inflated pre-flop the effective stacks are the size of the pot (before villians donkbet).

Raising seems bad and folding seems bad, interesting that we reckon calling two streets might actually be better to keep the few bluffs in his range. It makes a lot of sense. Why are we folding? what cards are we scared of on the river?

I will try to do this more often with problem/interesting hands, and glad you guys seem to have learned something too.

I fold here. He puts 60% of hes stack on the turn imo he has you beat almost always .. Someone above mentioned that he is putting out a blocker bet? I really don't believe so. If I know the player to be able to make this kind of move with worst I never jam turn.

Call/rr all in ,its hard to imagine pre call with aq or qq especialy u have a ace in your hand. Often here you are vs kk jj 10,10. Unless u have some reads and dome stats and ur oponent its a nit i would shove here. I dont think he is gonna bet so much with trips quads because she knows if he bet u have always a fold option, thid bet dont wanna call, he wants fold.

I see many players in micro tourneys play this line with 22-KK, gut shots, and pure bluffs. I think a common thought process for these players is " That flop probably didn't help him, I should bet/call.

Id bet flop smaller as you want to cbet alot on those dry boards and can get stacks in anyway.
Calling Turn and calling any River seems best.

Start with checking the flop and bluff catch/allow villain to value own himself.

As played, flatting is fine since we want to keep bluffs in his range to stack off poorly Otr - makes up for the times when we get owned by a Q. You're not protecting your equity that much by raising turn.

I was referring to the bet size relative to his stack - the fact that he's betting 850 and only leaving himself with ~700 behind. In the micros that is usually a monster trying not to scare off action.