Villain pretty new at the table so no useful info on him. His ISO is pretty small which i feel can be often AA and KK at least that is what i often see. Also small 3 bets seems to be often nutted these days. Anyways to me it looks more like AK or something at second glance given the action and just trying to put max pressure on me at this stage. I mean he has no reason to bet so huge with AA,KK or AQ as he can easily GII on 3 streets this "short" and don`t have to worry about much on this dry board. Also a couple of flush draw combos so either AKx, AK with a club or AJc, ATc, AKc Thoughts?


No Limit Hold'em Tournament T2,000/T4,000
Buy-in: $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit
PokerStars
7 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

Stacks:
UTG - UTG (T107,296)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 (T281,035)
MP - MP (T233,537)
CO - CO (T102,142)
BTN - BTN (T61,736)
SB - SB (T371,254)
BB - Hero (T111,936)

Preflop: (T9,500, 7 players) Hero is BB with T T
UTG calls T4,000, UTG+1 raises to T10,500, 4 folds, Hero calls T6,500, 1 fold

Flop: 2 5 2 (T30,500, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets T25,000, Hero calls T25,000

Turn: Q (T80,500, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets T245,035 (all-in), [i][color=gray], hero???

66-99? I don think I can fold

I´m prolly jamming flop over his big bet, his sizing indicates weakness to me and as played i´m not folding either, seems a lot like an overplayed AK or midpair he doesn´t know what to do if you bet. Sucks AQ gets there, but still not folding against this action and his sizings.

Does a random in Big55 ISO w/ 66-99, esp w/ that sizing?
Everytime i level myself ´´why would he bet so big w/ the nuts? **** him!´´ , i´m usually wrong

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2h5c2cQd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.30% 45.37% 0.93% { 66+, AJs, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcTc }
BB 53.70% 52.78% 0.93% { TdTs }

It´s a close one tbh (esp after i ran this into equilab), but i wanna fold so bad, unless i have some notes on him that he likes to click buttons.

There's no way you can only give him the most nutted AK only and call it a day

You´re always welcome w/ some ranges and thoughts

It honestly looks like he is trying to get you to jam the flop with weaker pairs/AK. Your range is pretty capped at this point preflop with your stack size. ( you should not be calling super wide in this situation despite the pot odds) You are only 30 bb deep and most hands will play badly oop post flop facing a or a series of bets post flop playing a guessing game with the opponent. Don't be a hero hero and fold this with still 20 bb to play with. Also it would help to know how deep you were in the tourney?

I'm on my phone but if you just add all AK combos you are prob already above 50%, does not seem unreasonable.

Do people bet flop so big for value really?

Do someting different pre flop. Probably jamming.

28 BBs? aint that a bit much vs random? Never calling with worse either.

Anyways thinking about the big C-bet maybe its a good play with strong hand as it looks weak, i have a lot of pairs in my range that i am never folding no matter how much he c bets so why not make it huge. As for the turn it also looks weak so on this particular board if he has AA-KK-QQ-AQ or something very strong this seems to be a great play as I have to call here. I mean the more i look at it the more its a call. But starting to realise this is a great play with strong hands as it looks quite weak. Or am i wrong as always? I mean the way he played i should prob call with any mid pair and Qx which is the only hands he is getting any value from anyways so why not take this route? Also he dont want action killers OTT and OTR so why not go big and look weak also.... Not saying this particular player though of this but it seems like a good thought? :P

Fold/jam pre.

V sizing is so ******ed everywhere it's really hard to make heads or tails of what's going on.

I would just xrai flop for value + protection as his range mostly feels like 77-QQ and I have a hard time seeing him take this sizing plan w/KK+.

Once he narrows our range immensely with this flop sizing I think turn is a fold and not really that close without a read that he goes bananas. His line looks very strong on a turn card where our range certainly has QTcc QJcc KQcc AQcc and we also don't block any value hands or have very good equity vs. his semibluffs.

Call pre has higher EV than jam imo fwiw.

It's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more likely imo that they pile 25k into 30 w/AA than random AK

So what would be a good sizing for villain preflop here? Because personnally, I'm not reading anything into this preflop sizing.

The sizing on the flop just seems to be designed to be able to get it in within 2 bets (flop and turn), rather than 3 bets. To me, it just seems like a personal preference. I remember an unresolved discussion on this very forum whether a certain situation warranted sizing bets for 2 streets all-in or 3 streets all-in.
The simple fact that there seems to be a thought process behind this sizing, rather than clicking the standard c-bet button, would make me skew villain's range towards value bets. (seconding Ralph's thought just above).
So there are still some AK hands in villain's range here imo, but for every AK hand in the range, there should also be at least a AQ hand. KK and QQ are definitely in imo. AA most of the time.

I am a fish but I am definitely jamming any flush draw over his big bet on the flop here so he can take those out of my range. But maybe its bad i dunno and i should call instead.(?)

no, you're right.

In a lot of cases it's fine to have two sizes. One being a size for good hands and the other being for nuts/air.

I think I'm getting it all in here rather than call off 25% of my chips and still have no idea where I am with his weird betting line. You might miss a call with 66-99 but I'll take the added 50k in chips and his fold. As played you're just hoping to fade a face card turn and river and not loving that option.