Trip aces on river. Is this a fold? - MTT Poker Strategy

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Trip aces on river. Is this a fold?

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04-05-2011 , 09:40 PM

lostbear87

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 353

Villain is 14/7/0 over 14 hands. Fold river? Guess I should have shoved the turn?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP2: 23,510 (78.4 bb)
MP3: 34,525 (115.1 bb)
CO: 9,045 (30.2 bb)
BTN: 9,932 (33.1 bb)
SB: 2,517 (8.4 bb)
BB: 30,605 (102 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 11,119 (37.1 bb)
MP1: 34,233 (114.1 bb)

Preflop: (200) Hero is UTG+2 with K

Hero raises to 750, 6 folds, BB calls 450

Flop: (1,850) 5

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 740, BB calls 740

Turn: (3,330) 9

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 2,164, BB calls 2,164

River: (7,658) 8

(2 players)
BB bets 26,926 and is all-in, Hero?

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04-05-2011 , 09:59 PM

JackHighFTW

adept

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 811

Think it's a fold on the river unless villain is very aggro and capable of pulling a huge bluff in this spot a decent % of the time.

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04-06-2011 , 06:53 AM

HUHandEH

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 5,458

sick spot...and I don't know if we can fold here.

would love to hear from others and the results at some point

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04-06-2011 , 07:25 AM

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

nh, like the small flop bet to induce.
turn 2/3 pot is std to set up a river shove.
river sucks, but i think its a fold since he has mostly flushes and its almost never a bluff from him. he lost value with his shove cause its a simple valueshove if he checks.

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04-06-2011 , 12:27 PM

areaman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 13,213

i go closer to full pot on turn after the flop call.

there are 2 types of people who chase draws, those who chase them to the river, and those who dont. the price is almost always irrelevant.

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04-06-2011 , 01:02 PM

theginger45

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 6,184

Nh until the river, river is a fold I think. Villain has to think it's extremely likely we have an ace and he's shoving anyway. He has flushes most of the time, boats occasionally and bluffs almost never. There's a small chance he could have the other ace but he probably raises before the river if he does.

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04-06-2011 , 01:16 PM

n0nplussed

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,488

Fold. No blockers v. hearts and I can't think of a hand you beat on the river other than a weirdly played Ax which he is turning into a bluff for some reason. The likelihood of that is about .2%.

FWIW I'm not wild about your line.

Sympathy:

Spoiler:

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