Hi all,
500$ online 9 handed T. We are ITM.
Blinds are 5K/10K/1.25K
I have 390K and villain has 320K (I do not have any stats on him - just moved to the same table)
Villian opens from middle position to 20K I have AhQd on the CO and I raise to 55K he quickly calls. (Pot ~130K)
Flop 6cQsKd: he checks I check (Mistake?)
Turn Ac he checks I bet 60K he calls quickly. (Pot ~250K)
River Kc he insta shoves.
Now what?

Flop is good. I like your check here.
Turn: ok, I might bet bigger here.

River: It sucks, but without a read, I think this is a fold.

Agree. Think turn sizing is fine.

Is pre always 3b?

Turn sizing probably wants to be like half pot at Least. Maybe a touch bigger. River. Pretty sick
Pre is fine either way. Might just be a call but idk

I guess if you always bet the flop with AK/AA folding AQ is imbalanced (because in such a case AQ is a very significant fraction of your range) but so many people check with AK/AA for pot control that it shouldn't look like a great spot to bluff for him. And if you aren't checking with AK you probably should be.

The real question is what on earth is this guy doing shoving here. Sure it gets called out of spite sometimes but is AK played that way? Definitely not in my opinion. He loses value usually, preflop also not matching well often. It is close to pot bet at river now but not yet there but i bet he gets more value with a smaller bet that leaves say 100k behind when he has it, given the risk involved for both.

Does he have other KX and got lucky and like some idiots bets out of relief here?

I fold too but only if i tell him i flip a coin to decide.

There are some bs miracles that can get there too like flush draws with something else going before or straight plus other going or 66 or AK or KQ QQ even etc.

Its so bad really that one wants to call just to see it but then you pay idiotic plays that way sometimes which is a nasty feeling. Its better to fold and feel bad but still alive given the risk of bs having happened. Game theory wants you to call some fraction of the time though too to avoid becoming exploited regularly.

If you check back the flop with AK and occasionally AA it implies you should probably call about half your AQs (assuming normal decisions with the rest of your range, ie: bluff the flop with AJ/AT, and not bet the turn with JJ/TT).

I think you could probably fold more than that though (and for it to be optimal) when you consider how rare he should be showing up with anything less than Ax - in part because you have so few bluffs, which is why don't expect him to call your 40% pot bet with JJ/TT and he might even fold AJ. It's for that reason that i think that you might even want to choose a smaller bet size.


If i had one guess as to his exact hand i'd go with KhQh. If not a weakly played AK. Then way down the list would be random flushes, KJ and even further down the list would be JJ/TT/QJ turned into a bluff.

Thank you all for your answers.
I folded so I will never know what he had

I've been in this type of spot a few times and I have folded each time.

Right after I fold it occurs to me that villain can easily have Ax and has put in the large bet to get me to fold the chop.

The size of the bet tends to indicate that villain doesn't have a K (why not just bet something that hero is likely to call if villain beats the chop?)

Could it be a flush, JT, or KQ/KJ/KT? Absolutely. It could be an attempted overbet to make it look like a bluff. But more likely I think villain is counting on you to fold your A and give up half the pot (125k).

By checking the flop you have conceded that you don't have AK/QQ+ and probably JT. Your turn bet looks like you have an A. Its a fairly safe river shove for villain if he has an A.

I think a good rule of thumb is to 3b AQs and flat AQo to unknowns and 3b reads. We can float and do heaps of stuff post anyway.

Flop and turn good. River is a chop or lose situation right, so as much as it sucks should be a fold in a vac.

I think villain's range when call turn is very narrow. Around 30 combos (AJs, ATs, A5s, A4s maybe... AJo, AQo, KQ y JTs), all underpairs he folds, and I don't think he wants to play a 3-bet pot oop with AK, JJ+ at this point, with your stacks. He have a pretty clear shove against your 3-bet preflop.

So, you're 73% ahead against that call-turn range, and this is your equity at next card (river):

https://imgur.com/a/bnLzo

There are only 7 cards (3 K and 4 T) that beat you, and you can't call a shove when they come on river.

I think that's a clear situation, with only seven really bad cards, and still ahead (so ahead that in cash game you should pay his eventual shove in the remaining 39 rivers), I think your ~halfpot bet is good, you're winning substantial chips in average with it... you are controlling the pot in some way...

The only thing you have to do is pray that none of those 7 cards will come on the river!

I like your analysis here. What tool are you using to come up with that graph/image? Thanks!

The software is HoldEq, clicking on "equity graph for next board card" icon, up on the left:

https://imgur.com/a/1mq8k

HoldEq can work in combination with flopzilla, I think they are two very useful programs.

Thank you.