gotta call the 66, you're gonna win it close to 50% at least I think. flop c/c is more likely 2X or a mid pair than KX, I think you see quads a decent % too =/

Well he's only played 9 hands so it's tough to gauge if his AF is anywhere close to his actual AF. Just because he's nitty pf doesn't mean he won't spew postflop. I said he shows up with AK here but I wouldn't be too shocked if he showed JJ here or some random crap that he definitely shouldn't be pot betting with.

Since limidonk became fashionable again with some folks

I did play 250,000 hands of 6-max limit back in the day in Party, so I'm only semi-clueless.

Would calling IP be bad?
Villain was 20/10 over just 10 hands.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BB: $23.90
UTG: $11.25
MP: $5.10
CO: $25.00
Hero (BTN): $43.65
SB: $15.65

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with K Q
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BB raises to $4, UTG folds, hero ??

I only got 14 hands data on BB, but last time it was folded to me in SB, I raised it, he 3bet and I folded.
Now one orbit later he does it again.
His stats were 14/14 over 14 hands so far.

Give him credit for a hand (again) and let him exploit us or 4bet with this last hand history?
If we do 4bet, do we 4bet/fold or 4bet/call and how much do we make it?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BTN: $14.10
Hero (SB): $35.35
BB: $25.90
UTG: $32.85
CO: $28.00

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with K Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB raises to $3.50, Hero ??

i'd fold both

any other thoughts on this spot in general? what about in position? or with QQ-JJ?

dip, I'd probably just flat and call a shove if utg shoves and CO folds.

Variance question - what's "normal" variance over 10,000 hand sets in NL$? Obv. it depends on win rate, style, game texture, etc., but is it pretty common to have some pretty wildly disparate results for extended stretches? Trying to get a grasp on what "normalish" swings (both up and down) are in online NL$.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

UTG: $107.40
MP: $116.55
Hero (CO): $112.00
BTN: $100.00
SB: $98.10
BB: $100.00

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with A Q
UTG raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) T A 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($17.50) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($17.50) 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $14, UTG raises to $40, Hero...?


Villain is complete unknown. Only read is he bought in for a full buy-in and the handful of pots he played so far he came in for a raise.

Easy call with the weird line and good odds?

Jbrochu,
On the river it is a fold you only beat a bluff andd he isn't c/r bluffing here.
But the turn is a pretty easy bet imo guys won't fold KK here because they are the second best hand in poker.

Yeah, your hand is under repped so you have to call here if you aren't betting or raising earlier.

The thing I don't understand is if he has a hand that beats me here how he could check 2 streets. Why would he think I'm going to bet the river?

The board is not draw heavy so its not like he's giving me a chance to bet missed bluffs. Doesn't my hand look more like what it actually is or maybe something like JJ or QQ?

I think you should've taken control of the hand on the flop and then avoided what is happening on the river. You've got position in the hand, use it and pot control or fold when the situation changes.

hand seems pretty standard up until river decision imo... idk, i can't put him on a better hand, i can't put him on a worse one either. usually when i get really confused i just call

Villan is 17/15/4 over 750 hands - we've been in a few 3-bet pots together, but nothing crazy that I can remember. I'm still playing at a meager 17/13/3 if that affects his opinion of me.

Flop/Turn bet-sizing bigger if I lead out? Is the River shove just too obvious everytime here? What do you think villan's range is after the Turn call, and which hands can I get value out of/how much (and do hands like AA ever call my shove?).

Poker Stars $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

SB: $431.90
Hero (BB): $722.90
UTG: $1250.65
MP: $1034.10
CO: $701.90
BTN: $398.20

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with 6 6
UTG raises to $12, MP calls $12, CO calls $12, 1 fold, SB calls $10, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($60.00) 4 6 8 (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, UTG calls $40, MP folds, CO folds, SB folds

Turn: ($140.00) K (2 players)
Hero bets $100, UTG calls $100

River: ($340.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $570.90 all in

10k hands isn't even worth looking at. I have 100k stretches that don't look like they were played by the same person.

Cool, that's good to know. So...I basically just asked if ~250-500 SNGs are enough to give me a good idea of my long-term winrate

Hey ****ers...I'm drunk...tell me what u do with that 85 hand...eh?

Squeezed Pot with TPWK, simple or not?

Villain is 27/18/3. He is an aggressive TAG, but I didn't have many hands on him on my laptop.

Poker Stars $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

MP: $615.00
CO: $622.55
BTN: $635.00
Hero (SB): $733.00
BB: $830.20
UTG: $254.55

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with Q 9
1 fold, MP raises to $18, CO calls $18, 1 fold, Hero raises to $72, 1 fold, MP calls $54, 1 fold

Flop: ($168.00) Q 5 T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $146, Hero calls $146

I wanted to fold here tbh, but peeling seems mandatory with TP in a squeezed pot.

Turn: ($460.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $397 all in Hero?

MS, who is villain? I would usually bet this flop, even though Q9 seems like a weak hand it's definitely in the better part of our range on this board. Im still thinking about the rest of the hand as played.

As deep as you were I think we can let bottom 2 go there but I would probably convince myself you (UTG) were trying to protect a big overpair and call. If the other guy was solid it's a lot easier to fold.

I don't think I would ever take control of this hand on the flop unless I had 3-bet preflop. (Which I would only do if I knew villain was prone to call with dominated hands.)

Lots of times I would bet the turn after villain checks, but since he was unknown, and I had no reason to believe I could get 2 streets of value from a worse hand, I decided to check behind and try to get value on the river.

There are plenty of nl100 villains where I would be thrilled to pump the pot as much as possible, but not against an unknown that bought in full and raised from UTG.

It turns out he was bluffing air. I posted it because several players typed stuff like "sick call" and "how do you make that call" when it didn't feel like that tough a decision to me because his line didn't make any sense if he had me beat. Even if he rivered a set of 2's or two pair 99% of n100 villains would lead the river imo (after pausing 20 seconds because they don't know what to do).

I'm glad I posted the hand though because you guys had some good comments on all the streets and obviously the river call isn't as easy as I first thought.

fold, 98s is good

being deep w/ 4 callers i'd bet close to pot on the flop. villain has good implied odds to call with a draw, and he's not going anywhere with an overpair.

i'd also lead bigger on the turn~110-115. after he calls, his hand looks a lot like a draw or middle pair, the king doesn't change anything.

i'd bet 1/2 - 2/3 pot for value on the river.

i think if you bet more on earlier streets you set your self up better for a value shove on the river.