Villain is a reg and is running 20/16 with 4.6% 3bet over 244 hands. Additional mental note I have is that he likes to play back especially in position.
On the flop I was kinda expecting him to raise quite often, but I don't think I should 3bet him right? or should I? Some players I would consider folding here actually or 3bet/folding but this guy is way to fancy to have the nuts here quite often.
Turn obv sucks with 3rd heart out, and my plan was to c/r and end it there. When he checks behind it seems he may have a heart and wants some showdown value for his bluff.
Now tell me if you like the river or not? My reasoning was that he would only value bet K
or A
, but on the other hand he would probably bet again in the turn with those, thus giving me the feeling I could still rep A
, hence my raise, I don't think he would ever call me here with 8
8x or so.
Thoughts?
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
Powered By DeucesCracked.com
MP1: $104.85
MP2: $78.00
CO: $276.40
BTN: $102.35
SB: $99.35
BB: $89.60
UTG: $117.50
UTG+1: $129.50
Hero (UTG+2): $100.20
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+2 with A
J
2 folds,
Hero raises to $3, MP1 calls $3,
5 folds
Flop: ($7.50) 6
3
J
(2 players)
Hero bets $4,
MP1 raises to $15.50, Hero calls $11.50
Turn: ($38.50) 7
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks
River: ($38.50) 9
(2 players)
Hero checks,
MP1 bets $22,
Hero raises to $52,
This is just a few hands later...
CO is 32/24 /8.3% 3bet over 34 hands
BTN is 22/18 /3.6% 3bet over 74 hands
BB is the same villain from the previous hand, so 22/16 /4.7% 3bet over 244 hands.
Since CO is that laggy, and BTN is quite aggro himself, I expect him to 3bet here on the BTN quite wide, so I was expecting to have the best hand here and to take the pot down pf here. Then suddenly the sheeiiit hits the fan when mr.fancy just ships it arrrin from the BB. I mean WTF. Is he just outleveling everyone here at level 8, or is he just shipping AA here?
BTW had a note that QQ is in his 4bet range.
It seems I need about 37% equity against his range if my calcs are correct, and stoving gives 33% against QQ+/AKs, but 38% against QQ+/AKo+.
thoughts?
Poker Stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
Powered By DeucesCracked.com
BB: $100.00
UTG: $78.00
UTG+1: $276.40
UTG+2: $100.35
MP1: $101.35
MP2: $89.60
CO: $116.00
BTN: $128.00
Hero (SB): $140.60
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with K
A
4 folds,
MP2 raises to $2,
1 fold,
BTN raises to $6.50,
Hero raises to $23,
BB raises to $100,
3 folds
Final Pot: $54.50
BB wins $54.50