Really dont mind that actually. Cause if he doesnt think I'm good enough to fold an overpair he has to slow down with the weaker holdings imo. So that gives me more certainty I'm beat.

I shove over on turn. If he flopped a set CO v blind good for him.

There are some regs I'd fold this to, but not a 28/12

I don't mind shoving the turn so much, but once it gets to the river, there isn't much you beat, so I think river is a fold without a good read that he flats QQ/KK pre, since that's about all you beat. I don't really like calling turn without a plan though - which is what it seems like you did fwiw.

I'm with everything Devin says on the T9s hands.

Post flop - I think he's got two big, unpaired cards here pretty often, in addition to some overpairs. I am not confident about this, but I think I'd call that flop, and I would be pretty happy if a spade fell on the turn, because as far as villain knows, I could have called the flop with two spades pretty easily. Villain is rarely going to have two spades. I think I'd shove (this is < a psb) the turn if a spade other than A fell on the turn & he checked to me. This is for value & protection vs single high spade over cards, and could possibly get something like an overpair with no to fold.


that AA hand -
I am looking to get chips in the pot asap this hand.

The first one is more questionable because of the station on the btn, and the high 3better in the blinds. But it is T9s...it's just too good to open fold imo. 9 and T make tp enough, and obviously you can flop a lot of draws. 98s and down it would be questionable.

The second I don't see why'd we'd be worried about a 8/6 behind us. Perfect guy to open wider into imo. 8/6's with high 3bet % are almost always 3betting from oop in the SB or BB. They are too dumb/nitty to 3bet earlier position opens when they have position.

AA hand. I think I actually fold the flop, given how much 28/12s love the call button and we have exactly what we are repping. But, it depends on how he plays postflop, but they tend to be passive.

You are utg, so how often does he c/r weak draws?

He's turn bet sizing is strange, but given the river shove is still reasonable size to wrt to the pot and 78 did get there, I think it's a fold on the river.

Also, there are almost no bluffs he can have that don't have some SD value. As for combo draws, there is like 45hh, 78hh and A3hh. You have Ah, and 78hh got there. Weaker draws, like Kxhh, Qxhh all improved by the river. KQhh beats us, and KThh, QThh, etc doesn't shove river. Probably the same with KJhh, and QJhh.

Curious - I have no doubt that the vast majority of players call on the river out of curiosity - I've done it myself, and it's a huge leak - identify them and exploit them senseless.

I'm just catching up with the thread, and the general conversation about bet sizing - my twopence:

Betting one of the decisions you make. The whole of your decision making process really resolves itself into a single question:

Is my equity + fold equity positive?

In Devin's example from the post I quoted, he had very little hand equity (HE), but a whole load of fold equity(FE) - the sum of the two gave him a positive expectation, so he made a bet, and tried to size it to achieve a situation where his HE+FE was positive.

You guesstimate hand equity from putting your opponent on a range, using your HEM/PT3 stats initially, then modifying your judgement based on bet sizing and any timing tells you have.

FE also comes from HEM/PT3 stats, adjusted by your interpretation of villain's line.

This is all that cash poker is, no more. Both ludicrously simple and excruciatingly hard.

Here's Deurdy's hand:

Hand#1
Villain/SB is 21/17 with 9.1% 3bet over 180 hands.
BTN was 36/14 over 14 hands.


Poker Stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $149.95
BB: $29.55
UTG: $105.85
UTG+1: $111.55
UTG+2: $28.90
MP1: $20.00
Hero (MP2): $100.90
CO: $120.60
BTN: $88.30

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with 9c Tc
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BTN calls $4, SB raises to $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($33.00) 9s 6d 4s (2 players)
SB bets $25.00, Hero ?

SB is 3 betting 9.1$ over 180 hands, so he could be up to ~14% or as low as 5% - not unwise to err on the side of caution, so let's assume it's really 6.5%.

6.5% gives us a range of:88+, ATs+, AQo+, KQs

T9 clubs gives us 33% equity against this range: There's $23 in the pot, so $10 call is 10:23 or 10/33 to break even; ~30%, so a call is fine just on hand equity it's fine - implied odds probably make the call even better. What about raising? Guesstimate that villain calls/shoves with QQ+, AK, and folds the rest = 2.6% 0r 2.6%/6.5% = 40%, so you have 60% FE v him, but you have another opponent, and he may well get in too ~10% of the time, so your FE drops to 50% for a raise, and if called your HE is prob ~23%.

50% FE + 23% HE when you need to raise pot is not good! So calling is OK, raising is bad.

On that flop, your HE is 54% to 46% against his 3 bet range. But he c-bet it.
We have no info on his cbet% in 3 bet pots, but typically, this will tend to 100%. So we get very little information from his cbet. We now know that we are WA/WB and its almost 50/50. We have massive HE and FE against half his range, and very very little against the other 50%. So what is profitable in this situation? If you raise and he folds, you had the best hand, if you call, you are really making the worst possible play because you are just delaying the decision you must make, and hoping he doesn't double barrel and/or hit on the turn. Folding when you have 50% equity also doesn't feel good!

Here, you have to raise. The profitable play is then the right amount!

There is $58 in the pot. You know you can't call a shove, so you must give him no indication of weakness, or he may bluff you off the pot, on the other hand, you don't want to put a lot of money in and then fold. A $58 bet has to work just over 50% of the time to be profitable, so slightly less will accomplish the task - ~$50 would be the right amount, but then you only have ~36 left, and if he shoves, you only need ~20% equity to call, and you've got 25% even against 99+,AKs. So $50 is too much because you will be committed. ~$44 avoids committing yourself to the pot, doesn't bet more than the equity in your hand is worth, and puts villain in a position where he has to call $20 in a $102 pot - doh! now villain has odds to call w AK/AQ and can shove the rest of his range.

Fiddling with the numbers isn't helping to make the decision - in fact it's getting harder. Let's go back to our best information: if he's 3 betting 6.5% or more, and cbetting close to 100%, then we have 54% equity or at worst it's 50/50. We don't care what hand he has, we will never know until he shows his cards, we only care about his range and since we are a flip or slightly ahead, with the dead money in the pot, we must just get it in. He c bets $25, you shove = profit. (+variance!)

Oh **** that AA hand was opened utg. I fail so hard at reading hh's i thought it was co v. blind. Ya I fold flop in that case until he shows me that he takes this line frequently.

Just found this thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69...-redux-232833/

Some excellent stuff from Pokey - well worth the read

I am trying to get some thoughts on this hand. I dont have any reads on the villian. My thinking on the river is that any semi competent player would bet that river card with air. Should that (if it is true) sway my decision to call although there is a straight and flush on the board ??

Also, any critique on my play of the hand is welcomed.

Thanks

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $179.95
SB: $98.40
BB: $132.45
Hero (UTG): $142.25
CO: $23.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with 6 6
Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 5 6 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN calls $10

River: ($35.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $24,

Joe, if you are going to play small pairs from UTG, you have to be able to extract maximum value when you hit your set, so I think your bet sizing is not good:

On flop you can either bet more $5-6 or go for a check raise - what you choose depends on villain.

As played, you should be v happy that he's called, because he's either got something, or is floating to push you off, so on turn you probably have a great opportunity to get in a check raise - assume he bets 10ish, you can raise to 35.

River needs reads, but given that the draws hit, I think your best play is to call.

How I think it should go:

Flop Hero bets $6, villain calls (pot $19.50)

Turn Hero checks, villain bets $15, Hero raises to $40, villain calls/folds

River Hero shoves, and if he hit the flush or can find a call with the straight it's tough!

As played without any specific reads, you should call regardless - if nothing else you'll get a read when you see his hand.

raise more pf, i always make it 4x from utg. bet more on flop and turn, you are deep enough that bigger bets shouldn't scare him away easily with his draws. river sucks and i don't ever like calling there, i would b/f ~ $20.

66 hand: b/f or c/f >>>> c/c

It would be a great spot for him to bluff, but he doesn't really have air here very often unless he turns made hands into bluffs. There also aren't many combo's of club hands he could have...A6cc and A3cc is it and he's often raise the turn with a straight.

He's going to check back a lot of hands that you beat, and definitely bet hands you lose to. I'd just bet smallish and hope he hero calls with A6, 67, 78, 88, 99, etc.

Peru, I don't really like the plan to c/r the turn. The flop is ok, cause these are the type of flops you are going to give up a lot on. But on the turn, the board just got worse for his perceived range, he often has sd+draw, or just a draw which he'll often take a free card with. I like a c/r here with air, but not with a made hand.

I think you give up way to much value, unless he just floats like every flop.

My rationale for c/r turn is:

1. I want to build the pot, and a c/r is useful in getting the guy stack committed before the river.

2. Checking is likely to induce a bet from a large part of villain's range: I think any pair and most of his draws + quite a few air hands. So on this flop and turn, I think a bet is more likely than a check to get a free card with enough of his range to let me get the c/r in.

3. If I double barrel, I'm likely to get called by his marginal hands and draws rather than raised, unless I make the bet sufficiently large, and that will scare away the weaker hands that I want to keep in. I think I really need some idea of his play to make the best decision here, but absent reads, this would be my default option.

4. If he bet/folds, I've probably got extra value from air/ low pair hands, from whom, given that the deck holds so many scare cards, I'm not going to get paid on the river. If he has a draw, I'm giving him the opportunity with a c/r to make a mistake in calling, and if he has a Jack, AJo, KJ QJ TJ, he has the chance to make a big mistake and there are lots of river cards that would kill my action against these hands and allow him to play correctly.

5. I understand the point about giving up value, and I suspect my analysis is biased towards the the players at my levels rather than yours. Again, I'm not prepared to disagree with you, coz you're probably right, but I wanted to be more explicit about my thought processes here. My operating principle is that come what may, I have to get a lot of money into the pot when I hit, in order to make playing the smaller pairs profitable. I for one find it difficult to decide what lines to choose against the different types of villains to achieve this.

FWIW, I agree with y'all about bet/fold being the better river line in the hand as played.

except when u whiff on the c/r (which you will quite often, imo) you accomplish exactly the opposite.

.
if he's the type to bet his draws/air, then he's just as likely to raise the flop, imo.

? i have no idea what this means.

there's no reason to expect him to bluff the turn, you just can't give a free card here ever.

thanks alot for the analysis, I appreciate it. after the hand, i figured that i did not bet enough on the flop and turn.

villian had Qc 6c and I paid it off. I thought there was a good chance that he was bluffing.

Deurdy mentioned that raising to $4 and getting called generates a VPP whereas a $3 raise and a call does not. I did not know this. Is it a function of Dollars or a function of BBs? i.e. at 25nl if it's raised to $1.00 and called does it generate a VPP? Or at 200nl raising it to $4 and getting a call?

But the biggest reason I've heard for making it $4 as opposed to less is that at these micro limits you are generally playing with weaker opponents and building slightly bigger pots generates bigger mistakes by these weaker opponents.

Curious about this hand and prior reads come into play...

I'm fairly new to the table here but after about 20 hands villain's AF is "inf" on all streets and has an avatar of a Nike logo that says "Just Bluff It". whatever.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $20.70
BTN: $5.25
Hero (SB): $24.75
BB: $20.70
UTG: $23.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with 5 A
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.00) 5 J T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, BB calls $1.40

Turn: ($4.80) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $3, Hero calls $3

River: ($10.80) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4.20, Hero calls $4.20

Villain has 6c3c

Within next orbit or so...same villain
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $26.65
CO: $7.75
Hero (BTN): $28.55
SB: $25.70
BB: $24.80

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 8 9
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) 2 8 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.10) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.90, BB raises to $22.30 all in, Hero...

Despite the result in the A5o hand, I think you should c/f the turn almost always. usually if they are floating, it is with something. Two overs, gutter balls, etc. With the board pairing, his air has decent equity against you, and your outs are tainted. If I wasn't going to fold the river, I'd probably c/r it. He isn't betting like he has Tx or better, and you might fold weak Jx hands, and some air that beats you (66, etc). That said, a lot of the draws still improved on the river (KQ) and people don't fold when they improve on the river. So folding is probably best.

Second hand is a fold. He might be bluffy when you check to him, but guys don't just run elaborate bluffs vs a double barrel often enough to try and pick him off here. Even when he's bluffing, he can still have tonne of outs and when he's not ur close to drawing dead.

with what hands that can call the flop and turn?

xPeru...

It doesn't matter the stakes, I play against 60/5 that fold 25% to cbets every single day and there are a lot of them on weekends.

I think this is a great great spot for a c/r with air, because when he does float the flop, he'll bet this turn almost always, and the fact he is betting a turn card that rarely improved his hand, makes his range super weak. So, if this is your read, that this guy is floating a lot, than c/r is ok.

That said, when he's not floating, he doesn't bet this turn a lot. Does he really bet 67, A6, 78, 54, etc? Sometimes yes...but you can't count on it, and you can't count on it being more than like 1/3rd to 1/2 pot. By checking you let him check back a lot of hands that he'll call a bet with, and when he does bet he sets the price and often can't call the c/r anyway.

I think you most likely way to get 3streets of value from this hand is bet bet bet. I think any other line, gets less value long term. And if he has a big enough hand on this board to get stacks in, they will get in on most turns regardless of what you do.

very good ?. I did not think of which hands at the time during the hand. I think I should cut back on the tables so that I am able to process things better in the heat of action.

And thanks from me too.