Quote:
Originally Posted by MadScientist
Peru, what you wrote above does not make sense. Either you have a 70% edge or you don't. Do you mean that sometimes you don't have a 70% edge? If that is the case, average over cases and determine your edge.
Like many SSNL players, you don't understand the concept of thin value or why it is important to seek thin value. Not puttin you down, just an observation.
No offence taken, you know I'm very much at the bottom of the learning curve. I don't see it as so black and white. If I'm playing a regular multitabler and I have lots of history, I have a higher confidence level in my range estimate than if I'm playing an unknown. Eg, some regs "never" play small pairs from UTG, so a K53 board has KKK as his only possible set. If I have KQ, and call from the button, and get checkraised, I am 99% confident that 55/33 are not in his range, which is polarised into AA/AK/KK/QQ/JJ and a bluff.
Board: Ks 5d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.829% 48.66% 00.17% 161850 576.00 { JJ+, AKs, 98s, AKo }
Hand 1: 51.171% 51.00% 00.17% 169638 576.00 { KQs, KQo }
as opposed to an unknown's range which might be as wide as:
Board: Ks 5d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.234% 37.78% 04.46% 262548 30972.00 { TT+, 55, 33, AKs, KJs-K9s, AKo, KTo+ }
Hand 1: 57.766% 53.31% 04.46% 370488 30972.00 { KQs, KQo }
Clearly v the reg, I can use my position to control the pot size, and v the unknown I can bet to get more information on his strength before deciding how big I want to plan to make the pot.
I might describe this as having a 90% confidence level that the reg's range is above - and a 50% confidence level that the unknown's range is as above. It seems to me that the higher my confidence level, the more I can exploit edges, because I am more likely to be right that I have one.
On your general point about the concept of thin value, you're dead right, I don't feel I understand it yet. Have a go at writing something for me please!