About sixth hand in so no reads

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+1: t3000 M = 100
UTG+2: t2990 M = 99.67
Hero (MP1): t2970 M = 99
MP2: t2970 M = 99
CO: t2970 M = 99
BTN: t3000 M = 100
SB: t2820 M = 94
BB: t3030 M = 101
UTG: t3250 M = 108.33

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is MP1 with Q Q
3 folds, Hero raises to t60, 2 folds, BTN calls t60, 1 fold, BB calls t40

Flop: (t190) 7 Q K (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t140, BTN folds, BB calls t140

Turn: (t470) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t360, BB calls t360

River: (t1190) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t600, BB raises to t2470 all in, Hero pukes

Easy call. No reason to think he's got clubs. Maybe AT, but he's not going to show up with AT enough to fold this.

Line looks good until the river... just check behind.

The Jc has to be the worst card in the deck for you.. it completes a ton of straights and flushes, and there are very few villain hands that can give you value now (maybe sometimes KQ or KJ, but that's about it). Betting isn't likely to win any more chips, but it could lose you some.. I think you definitely have to fold now, and that's a waste of the 600 chips on the river (again, that bet is rarely going to get you value from anything worse... but it will get action from better... and it could even get action from a combination of better/bluffs in such a proportion that you still really can't call).

KJ QJ KQ all call river. The straights that call the river have called a gutshot otf and possibly the turn and the flush came via the backdoor I hate checking this river in position

It's prob a fold now but I call anyway usually

I hear you... and I do think it's close.. but I'm not sure we have a good value bet on the river. Here's another way to think about it:

If he does call with all 2-pair hands (and really nothing else we beat, right?), then here are the combinations of worse hands he'll call us with:

KQ: 3
KJ: 9
QJ: 3
= 15 total combinations.

The fact that we have 2 queens just makes it very unlikely that he has a 2-pair combination on this board as our Q's significantly deplete the cards that make up KQ and QJ.

Here are reasonable hands that beat us:

T9: 16
AT: 16
Flush Hands: 4 (random low guess.. you're right it's backdoor, etc).
= 36 total combinations (+ maybe more flushes)

Is he likely to check the river with a monster? I'm not really sure. What I do know is that there are very few hands that can call a value bet that we beat relative to hands that beat us, and unless he bets the river with a monster the majority of times he has a monster, his check still isn't sufficient information for us to bet because there are just so many better hands in his range than there are hands that would pay us off that even if we decide his check helps us whittle his monster range down by 50%, then we're still not getting a good value bet.

Will I don't know that you can give him all 16 combinations of AT and 9T and if he is bad enough to play 9hTd like this then the range he calls we beat just got a great deal wider

disagree...

I hear that logic! Though I wouldn't be too surprised to see someone in the $10/30k chase a draw like this, especially when it might have picked up more equity on the turn.

Also, I'll turn the logic around on you a bit... I think if we're going to pay villain off in full on this river, then he played all combinations of T9 like a champ

Even if we adjust his range, I don't see how we find enough hands to give us value. You're right that AT and T9 do not make up a large part of his total range at all. However, most of his total range includes garbage hands that fold to a river bet and that we don't really care about... the Jc really narrows that range, unless he's a maniac, and we don't have that read. Obviously we only care about hands that give us value and hands that beat us. We can take another shot at that...

First, I forgot to include include reasonable worse sets in his range... add in 9 possible combinations total of 77, 88 and JJ. That now makes 24 total combinations of hands we beat vs the 36+ combinations that beat us.

Second, let's do what you're suggesting and discount the hands that beat us on the river. To have a good value bet, we need to discount his better hands by 36%+ (i.e. from 36 to 23 combinations, i.e. to value bet we need to beat more of his range than beats us when we bet, and 23 < 24).

But I think discounting his "beats us" range by 36% is too much... a value bet is just looking too thin to me, if not actually -EV.

I also think we'd need to discount the "worse-hands" part of his range; I'm not totally convinced we get called by all 2-pair hands... the Jc really narrows his value range. Saying we get value from all those hands is too much, imo.

I agree it's really close, but I do think a check is slightly better. And I definitely fold now. He may have some bluffs or worse hands in his range, but not enough to call imo.

Regardless of whether we pay villain off with a monster he absolutely did not play all combinations of AT and T9 like a champ for a number of reasons firstly there is that part of our range that beats 9hTd there is also that part of our range that can't pay the river and there is also drawing to a very small number of nut outs that AhTd has on the turn which is 2

checking sets when we lose to a miniscule number of hands in this tournament is bad mate

I hear what you're saying. I think it's an interesting river spot.. I know you and I have disagreed on a bunch of river spots just like this one before.

Just to be clear, and I know we agree on this, I believe we're beating villain on the river a ridiculously huge amount of the time.

But I don't agree that we can make a profitable value bet on this river... I don't think we can.

Would be awesome to have others chime in...

This is a good thread well done me! better than my normal rubbish anyway

and i'm ya know learning stuff thanks guise

edit# although im not too happy with the thread title goddamnit ajfdggfgfgffhhhhhf

i'm definitely in favour of bet river. calling or folding to the shove is pretty close, i probably call.

^^ good enough, looks like I'm soundly out-voted by dereds, ssnyc and zed ITT!

If anyone wants to chat more about this hand, I'm really curious: What's the worse made hand you're value betting on the river as played?

I obviously thought QQ was a check, though very close, but it looks like I'm soundly out-voted here, and it sounds like people feel that QQ is a bet and that it's not close at all.

If we're definitely betting QQ, are we value betting with every set? With KQ, are we checking behind or betting?

What's roughly your cut off for betting and checking behind on river?

Curious because it appears that my posts are off, and I'm wondering how far off they are (i.e. if people are not only betting QQ, but they are also betting every set and KQ, then I'm obviously thinking about this wrong).

definitely any set and probably KQ, even AK is kinda close. this is the daily lotto, people will call you here with hands like JT.

yeah checking back a set here is criminal

Bet/fold river looks good, don't think it is that close????

Yeah, if people are calling our river bet with hands like middle/low one-pair hands, then checking back would definitely be criminal.

If we're getting value from such a wide group of hands on the river, then yeah, we definitely have to bet... but I agree with Brad that it's bet/fold not bet/call.

i am folding, i mean i am all for stacking off light v $10 donks but they are just never bluffing or vbetting worse here.

Some good stuff itt thanks

I called i had a planned to call if he c/r me and thats what i did.
I'll post result tommorow if anyone's interested.

Upto a point i was happy with my play in this hand, now if only i had a fold button.
Idk maybe i'm being result orientated but as pointed out itt b/f would have been the best play on the river I just couldn't see villain holding AT/9T so i called and i was right .

sonofabitch showed K6 clubs

nice thread. good replies too

i think its standard until the river
with him checking to us im confident that he does not have a flush since we would just check behind two pair or AK
straights are unlikely as well.. but you never know.. its SSMTT.. and if he has a straight would he check raise on the river with it? i dunno.. seems like way in front way behind and we would just fold the hands that we are bluffing with or that have thin value like two pair or AK

his range is pretty much polarized to bad played sets/two pair (that we crush) and total air with a ~10-20% chance of him checking the flush to us?
seems like a standard call if you think it through but maybe he is leveling us and he check/raises flushes on this board

As played I would have to fold this after the c/r AI on the end. I would v bet the end as you did but no way am I calling the shove. If he bluffs me then hats off to him.

Bet/call.

But I puke on myself when he turns over KcTc.

snap call