Hi guys,

I struggled a bit with the decision, so it's more about your range in this particular situation. Should I shove or fold it? What will they usually have?
Let's say that these players are random, because I was just moved to the table three hands before and had no history with both.

Cheers as usual!

pretty close and I will defer to the math guys...don't hate getting it in or folding and would be interested to see how close the two actually are vs various ranges

this hand is the absolute bottom of my callingrange

but maybe its just JJ+, AK

I think this may be a fold. Of course, UTG+2 may have a wider range, but MP3 shoving after UTG+2 already goes all in, I would think that AQ is probably the bottom of his range.

you don't think the 2nd dude can have AJ?

I'm calling but its really close

We need to call 6100 to 12600 pot, so it's a bit less than 1/2, we need 32% to call, so if we think that the second fellow might have AJ as well (which I wouldn't say if he's random, because all of us still have M over 5), it's still "boarder" spot

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.943% 27.36% 04.58% 3092707887 518310404.00 { AhQh }
Hand 1: 28.036% 26.22% 01.81% 2964418896 204985118.00 { 66+, A6s+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 40.021% 35.88% 04.14% 4056254961 467930972.00 { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }

That's why I chose it, because sounds interesting.

Maybe, but conditional probabilities would indicate to me that not as often as you will see AQ+ as I don't think anyone folds AQ as the second in here and at least some fold AJ here.

So if we are looking at a range of hands that include the possibility of AJ, I think we can do a structured analysis of:

JJ - 99: 18 hands
QQ: 3 hands
KK: 6 hands
AA: 3 hands
AK: 12 hands
AQ: 9 hands
AJ: 6 hands (reduced from a possible 12).

i would fold AJ in his spot, prob AJs as well and get in AQ+ and like 88+

this seems like a pretty easy fold

do you find yourself and your range representative of a randoms?

so you would rather put it in hoping these readless randoms are spazzy? Ok

not my point...as I said in my first answer I am not sure what is best in this spot. Only meant that you telling us your shoving range in MP3's spot may not be indicative of the vast majority of players ranges

but it's probably going to be more likely that it's tighter than "correct" than looser, and AJ would be a fringe hand that gets alot of folds. When I'm making early 13-14bb jams I don't see AJ alot when my wager is matched by a random.

Fold imo, both ranges are gonna be fairly tight and AQ don't do good 3way vs 2x semi tight ranges. 99/AK or TT/AK

But you would have to admit to every once in a while seeing a random player doing this with KTs or like A9. Players make errors. These errors must be accounted for. Sure it's good to say that players should not call with much worse than AQ, but how many times did you shove in EP to get called by a crap hand only to steam after he sucks out on you when you had him dominated.

This is what ssync was saying. How do we address this in our choice of range? Me personally, I assume that the player is not making any certain errors until I have seen them make those errors in the past. Every player makes errors. I assume he is capable of making an error in his range, I just don't know which way. Is his shoving range too loose or too tight? You can assume the players at the table are bad - average at best. But what errors do they have in their specific game that makes them bad? Are they too loose? Too tight? Do they overvalue suited cards? Do they overvalue pocket pairs? Or Ax hands? One way of guessing is that about 50% may be accurate here (which is probably high) 20% are too tight and 30% are too loose.

you basically just made my point for me but readless we can't really assume anything and we can just go on a relatively standard basic range of a villain. If we wish to opr people and use location tells and so on then we can adjust the range accordingly. Standard basic ranges of villains probably won't make AQ profitable in this spot 3 way.

Would be folding pretty quick AQ doenst fare well here.

Even if we are not dominated we are also going to find one of the villans with a pair and some of our A's and Q's already in someones hand.

pretty clear fold

OK, guys, based on my earlier thoughts I folded the hand. The first raiser had AJs and the second one had TT. Ace OTR would have given me nice triple-up. I still think that fold was the best play here and I was happy with my decision.