I had a big stack but just lost a big race to the opener JJ<AK in a 4 bet all in pre pot...

does he always have a 7 here? I just could not see any hand that he c/c the flop with that bets the river that I beat

Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Aleksa2703 (MP1): t3080 61.60 BBs
vadka (MP2): t2905 58.10 BBs
SNGWizard (CO): t5610 112.20 BBs
Hero (BTN): t4215 84.30 BBs
letsgocaps8 (SB): t1455 29.10 BBs
s.canon (BB): t3695 73.90 BBs
kunkles28 (UTG): t1205 24.10 BBs
BIG_Muggsy (UTG+1): t3130 62.60 BBs
PETER BEATZ (UTG+2): t7455 149.10 BBs

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN with 6 6
2 folds, PETER BEATZ raises to t150, 3 folds, Hero calls t150, 1 fold, s.canon calls t100

Flop: (t475) 7 7 7 (3 players)
s.canon checks, PETER BEATZ checks, Hero bets t286, s.canon calls t286, PETER BEATZ folds

Turn: (t1047) 6 (2 players)
s.canon checks, Hero checks

River: (t1047) K (2 players)
s.canon bets t550, Hero folds

Bet the turn.

As played definitely fold river. Unlikely he is betting worse hands.

cant see what he c/c flop, and bets river with that we beat...

nh, you have showdown value and betting turn to fold out 22-55 seems pretty meh. i doubt he folds 88/99

river is a fold unless he is a sicko.

Pretty easy fold imo. If you bet turn you can fold out A or K high floats, but overall I don't think it's too profitable of a play. It would make the river an even more clear fold, though.

think of the distribution of players in this tourney

what % continues w/ 22-55 on flop, what % continues w/ AJ/A-hi?

what % blocks on riv?

compare to better hands that have you beat (7x/88/99) that take this line

nh, cant really see him betting with worse. Occasionally he might bet with a lower pp but i think thats pretty rare

I am not worried about a seven, I am pretty sure he has a K here

/Agree

How is Kx his most likely hand? The only legit Kx hand is AK and that 3-bets pre a fair % of time pre and folds some % on flop. If you're thinking he has KQ/KJ, then he's bad enough to have a bunch of Ax in his range and play it and the rest of his range badly enough (given a bad KQ flop peel) to justify a river call.

Aside from that, I would not fold 99 as you're getting 3 to 1 and the sizing is blockish. The logic for why unknown bad players may bet w/ 22-55/AJ/A-hi is that they don't know what to do so they lol-bet, they don't want to show weakness, they don't want to check and make a decision if you bet, some combination of those reasons, etc. This is a much different hand when you're OOP and you face a bet, because these donk logic reasons no longer apply (he can just check back).

Whether to call 66 depends on the answers to the questions I posed in my other post. I have not played this buyin level recently enough to have a solid grasp of the frequencies, but I feel it is very unlikely that those frequencies would make 99 a fold.

88/99 are very much hands that villain can potentially take this line w/ and are probably his most likely hand type (88-TT) with 7x possibly being more likely (but i would think sizing on river, and to a lesser extent, non-raise on the flop discount this hand, sheer lack of combos of legit 7x hands).

Psychologically he feels his hand is pretty strong (he's won more hands w/ 88 than with 55 in his life, the 8 > 7, only one overcard, etc) but not strong enough to raise flop, and by river he should feel reasonably confident about his hand so he puts out a small bet.

call

his river bet looks like a blocker that still has 66 beat i think...folding river as played. Def like betting the turn. he's gonna tell u what he has on the turn whenever you bet.

This

lol wow reading comprehension, i thought we had 99.

makes it much closer since 88 might valuebet here

i just can't see not betting the turn when you have the best hand so often

and what do you think he is c/c flop with exactly?

check flop