Pretty sure villain in this hand is a mid-high stakes reg. His stats are 28/16 over about 100 hands.

Our image is super nitty on account of being card and playing a bunch of tables.

Should we bet turn? if so, what is the plan on river? What to do on river as played?


Poker Stars $30+$3 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t350/t700 Blinds + t85 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (UTG): t29144 M = 16.06
UTG+1: t21719 M = 11.97
UTG+2: t37540 M = 20.68
MP1: t50736 M = 27.95
MP2: t8800 M = 4.85
CO: t49348 M = 27.19
BTN: t22412 M = 12.35
SB: t20063 M = 11.05
BB: t13430 M = 7.40

Pre Flop: (t1815) Hero is UTG with A K
Hero raises to t1680, 2 folds, MP1 calls t1680, 2 folds, BTN calls t1680, 2 folds

Flop: (t6855) 9 K J (3 players)
Hero bets t4200, MP1 folds, BTN calls t4200

Turn: (t15255) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (t15255) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets t9800

rivers is obv a call, i prob just shove turn tho although im def looking for other opinions

Really interesting spot man.

I mean, what is villain's range for calling your c-bet after you raise a super tight range from UTG and then c-bet into 3 villains? Not a lot imo, especially given your image.

Bet flop / shove turn might be OK with stacks, but I think the turn check is better. If you ship the turn, I think you get value-towned by everything better and get little value from everything worse (like I doubt he can call a turn shove with KQ, the first hand you're beating, unless maybe he has exactly Qs... that seems thin).

It's possible a turn check allows villain a free card with a worse and drawing hand, but I don't think we have a choice.

Were you check/jamming the turn? I think when he bets the turn, he's most likely floating the flop with a wider range that includes semi-bluff equity; when he checks the turn behind, I think he's representing more strength given stacks and the pre and flop situation. So I think it makes sense to bet/shove the turn and play more cautiously if he checks behind.

One problem with your line on the river is that I think it's possible for villain to bet the river for thin value a with worse made hand like KQ. Do you agree?

With a hand like KQ, he could expect to have the best hand a lot after you check 2 streets to him including a very drawy turn, and he could bet for thin value even though the board is dangerous because you could call with a few worse hands... he might be targeting hands like QQ, AJ, or other bluff catcher/marginal value type hands.

So I think we have to call this river. Given our passive line, I don't think villain's range is really polarized on the river between bluffs and the nuts; those are in his range, but imo so are more marginal made hands including worse made hands that he expects to be best a ton of the time.

Will, I agree for the most part with everything you said. I don't know what the plan was OTT, I think it was c/c, but yeah c/shove is better. And I agree his turn check is much scarier than if he had bet. the problem is that i can't imagine many hands that he flats the flop with that don't either have us beat already, or get there on the turn, and the few hands we do beat will usually check back the river also. i agree it's possible he could be v-betting the river with a worse made hand, but his bet sizing looks pretty scary, he's betting 2/3 pot and only leaving himself about 5k.

yeah this was a pretty crappy way for the board to run out...and you are opening tight from UTG so it's very possible he's betting against your exact hand...seriously, i think you are beat here pretty often I like a fold on river he's gotta be betting KQ for less on river and i think he can put you on this exact hand and therefore this bet size indicates strength

Zed, I agree. I don't think he has hands to turn into bluffs on the river. I also think it's pretty hard for him to bet many worse hands for value, though I do think those hands exist. And his bet sizing is scary.

I assume our line changes 100% with a different turn card... i.e. if the turn is the 3d, we're probably just jamming the turn... and if we somehow got to the river this way with the 3d on the turn, we'd be far more inclined to snap this bet off?