Stars $30/9m: Limp, extreme short stack on bubble - MTT Poker Strategy

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Stars $30/9m: Limp, extreme short stack on bubble

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04-14-2012 , 11:48 PM

Rusemandingo

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

SB is pretty passive, i expect him to lean towards folding and letting bb handle things rather than cooping or reshoving. Dude on my right is a bit overly aggressive normally but seem to play the bubble decent so i dont think hell be making too many huge errors in the next few hands. K5o good enough for a shove? What range are we shoving?

Poker Stars, $28.77 Buy-in (75/150 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12564362

CO: 597 (4 bb)
Hero (BTN): 294 (2 bb)
SB: 1,796 (12 bb)
BB: 1,813 (12.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K

CO folds, Hero ?,

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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04-15-2012 , 01:05 AM

slimshady1999

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 4,313

U have to shove in that spot unless u think someone else is dumb enough to donk off their stack before the big blind gets to u. Any pair, any ace, any face card or decent SCs Is a push

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04-15-2012 , 01:22 AM

Rusemandingo

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

yeah kinda what i was thinking.

that "limp" shouldnt be in title btw.

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04-15-2012 , 05:06 AM

Maniac81

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 398

Maybe i am wrong but without foldequity i would shove a pretty tight Range here like Top 25%. I dont know why people are allways so afraid to take the BB and then call with ATC which is +ev. I think its better to to this than to make a big -ev shove and you allways have a chance to get a good/premium Hand in the next 2 Hands.

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04-15-2012 , 05:50 AM

MetalSpork

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,294

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maniac81

I dont know why people are allways so afraid to take the BB and then call with ATC which is +ev.

Well obv it's +EV to call from the BB because you have over half your stack in and only a moran would fold there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rusemandingo

that "limp" shouldnt be in title btw.

Perhaps it's because you went limp?

Last edited by MetalSpork; 04-15-2012 at 05:53 AM. Reason: moran added to spell check

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04-15-2012 , 06:48 AM

SandmanNess

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,706

I bet 250 and fold to a shove and a call obv

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04-15-2012 , 06:56 AM

MetalSpork

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,294

The only options are fold, limp and all-in.

Some spots I limp so I can "shove" the flop. Here you are going to have a 3-way checkdown very often and the BB isn't going to fall for any funny stuff post-flop. On the other hand, you may get a SB added to the pot the times BB shoves over SBs limp or SB folds to your AI on the flop. I really don't like limping here though. I think you will make it past the SB often enough to make shoving a better option.

Edit: Oh I had a read from a previous thread where the BB was a solid player.*

Edit 2: Why don't we have BB read

Last edited by MetalSpork; 04-15-2012 at 07:05 AM. Reason: *That's my cue to go to sleep.

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04-15-2012 , 07:07 AM

dybboss

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,514

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetalSpork

The only options are fold, limp and all-in.

lol, so insightful

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04-15-2012 , 08:08 AM

SandmanNess

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,706

That's why you make it 250, so you get just enough juice to maybe make the sb fold, but still leave yourself a chance to fold if by some freak of nature the sb and bb both get all in. It happens more often than you'd think.

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04-15-2012 , 08:30 AM

#10

MetalSpork

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,294

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04-15-2012 , 08:57 AM

#11

cneuy3

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,323

Quote:

Originally Posted by SandmanNess

In this particular hand making it 250 is not an option as our minimum raise would be 300 and our stack is less than that making the only options as limp or all in if we choose to play the hand.

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04-15-2012 , 09:49 AM

#12

Rusemandingo

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

yeah spork bb is solid reg, didnt include read on him cause i didnt think it mattered.

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04-16-2012 , 12:05 PM

#13

Judaz49

banned

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 332

At first sight i thought this could be a fold but assuming other players wont make any bubble mistake and being SB passive i think we should shove here.If we wait next hand we have 25-30% chance we get smthing slightly better same goes for the hand after but that time we would have no chance but call. Also next hand if we shove it can be 3 way pot which would reduce our chance so after all i shove here 30-35% of hands i guess.

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04-16-2012 , 01:34 PM

#14

SkinnyStax

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 3,604

we dont even have 2bbs whats to discuss here? am i missing something?

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04-16-2012 , 01:39 PM

#15

ICMIZER 3 Representative

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 4,656

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkinnyStax

we dont even have 2bbs whats to discuss here? am i missing something?

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04-16-2012 , 05:06 PM

#16

SandmanNess

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by cneuy3

In this particular hand making it 250 is not an option as our minimum raise would be 300 and our stack is less than that making the only options as limp or all in if we choose to play the hand.

leveling

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04-16-2012 , 05:17 PM

#17

SandmanNess

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,706

on the serious note, I fold here unless the other short stack is a reeeaally good reg. Most bad or semi bad plays can't fold their top 15% against a sb shove even when ICM says they should, so if the bb is a reg he's going to be shoving very wide into the other small stack when he's in the bb on the next hand

Last edited by SandmanNess; 04-16-2012 at 05:23 PM.

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04-17-2012 , 12:11 AM

#18

vadiupoker

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 632

im shoving kx in this spot... good equity against a wide call and we need fe for the shove on next hand

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04-17-2012 , 02:54 AM

#19

Maniac81

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 398

Quote:

Originally Posted by vadiupoker

im shoving kx in this spot... good equity against a wide call and we need fe for the shove on next hand

First you want to make this shove

And then the Hand after you make a -ev shove again to keep your fold equity?

I just think its better to avoid this big -ev shoves and just make a guaranteed +ev call if i dont get a +ev shove Hand in UTG earlier.

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04-17-2012 , 03:51 AM

#20

Octavian_C

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 504

ALL-LIN

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04-17-2012 , 05:44 AM

#21

emitnulB

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Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,444

I'm guessing it works out to where we need to win about 40% of the time by pushing here for it to be better than folding, just based on playing around with our equity in a bunch of different scenarios.

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04-17-2012 , 02:34 PM

#22

SkinnyStax

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 3,604

this is one of those spots where i really just say f--- icm.

like how could you not jam 22 or KXs

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04-17-2012 , 03:11 PM

#23

emitnulB

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Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,444

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkinnyStax

this is one of those spots where i really just say f--- icm.

like how could you not jam 22 or KXs

Because we're going to win in the bb like 35% of the time and when that happens we end up with double the chips and position on the short stack.

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04-17-2012 , 05:47 PM

#24

SkinnyStax

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Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 3,604

where do you get that 35% number from?

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04-17-2012 , 07:07 PM

#25

emitnulB

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Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,444

I don't really feel like figuring out their shoving ranges and stuff, but it's more or less just a guess based on the fact that if they all play atc we win 25% of the time and if they all fold to the short stack he shoves atc and we win 50% of the time. How often do you think we win in the bb?

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