Stars $11 cubed...late bad raise-fold pre? - MTT Poker Strategy

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Stars $11 cubed...late bad raise-fold pre?

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02-15-2010 , 12:56 AM

ssnyc

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 38,129

75/1100 left

I have been pretty active

no reads on shover

Is this a fold since we opened in EP?

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t2000/t4000 Blinds + t400 - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

daboss1982 (SB): t186282 M = 20.25
gohnzer (BB): t46205 M = 5.02
Hero (UTG): t88993 M = 9.67
MinesweeperX (UTG+1): t181811 M = 19.76
72butsuited (MP1): t108268 M = 11.77
rooiste (MP2): t39840 M = 4.33
NagNog (CO): t61173 M = 6.65
balltrader5 (BTN): t121502 M = 13.21

Pre Flop: (t9200) Hero is UTG with J

Hero raises to t8950, 3 folds, NagNog raises to t60773 all in, 4 folds

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02-15-2010 , 01:08 AM

PageUp

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,386

kinda close but prob a fold since I doubt villain is shoving as wide as they should. Do you think they're shoving AJo here? ATs? KQs? I don't

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02-15-2010 , 01:09 AM

fimbot

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 883

Imo this is got to be an in the moment thing. You're both in the same sort of spot. Do you think he's 3bet shoving to UTG k/q, a/10 or a pair? That's all you're really beating unless he's leveling you. Either way it's a ****ty spot.

EDIT:
PU beat me to it

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02-15-2010 , 01:15 AM

Willyoman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 10,468

Super close.

Given overlay and stacks, we need a little less than 40% equity.

We only have 37% against 88+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+.

Still a narrow fold if we put ATs into his suited aces range.

I think you're right it's going to be a fold, especially given that you're opening from UTG here.

Question for anyone... should we be folding pre here with 22BB and AJs from UTG? Or is this totally standard with the plan to snap BB and MP2?

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02-15-2010 , 01:16 AM

unrealzeal

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 13,990

tbh i prob fold but serious ballers prob call...seriously i took about a week to watch how some of the great players do it and i saw a surprising amount of calls with this hand even AJo

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02-15-2010 , 01:17 AM

SamuraiPlaya

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,125

I doubt very highly that a random player is 3bet shoving worse from CO w/15bb thin FE...grrrr begrudgingly meh fold

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02-15-2010 , 01:19 AM

unrealzeal

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 13,990

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willyoman

i think folding AJs anywhere is wrong unless ICM has a large effect -- dunno if it's right but i'm raising AJs 100% and OP has been active therefore i think this is probably a call but i usually fold and never show the forum out of pure embarrassment

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02-15-2010 , 01:19 AM

fimbot

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 883

Quote:

Originally Posted by unrealzeal

tbh i prob fold but serious ballers prob call...seriously i took about a week to watch how some of the great players do it and i saw a surprising amount of calls with this hand even AJo

The thing about this is that if you're sweating good players playing higher buy in's, their shoving ranges vs reg's become a lot wider, thus making a call/snap call. In a $11 tourney vs a rando it's not the same, ranges become much tighter.

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02-15-2010 , 01:22 AM

SamuraiPlaya

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,125

Quote:

Originally Posted by unrealzeal

tbh i prob fold but serious ballers prob call...seriously i took about a week to watch how some of the great players do it and i saw a surprising amount of calls with this hand even AJo

no doubt about that, some of the less risk/averse LAGS may even call AT suited, KQ suited... etc..

They simply believe that the value of chipping up out ways the value of survival and forgoing small margins.. Theres another tourny starting in 5 mins obv

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02-15-2010 , 01:58 AM

#10

ssnyc

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 38,129

Willy...I can't see open folding this here...we need to chip up and there is a ton in these pre pots

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02-15-2010 , 02:04 AM

#11

smaug8821

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 3,835

pre is fine imo 8 handed.

This is probably a fold at micros without some kind of read.

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02-15-2010 , 02:27 AM

#12

unrealzeal

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 13,990

Quote:

Originally Posted by SamuraiPlaya

yeah i imagine those wackos 16-tabling snap call without thinking about it

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02-15-2010 , 02:28 AM

#13

unrealzeal

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 13,990

Quote:

Originally Posted by fimbot

that too but we've been active that tips in favor of calling if we've been tight fold...either way really really close

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02-15-2010 , 04:25 AM

#14

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

opening seems fine. seems like a fold now since we opened from early position. 2 positions to the left and i get it in.

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02-15-2010 , 10:22 AM

#15

mechajesusarmy

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 547

Here's the problem: what IS our plan with this hand?

We are raising pre, which seems fine, but to do that in this spot I think we really need a set plan to respond to shoves from different players. Are we calling shoves only from BB and MP2?

We have to find some way to call shoves from at least some of the players. If our line is raise / fold with here, when stacks are this short, we might as well have atc preflop... It's essentially a bluff.

That being said, you could justify it, I think we are always calling the other two shorties for 15k and 20k less, and I think there's also some value if one of the deeper stacks chooses to just flat

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02-16-2010 , 04:20 AM

#16

erc007

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,227

i think u have to r/c here getting 1.5 to 1/needing 40% and having 42% vs 77+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo, which seems pretty reasonable...and we're soooooooooted. i think u could consider folding if u had aggro players on ur right and plenty of resteal spots.

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02-16-2010 , 04:34 AM

#17

Rip_AA

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 2,918

wp if folded, just can't see a call here being that good versus a random

9250/fold would be my line relative to stacks around you

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02-16-2010 , 05:16 AM

#18

HotKarlMC

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 6,229

raise/foldings perfectly fine

opening is obv fine, and I think calling is pretty bad here considering it is the 11$, the shover is a random, we probably dont have the most aggro image and we opened from utg

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02-16-2010 , 05:53 AM

#19

cow1888

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by mechajesusarmy

100% this. I think you are flipping at best, if not dominated against this stack.

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02-16-2010 , 06:09 AM

#20

gathart

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 690

Try to see it from villans point of view. BB of 6, M about 4, new table so no image, in desperate need of chips, i guess therefore his range is very broad: any pair, suited connectors, A5+, KT+, QT+, JT+. This gives us - roughly 60%, so it will be just profitable therefore i would call.
Also in the $10 tourneys, the pay out will become interesting if you reach top 15, so in actual money I think this is a acceptable risk

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02-16-2010 , 06:32 AM

#21

streetwalkincheeta

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 5,132

Quote:

Originally Posted by gathart

Do you think that's villain's range?

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02-16-2010 , 08:29 AM

#22

jchauvin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,761

putting KQ in a random's range is really, really optimistic and i think folding is very standard.

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02-16-2010 , 09:05 AM

#23

ssnyc

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 38,129

Quote:

Originally Posted by gathart

no way is that a random's range late

I would expect it to me a LOT tighter

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02-16-2010 , 09:56 PM

#24

RIVERH8SME

adept

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 712

Your range for villain is nuts

Quote:

Originally Posted by gathart

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02-16-2010 , 10:55 PM

#25

Aces Suited

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 3,171

I don't normally do it but since we plan on r/fing to <20bb stacks shouldn't we just minraise pre? We have the same amount of FE and loose less chips when we're jamed on/3balled. As played, I just fold to his jam given shove on EP open dynamic.

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