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Spot to gamble? Spot to gamble?

02-03-2019 , 08:55 PM
Two hands prior I was chip leader with 170ish Had A2 in the SB. Button min raises from 2800 to 5600. I complete and BB completes. Flop comes 34x Turn is a 5. Button (130ish stack) I check and button raises I reraise he jams and has 67.

Have 30ish now.

I double up to 60ish during the orbit.

On BB with KQo. UTG+1 raises 2.5. Folds to me and I complete. Stack is about 20 BBs.

Flop comes T 9 8 rainbow.

UTG+1 makes a pot sized bet.

Me?

Here’s what I did. I jammed. I assumed I had 10 outs.

Against a range of 20% of hands I had 30% equity.

Against what he had ATo I had 37% according to Equilab.

I’m going back and forth on was it a good or bad jam. I could of waited on a better spot yes but

1. we were ITM (paid top 20 busted out here I go out at 14)

2. If it does work it probably greatly increases my chances of making a run on the final table. It may be my best chance to double up.

Anyone agree disagree?
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02-03-2019 , 09:10 PM
When someone makes a potsize bet at 20bb assume they are only folding air. Therefore it's the kind of spot you can have pretty much no bluffs.

You are way behind his range - 35% or so vs top 40% and there is not a hand I think in his opening range that you are beating, let alone the portion of thar range that pots this flop.

No worries, just fold and put the kettle on.
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02-04-2019 , 12:23 AM
fold or shove pre. I tend to fold more here.
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02-04-2019 , 02:37 PM
Looking back on it it was a ****ing stupid decision.

Should of shoved pre flop. The double up I had previously was against the same player. He shoved AQs in to my AKs so I think that should of gave me some preflop fold equity.

The A2 in the SB hand I got stacked by the effective stack button was a bad play that set that hand up. I should of 3 bet the button raise and that cooler probably doesn’t happen.
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02-04-2019 , 04:40 PM
You have to be careful with KQo against an early position open. How to play it depends a lot on villain tendencies. If he's on the tighter side, it's a flat pre or even a fold depending on how tight.
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02-04-2019 , 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul
You have to be careful with KQo against an early position open. How to play it depends a lot on villain tendencies. If he's on the tighter side, it's a flat pre or even a fold depending on how tight.


I thought the ranges matched up well. When he was AQ+ he was shoving so I assumed (and was right) he was on a non nutted hand preflop. When he jammed the T 9 8 board I put his range at 88+, AT, QJ+ which all crush me. I shoved based on having outs and was gambling. More on the gambling below.

Felt right at the time but I should of slowed down and gave it more thought.

I didn’t mention it but the hand where I became the chip leader I was CO and 3bet UTG’s RFI with KJs (hearts) Flop came Ad Qh 9d and UTG checked and I jammed as a semi bluff with the straight draw and back door heart draw in a worse case scenario.

It was the worst case scenario. Two black Q.

Turn came Td

River Jd.

Sucked out on his set.

So I was running pretty hot and I think that motivated me to jam again.
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02-05-2019 , 03:23 PM
I think it's important to realise that this is a classic tilt hand - you've just lost a big hand - the emotional impulse is to fight back and this clouds our judgement as to what is a good spot to gamble - People will realise this and call down lighter - so it's a time to play for value more and bluff less.

Also the fact that you got lucky with a previous semi bluff and everyone saw it is another reason to pull back on the bluffs rather than thinking I'm running hot so I'll jam.
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02-05-2019 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldgoat
I think it's important to realise that this is a classic tilt hand - you've just lost a big hand - the emotional impulse is to fight back and this clouds our judgement as to what is a good spot to gamble - People will realise this and call down lighter - so it's a time to play for value more and bluff less.

Also the fact that you got lucky with a previous semi bluff and everyone saw it is another reason to pull back on the bluffs rather than thinking I'm running hot so I'll jam.


Yeah. That’s exactly how it happened in hindsight. My whole mindset and game play changed after that cooler straight.

Even from SB with a good price a hand like A2o has horrible reverse implied odds. Need to 3bet/fold or fold pre.

I’m making adjustments to my SB complete and BB defending strategy to avoid reverse implied odds spots.

The bright side to all of this is I hopefully learned my lesson and it never happens again.
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02-05-2019 , 06:34 PM
My SN is Lagtard. Everyone that’s played me on 888/WSOP knows I’ll play any 2 cards in any given moment and I’d say I’m pretty good at it. I run deep and cash a lot and had a run of 4 1st places recently.

If I can use that image to take advantage of value it would probably net me more chips than a lot of players that are familiar with me.

I’ve done some and been caught doing some boneheaded stuff with super aggression late in tourneys lately.

I’m gonna make some adjustments. I thought about this and another hand I busted out with a lot so while -EV then learning from experience is always +EV.

Gonna put a lot of focus on blind strategy, Cbet strategy and ICM study.

That’s the 3 things for the month of February I’m putting a lot of off table time on.
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02-05-2019 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lozgod

The bright side to all of this is I hopefully learned my lesson and it never happens again.
If you are anything like me you will do it again and again but maybe less frequently :}
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02-07-2019 , 01:04 AM
Defend B.B, fold to pot.... stop hyping yourself up saying “to anyone who knows me”
You just said u think u should have jammed 30ish B.B. with kq in the B.B., pay for some decent coaching you bore
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02-07-2019 , 01:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Braaperz
Defend B.B, fold to pot.... stop hyping yourself up saying “to anyone who knows me”
You just said u think u should have jammed 30ish B.B. with kq in the B.B., pay for some decent coaching you bore


Hope your day gets better.
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