Full Tilt Poker Game #9023340448: $8 + $0.80 Tournament (69042749), Table 10 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:07:21 ET - 2008/11/17
Seat 1: Wing 1977 (40,290)
Seat 2: aranyhal (9,544)
Seat 3: yankmyrings (13,385)
Seat 4: MARKVART1980 (8,850)
Seat 6: alswimmer90 (2,160)
Seat 7: lightblizzard (7,935)
Seat 8: Oncel Scrue (2,513)
yankmyrings posts the small blind of 100
MARKVART1980 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to alswimmer90 [Jc Ad]
alswimmer90 raises to 2,160, and is all in
lightblizzard folds
Oncel Scrue folds
Wing 1977 folds
Thehua sits down
Thehua adds 7,445
Oxotnik777 sits down
Oxotnik777 adds 4,080
aranyhal raises to 9,544, and is all in
yankmyrings folds
MARKVART1980 folds
aranyhal shows [Ks Kh]
alswimmer90 shows [Jc Ad]
Uncalled bet of 7,384 returned to aranyhal
*** FLOP *** [Qh 8h 3s]
*** TURN *** [Qh 8h 3s] [5d]
*** RIVER *** [Qh 8h 3s 5d] [Qd]
aranyhal shows two pair, Kings and Queens
alswimmer90 shows a pair of Queens
aranyhal wins the pot (4,620) with two pair, Kings and Queens
alswimmer90 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4,620 | Rake 0
Board: [Qh 8h 3s 5d Qd]
Seat 1: Wing 1977 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: aranyhal (button) showed [Ks Kh] and won (4,620) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 3: yankmyrings (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: MARKVART1980 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: alswimmer90 showed [Jc Ad] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 7: lightblizzard didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: Oncel Scrue didn't bet (folded)

I was stuck because I had about 11bb's which is approaching push/fold mode for me, but I'm UTG and AJo is not a monster hand in my opinion. In retrospect I think I should've folded because I mostly get called by better hands (with the rare 88 or 99 call). If I fold, I can go through another orbit and hopefully pick up a better spot to shove, and doubling up with even 9 or 8bb's isn't horrible.

Shove is correct. ul.

This spot kinda goes both ways. I wouldn't fault anyone for folding, nor would I fault anyone for shoving. Keep in mind that you shove UTG so you should get some credit for your shove.

Running into KK is ul and gg and so on and so on

+1

this.

I understand it's unlucky and I'm fine with any kind of bad beat. But when I think of the math here my shove might not make sense to me. However, I'm trying to tend to be less nitty and more aggressive in my play because I think that's +EV. I don't know how to run the calculations but this is how I think about it:

If I shove and everybody folds I gain 300 chips (1.5bb's). If I shove and get called I'm usually behind, but sometimes a hand like KQ suited or lower pocket pairs call and I'm fine with that. If I shove and run into KK, QQ, or JJ I'm still ~30% to win so that's ok considering my stack size. Lastly, if I fold I don't lose any chips and will hopefully find a better spot throughout the next orbit.

Is there some program that can help me work on the math aspect of this, so that if I can assign people ranges I can determine if a shove is +EV or not? And if so, I pray that program is free