Thoughts?

Blinds 500, 1k with 1k bba

Hero 60k
Villan 85k

Hero in bb, villan utg+1 (30+year old)

Villan 2400, folds to bb, hero calls. Flop j57r, hero check villan check. Turn 4, no fd. Hero check, villan 4500. Hero raise to 11.5k, villan call. River Q, hero tank 1 min and shoves 45k into 29.3k pot. What is villains calling range? (Results, villan calls a7)

Why shove for value for 1.5xpot on a fairly dry board when you can bet the turn and shove the river? What is your table image? I assume you were bluffing.

I'd lead turn big a bunch here. Don't really get the check/raise turn as I don't expect villain to be betting much on the 4 turn after checking the flop.

I get why you want to take this line once villain does bet turn. Their range should be weak to middling. it's probably not a bad play. Just can't be doing it too often.

deuce blocker, betting turn anywhere from 33% to 100% pot would leave the river containing a pot size of anywhere from 10k to 18k (6300 pre + turn lead bet), so SPR would dictate a shove being just too large and not credible. As played, I felt the turn ch/r would inflate pot to a credible 1.5X pot shove. Having both 6s as blockers and a clear range advantage, I was indeed bluffing and hope to have all 1 pair hands snap fold. His perceived range was very week IMO and my table image was TAG, all bluffs had not been shown down until this point and a below average 3 bet % I would say.

I kind of like it. Looks like you chose the wrong person to do it to though. I assume you had a read on them for such a big move other than their age?

Their calling range should be sets and straights but some people like to call

“Their calling range should be sets and straights” lol

Ah yes UTG+1 with their 6x3x raise UTG+1 and checks the flop.

OP, what’s ur hand?

Persianpunisher, I totally agree their calling range is surely not straights, With me having 66, I think it is highly unlikely he has a straight (hence my decision to bluff turn and shove river, I’m repping the 63/68 defend of the bb relatively credible, as well as all 2 pair and set combos. I have significant range advance). Villan is perceived to have a very weak holding and overall range, checking flop, etc. villan has a7 and called river shove.

Sure, you have 20 combos of straights. Villain has at most 4 (not looking at your hand). More likely he has zero.

The problem is your 'blockers' don't block hands that were in Villain's range in the first place. When you are looking for blockers to bluff with, make sure they block actual hands in Villain's range.

He doesn't have straights, so he is going to be calling with lesser hands than that.

His hand does block one of your value hands, 77 as well. I doubt I am making this call, but well done to him.

I think it will look less bluffy if you distribute your bets a little better. 1/3 pot check raise followed by 1.5 pot jam looks strange.

When Villain checks back the flop it is likely he doesn't have a J or an overpair (given the number of straight draws out there). If the flop had been J72r then I could see villain checking back with a J. Villain could also have a set but I do think mostly he bets with 77/55 and sometimes with JJ.

So based on the flop action I would say either Villain missed the flop or has 88-TT/A7s/A5s and some small number of Jx (like some QJ/JT) and sets.

In this spot on the turn I think of 66 as a bluff catcher with showdown value with a shot at a potential straight. If I had a hand like K6s I could see the c/r as a way of taking it down right then and there. But with 66 I just wouldn't because we may be ahead but if we are behind we are bloating the pot.

The question for me isn't what Villain's range is, it is what Hero's range looks like.

Because Hero did not lead out the turn I would rule out Jx. The c/r itself is very polarizing. I don't think Villain will call down with worse except maybe A5s.

Because of the turn 4 Hero's range for the c/r now includes 6x. With 2 pair+ it isn't clear why Hero would check the turn. Is Villain going to bet a lot with no possible flush draw and unlikely straight draws?

So once we c/r, there are many bluffs and not so much value. And once villain calls it rules out all air. Usually I follow through on the river after bluffing the turn. Here I wouldn't because mostly villain is ahead and he has already called down a big turn bet. But if I did, I wouldn't tank. I would shove immediately.

Are you really shoving 1.5x pot on river here with nutty hands? Idk maybe but very odd line.

I think you should raise turn more to create closer to a pot sized bet on river. I feel betting 1.5x river just looks super bluffy. Are you really jamming the top of your range here and letting a villains weak to medium strength hands get out easy?

My thoughts here might be stupid. But at 60bbs, I see no reason here to run a big bluff. It would be nice to know your hand also. A hand such as 56 here would go better as a bet/bet/shove or something along those lines even though not sure you want to lead 5-6. I don’t see point of running this type of bluff with 60bbs in an mtt with a great structure though. I wouldn’t run it here unless I thought villains was going to fold an insanely high % of the time which doesn’t seem likely when villain calls turn raise even though it’s sized poorly.

66 is not a very good candidate to start bluffing with here.
66 just looks like a pure x/c and then otf probably x/ and see the showdown after he checks back.
Then turn sizing for the x/r is way to small as well

Pretty boss call by vilain though, weird bluff candidate by you, decent sd + drawing to effective nuts. How does vilain perceive your image? If you look somewhat reggish im guessing vilain will call super light even without significant history. If your an 80 year old grandma then the bluff might get through.

the call is definitely losing

I got in at the end of this level on Saturday. Great tourney. When did you get

I would c/r turn to 16k-17k and set up a pot sized river bet with my c/r range on this board.

Also wouldnt turn 66 into a c/r bluff on the turn. We have plenty of sd value to call and see a river card, and other 6x with less sd value to bluff with. If it goes c/c on river we win a lot. And facing a bet we have all options to consider, depending on river card.


As far as vilains A7 call. He blocks AA and 77. Doesn't block straights. Probably a fold. Maybe he had a live read or a tell on betting patterns and just thought you were super sus. Maybe he is just a station that got lucky that you are bluffing here.

+1

Do you mean with a slow structure and with 60bb you still have plenty of plays left? Or do you mean that such bluffs are better at a different stack size?

I think I expect his calling range to be mostly 44 even though he does not have all 44 due to pre; small amts of trapped JJ,77,55 (probably more JJ than 77 and 55 combined); and small amounts of random pairs especially the worst J's he'd open which is J9s/J8s somewhere around there.

I think turn is poor combo selection for fundamental reasons. I think something with a 4 in it is better for blocker reasons and distribution effect reasons, and I think a naked 6 is better for distribution effect reasons.

I think your xr reps way stronger than the sizing implies.

I think river is atrocious.

I think turn and river together are played really, really poorly.

In practice I don't think it makes much sense at all to not cbet flop, I think this xb alone coupled with general feelings about the pop means this V, like most Vs, will err on the side of being passive, occasionally stabby but not able to follow through over multiple streets, stationey, and bad

I think this makes flat turn even better exploitatively, you should not expect to be challenged with barrels as often as he can achieve, and a corollary of that is you realize your equity via flatting much, much better than at equilibrium (and it's almost surely a flat in theory anyway, again this is for very fundamental reasons).

Really your combo can survive multiple streets without the protection benefit offered by xr. He can still thin-value TT,99 here, we should not expect to always see huge river bets, we can definitely catch this combo sometimes on river.

That being said, one universe where bluffing 66 OTT makes sense is if IP is basically only underpairs--like a universe where he understands he has a large range advantage OTF and thus bets all air repping that range advantage, and bets all nutted stuff because it's nutted, but at the same time he struggles with assigning too much Jx+ in your range and thus does not value his TT- appropriately.

Its a universe where IP suboptimally, exploitably assigns too-heavy distribution effects to his TT,99,88,66,A7,87 et al. This would make him too merged with underpairs heading to the turn.

In that case his range is mostly TT,99,88,66,44,A7s,Ax and 66 not so constrained by distribution effects vs such a range

It's reasonable to call A7s under the assumption that OOP views IP as suboptimally concentrated on underpairs and unable or unwilling to defend those underpairs vs aggression appropriately--A7 worth just as much as 88,99,TT vs your value range at this point, and as tough as it may seem, if the top of your range is TT et al and OOP knows that then you better be willing to station at least some TT, et al.

Post #4 is a pretty good insight into your though process--its a very reasonable call by an IP player assigning such a thought process to his OOP opponent.

But I don't think 66 are ever a good river barrel unless he truly has no idea what his own range is and essentially has no calling range as a result. That's basically what you said in Post #4.

It's all extremely thin and arguably impossible to know in-game.

Basically I think your mistake here is bad and sloppy assumption-setting about real-life tendencies, being too presumptuous and flying too close to the sun as a result.

Think you did some good things with your ranging (thinking he's very underpair-heavy) though I disagree that 66 have relevant blockers. And I didn't see you mention him having 44 which is a big blunder if you're not thinking that--I am pretty confident 44 are the modal combo in his calling range.

You've essentially assumed one or both of the following:

1. IP is stupid: he either has no idea what his own range is, or he's such a pushover that despite him knowing that most of his range is an underpair he cannot defend accordingly for some reason (you never did tell us why you think he isn't snapping wide enough--if your response is "well, it's just what I thought" then that's pretty sloppy);

OR

2. IP thinks you're stupid: IP doesn't care his range is pretty transparent because he thinks you aren't capable of exploiting that, to the extent he deliberately and exploitably underdefend his own range vs aggression.