12/65 left. 6 gets ticket, 7th get 1.5k.

Starting stack 5k. Avg stack – 27k.

Our stack 15k. Blinds 600/1200 no ante. Hero is 9th in chips, shortest stack 6bb.

Hero UTG 7 handed - A3s.

Fold

Shove, but if you were getting chances to shove in late position, that would have been better, pretty much regardless of your cards. In a satellite, it is more important that the push gets through than your equity if called.

Depends how likely you are getting called. Info on other stack sizes at the table , especially the blinds would be helpful. Otherwise it’s pretty hard to judge with the very limited info. I would lean towards folding in general, but definitely more info needed.

Yeah, agree with deuceblocker on position being more important than actual equity when called.

Some thoughts -

How important is gameflow consideration in this spot (e.g. we don't really want to fold and pay the BB next, making a marginal jam is always better than making a marginal call etc), Ax blocker is pretty crucial in these EP spots.

If we talk in pure cEV terms - this jam probably makes money. I think there is less ICM in this spot than there appears - only half of the remaining field gets a ticket, we have much less than what the average stack would be on the bubble (50k), so do we just play closer to cEV?

Extra info - 7 handed, everybody covered me on this table except HJ nit with 6bb. The biggest stack on this table was around 40-50k and in EP and BB.

The extra info definitely helps. The small stack being nitty almost makes it 6 handed in a way, since he is very unlikely to call. With nobody being super deep and our shove almost making up 1/3 of the biggest stack, I can see this getting through a decent amount of the time. Even if we get called we should not be in the worst shape. My initial thinking was fold, pay the blinds & look for a better spot in late position. But 7 handed that’s only 2-3 hands we get to see after paying the blinds, before we are in the same spot again only with less chips and likely a worse hand. Definitely coming around on shove being the correct line.

Well I wouldn't be interested in finishing 7th.
In my view this sattie is just a move in a direction to win the wsop main event.
I would fold since we still have over 10BBs and there's too many players behind. If we had 7BBs I would shove.

If we were on the button I'm open shoving.

Most PFR's would advocate shoving A3s here and folding A3o. Is there really enough equity in being suited to make such a difference? We have A3 with 6 ranges in front - shoving is akin to pure gambling and you see it a lot from the really poor regs on the sites I play on. We're likely to get better spots to shove in the following orbits. MAYBE I would shove here with like 7/8bb - less fold equity maybe, but a hand that's calling an 8bb shove is likely calling a 12bb shove.

This is my opinion and the way I would think about the hand in this situation. My sat ROI is 1000's % so it's one subject I feel reasonably confident talking about.

very easy shove. there arent any real icm implications for you atm.

game flow considerations are of course irrelevant. you simply cannot have enough reliable info to make this shove not profitable.

Marginal fold no ante
12bb shove - 11.2%, 88+ 66 A9s+ A5s-A4s AJo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ JTs
13bb shove - 10.4%, 88+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ JTs

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...sle=true#gid=3

Yes and no. Apart from the extra equity, it’s also about frequency control imo to prevent ourselves from over bluffing the spot if we just jam every A3 combo here.

—-
Old silver, those are cEV jam ranges only, no? If there was no ICM in this spot I’d be very comfortable jamming this against every live pop.

yes, that's cEV

so, should we be shoving wider or narrower if opponent calling ranges are becoming tighter?

well, we would shove wider from a cEV perspective; but then the ICM loss from a bust out is so great (greater than a regular MTT) it could go the other way around too.

The more I think about it, I think equity when Called is less relevant in this spot, and jams should more be focused on going through (blocker considerations + positiion /stacksize dynamic considerations).

I think a good rule for this spot is we want to shove WAY tighter than normal in EP, and jam much wider than normal in LP, so A3s probably too loose. In that case Maybe we could jam 77/AJ+/KQ here, but my main concerns is that perhaps there is less ICM in this spot than it appears, and we can still play close to Nash ranges, just interested in ppl’s views on this.

You are going to lose FE though, you will have 4.5xBB after going through the blinds, maybe less if the blinds increase.

Oh, I misread. Thought we had the 6xBB. This is a really easy fold in a satellite. Don't push UTG light with 12.5x BB. This isn't close at all, which is maybe one reason I misread it.

I'd almost rather be shoving like QJo or something than A3s. We're gonna be crushed way less often by a calling range. A3s is dominated by 44+ A4+ which makes up the bulk of a calling range, whereas QJ is dominated by only JJ+ AJ+

I would shove really tight in a satellite with 12.5xBB UTG. You don't want to get called, and shoving UTG is a good way to get called.

Of course, that was the point I was originally trying to make. Min-cashing is everything and we don't need to take stupid risks to pick up blinds with 12bb left unless maybe if its a hyper.

Regarding my QJo comment, I'm not saying I would shove QJo and certainly wouldn't, but was just highlighting the relative strength of A3 and why it's such a bad shove. Also forgot QJ is dominated by KQ but still way ahead of A3 in terms of equity Vs a calling range

a3s plays much better tan Qjo against any reasonable calling range.

However, at this stage, I would wait until I got a little shorter and then steal in late position..

This is a fold from UTG. I think with no ante, I am probably tightening up a little bit.

Care to explain how? Is there a single hand in a calling range that A3s isn't dominated by, apart from KQ where it's 60% to win? QJ has 45/50% against all but the top end of a calling range. There's no way that A3s "plays much better".

You are 30+% with A3s against everything but AA. A3s plays better than QJo against AQ, AJ, KK, QQ, as well as KQ, KQ, KT. It is pretty close against 99+, AQ+, which is probably the most realistic range I show. If you make a range with enough aces, QJo might be slightly ahead.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

56,506,032 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AK, JJ, QQ, KK, AA	70.07%	39,019,809	1,148,976
As3s	29.93%	16,337,247	1,148,976

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

58,218,336 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AK, JJ, QQ, KK, AA	74.70%	43,300,804	374,093
QsJd	25.30%	14,543,439	374,093

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

190,065,744 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
10%	67.92%	126,589,509	4,994,334
QsJd	32.08%	58,481,901	4,994,334

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

196,914,960 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
10%	62.04%	119,383,321	5,562,251
as3s	37.96%	71,969,388	5,562,251

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

196,914,960 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
10%	62.04%	119,383,321	5,562,251
as3s	37.96%	71,969,388	5,562,251

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

97,601,328 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99	69.22%	66,357,084	2,413,005
as3s	30.78%	28,831,239	2,413,005

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

99,313,632 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99	70.36%	69,503,182	756,112
QsJd	29.64%	29,054,338	756,112

So it doesn't "play much better" and your ranges are WAY too tight. I don't know if you play many sats but you can certainly put in more Ax and way more pocket pairs

If you run it against a top 15%, 20%, or 25% range on Propokertools and some other software, A3s is still several points ahead of QJo. I realize that calling ranges are weighted towards pps and aces, and broadway card hands etc. are better to play postflop with or open shove or reshove with. For example 98s is really bad to call a shove with.

However, it people are calling a lot of aces and pps, they are also calling KQ, KJs, KTs etc. some.

In any case, there is no reasonable way that QJo is better to shove with than A3s. It is also obvious that in a satellite not getting called is way more important than slightly better equity if called.