Blinds 300/600 50, 8 handed nearing the end of 8th level (end of day) with 40k start stack, 50 min levels. 60 minute levels on day two.

Hero (41k) is utg and dealt AQ

Preflop: pot 1300
Hero raises to 1300, 6 folds, villain (bb, 50k+) calls 700

I've been decently active and cbet/barreling a good amount (enough where people noticed a bit), have shown down well for most part tho. Villain is 50-55 by my calculations, has been playing pretty std, opening a non nitty amount, particularly from lp. Was pretty std post, was def cbetting kinda wide but rarely 2 or 3 barreled without good hands. Obv this isn't a spot where pfr and cbet/give up frequencies are pertinent but I think it gives a glimpse into his general style of play.

Flop: Q28 (pot 3300)
villain checks, hero bets 1600, villain calls

maybe i should go bigger, w/e

Turn: Q (pot 6500)
villain bets 2100, hero raises to 5200, villain raises to 15,000, hero calls 9800

Thoughts? I was mostly planning on call calling, almost just yipped but mehhh

River: 3 (pot 36500)
villain shoves after about 3 or 4 seconds (grabbing chips while announcing allin), hero ?

And no, I don't really put many if any spade combos in his range, just bothered me how there wasn't even an ounce of hesitancy from a non gorilla ape**** monkey villain when my range looks really strong ott and if it wasn't on turn then river likely helped.

I can't fold this. He hasn't played it like a draw, so I think he has the case Q (most of which you beat) or possibly a set which turned into a boat. Do you really want to go into day 2 severely short stacked?

If you've been cbetting/barreling enough for people to have noticed then I think it's unlikely V would donk turn with a hand that beats you.

I'm GII it on turn as flatting his 4bet is only setting us up for an equally difficult decision on the river.

going into day two with 27 bigs is being short stacked? please, tell us more

Well, i never played an live mtt worth 1500$ (online either) it´s waayy above my head/bankroll, but why 3bet V donk-bet ott ?
Since you dit it,why not just ripping it (and hope doesn´t have 22/88) , not to many rivers that we like.
As played, river sighh fold i guess.

Villain is standard, playing pretty standard, c-betting wide and shutting down on turn river and 50-55:
Villain donk and 3 bets your raise on turn, then shoves river when the flush he is not worried about hits.

Unless villain all the sudden lost his mind you are staring at a boat on the turn and a very happy villain the flush card came out so he can get value from all flushes in your range.

Fold river.

What was villains stack btw?

the raise ott just folds him out a little too often and kills some potential value otr.

throw out 2 x 1k chips ott in disgust and rep KK as hard as u can. snap off his river bet. value against wider range and just a little safer.

He said it was 40k starting stacks. If you fold here, you are going into day 2 with 24kish. What will avg stack in the room be? Yes, he'll be short stacked. Not crippled, but not in good shape. Plus, I feel like there's a pretty good shot he's ahead in this hand.

definitely seems like V is overplaying Qx

wow gross ..we lose to like 9 combos (22,88,q8?)realistically feel like were beating like 16 combos (QJ,Q9,QT,KQ) unless V is defending q5s or something. Though I think this line hints way more to FH's than just qx. When he jams on the spade think it thins out the hands he has which we have beat even more (since you have some FD's in your perceived range), enough to warrant a fold imo.


I would have gotten it in on turn most likely on the semi wet texture, thinking he'd probably get it in wider than on river. Seems like you haven't been too out of line given info, hard to think villains all of the sudden deciding to 3b spaz OTT (could b tho, guess i dont play 1500's or live that often), so maybe safe to assume he has value hand and not going to barrel river with missed FD or something.

Call/call or shove turn.

no, he won't be shortstacked. if you think 30 bigs is shortstacked i have some really bad news for you

under avg ?

It all depends on tourney structure and average stack size. Some people do think any stack under like 27BBs or so is a shortish-stack because you may be 3-bet shoving to one raise.

I think on Day 1, this should really be a cEV question more than anything else.

Villain's line looks very strong, but I also don't think 55 year-old guys check/call flop with set there that often. And if they do, I think they would more often check/raise turn than lead it. Tough spot.

And not 3b the turn with 88 so strong

Why not 3 bet here big if villain? If hero has a Q...who realistically flats here? (Other then said example)

Cause he can get that value on the river. Nothing really left to fear with a boat. The mentality these people have is that they don't want to scare you off. They aren't ranging you to a Qx heavy range and strong draws and raising as value.

I think that's right. If he had a boat, average live guy will likely make a smaller raise and not get value or even call raise on turn and then make a weird small bet lead on river. Average live guys doesn't think to subsequent streets and how to stack someone based on bet sizing on prior streets. This guy here is so proud of himself after the hand but he doesn't realize he missed out on so much value against trip queens because of (1) horrible acting and (2) horrible bet sequencing/sizing.

I mean tough to fold otr as played on a theory basis. But his demeanor seems to scream strength and the facts he's pushing in the chips as he's saying all in is a pretty strong indicator he expects to get them back...

Im not folding personally, but then again I'm always looking for any reason not to fold...

Oh and move to hsmtt, its a $1500 trny ffs.

^ Answers are better in msmtt. Less dick waving.

Pinky and Brain plz stop derailing threads.

I think river is a fold, but you clicked buttons ott and now have to level yourself otr.

What's that raise sizing ott is good for? you remove FDs from your range then boat mining failed and you want to make gto call bc folding is exploitable.

raise/f bigger if you soulread that lead as blockbet or just call turn.

nobody is derailing any thread. it's sometimes different when you know this hand hours before it's posted and you've done all your discussion then with the people who don't suck. You posting to not derail is derailing more then anyone else derailing.

ok Joe, but save me(us) our illusions and let us swim in our ignorance w/o any obstacles.

Move to HSMTT where crushers like you belong.

you're trolling and derailing threads here only.

results?