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River decision with QQ

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12-18-2014 , 02:52 PM

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Hi guys.
This is Big 30 played on ps.es
V is an unknown playing pretty loose 32/25 (small sample tho )
Snap calls flop, calls turn (not that fast), snap shoves river.
Any thoughts on my sizing pre/post?
Call or fold? Why?

Poker Stars, $26.92 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #33479761

MP3: 16,235 (81.2 bb)
CO: 9,169 (45.8 bb)
BTN: 17,757 (88.8 bb)
SB: 7,453 (37.3 bb)
Hero (BB): 22,808 (114 bb)
UTG+1: 11,807 (59 bb)
UTG+2: 14,265 (71.3 bb)
MP1: 6,335 (31.7 bb)
MP2: 11,847 (59.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q

3 folds, MP2 raises to 400, MP3 folds, CO calls 400, 2 folds, Hero raises to 1,322, MP2 calls 922, CO folds

Flop: (3,369) 6

(2 players)
Hero bets 1,397, MP2 calls 1,397

Turn: (6,163) 8

(2 players)
Hero bets 2,784, MP2 calls 2,784

River: (11,731) J

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets 6,319 and is all-in HERO ???

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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12-18-2014 , 03:09 PM

goodmary

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 376

Just would have made it bigger PF and OTT. The flop bet its ok because its such a dry flop.
OTR i think we have to fold, his range includes Jx, 66,22,88. I think the only hands we are beating are 99 and TT that he may be turning into a bluff OTR, but its unlikely.

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12-18-2014 , 04:32 PM

CrunkMonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,304

It's interesting only b/c once you check the river he should feel pretty comfortable shoving his entire range here but you gotta know he's actually going to with the mid pair stuff cause otherwise, I mean, 45cc?

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12-18-2014 , 05:37 PM

Nunomdluis

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 31

the sqz i prefer bigger..flop it's ok and on the river i think u have to fold..if u say his playing loose i dont mind playing the turn using the check/shove line

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12-20-2014 , 08:08 AM

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrunkMonkey

It's interesting only b/c once you check the river he should feel pretty comfortable shoving his entire range here but you gotta know he's actually going to with the mid pair stuff cause otherwise, I mean, 45cc?

Thx guys.
Range? I mean flop is pretty dry, so his either floats me with backdoors (gets some more equity ott) or has Jx and sets, idk (we have no history so its hard to know what is capable of)

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12-20-2014 , 10:27 AM

Woodlands

newbie

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 36

I think you're range is pretty capped by river so as played its a fold for me to the shove as villian may expect AA-QQ to x/c... Personally I would have made it bigger pf to get value for playing QQ OOP in possible multiway (surprised CO folds given pot odds)... Maybe 1800-2000... Then a larger cbet which sets up a turn shove given effective stack... More AJ/KJ/QJ/JT in his range than sets, maybe even picked up FD on turn, whilst Jx/TT-99 may think you're trying to bully the pot.

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12-20-2014 , 10:33 AM

CrunkMonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,304

yeah, thus the word ONLY as in that's the ONLY reason it's interesting cuz he shouldn't have a super wide range here (he still has one though)

Just a tiny number of combos that you beat, 99/TT/77/6x maybe some ambitious pf, awkwardly played postflop 68dd but in general, if he's calling two with those he won't feel compelled to jam the river for half pot to try and bluff you off of your overpair and on such a dry board, MOST of what get's to the river should have you beat.

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12-21-2014 , 08:26 PM

Dragons_Egg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,861

I also think you should be raising more pre. Easy to say now, but by doing that you then leave yourself with a pot-size shove ott.

Stack-a-donk ott? I know this line is well-known nowadays, but the turn card isn't a great two-barrel card unless you held something like AcKc/AcQc, so leading again ott doesn't look very balanced to me. Plus you can get him to bluff the small percentage of the time he floated you otf.

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12-21-2014 , 09:23 PM

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dragons_Egg

Hi Dragon!
I´m not saying your wrong,but i prefer to be balanced against an good reg (or someone that i have history/dynamics).
Now,do you think a random folds Jx ott ?

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12-23-2014 , 01:55 AM

#10

davereedpoker

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 143

I think the fold is the correct play here. We can only really beat a bluff, because I think he's checking for value with hands like 77's, 99's, 10's. He can obviously shove with Jx, and pocket 66's, 22's and 88's. The only other hands he could be bluffing with are a missed gut-shot, or something like A2c, which seems unlikely. As you say, if you had more history with the player, this could be a call, but given what you know, I think a fold is correct here.

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12-23-2014 , 06:55 PM

#11

Dragons_Egg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,861

Quote:

Originally Posted by OutPlayU27

Hi Dragon!
I´m not saying your wrong,but i prefer to be balanced against an good reg (or someone that i have history/dynamics).
Now,do you think a random folds Jx ott ?

Yeah that's true. Maybe you could quickly try and OPR/Sharkscope him in-game. Barrel again if he has bad results or not much tourney experience, or check-raise if he has good results?

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12-24-2014 , 02:57 PM

#12

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Well,his snap call otf didn´t convinced me, obv we are only beating a bluff, so ...

Poker Stars, $26.92 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #33603261

MP3: 16,235 (81.2 bb)
CO: 9,169 (45.8 bb)
BTN: 17,757 (88.8 bb)
SB: 7,453 (37.3 bb)
Hero (BB): 22,808 (114 bb)
UTG+1: 11,807 (59 bb)
UTG+2: 14,265 (71.3 bb)
MP1: 6,335 (31.7 bb)
MP2: 11,847 (59.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q

3 folds, MP2 raises to 400, MP3 folds, CO calls 400, 2 folds, Hero raises to 1,322, MP2 calls 922, CO folds

Flop: (3,369) 6

(2 players)
Hero bets 1,397, MP2 calls 1,397

Turn: (6,163) 8

(2 players)
Hero bets 2,784, MP2 calls 2,784

River: (11,731) J

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets 6,319 and is all-in, Hero calls 6,319

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Merry Christmas to all, i´m gonna have a drink now

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12-25-2014 , 02:57 AM

#13

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,077

sick river, do you think he decides to turn TT,99,77 into a bluff here?

Think its possible and thats what I would be thinking about in game.. Jx has more combos tho like AJ,KJ,JT.. think its still proly a sigh fold

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12-25-2014 , 08:41 AM

#14

davereedpoker

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 143

Good call. In my experience most players don't try to turn TT, 99 and 77 in to a bluff here, and that would be my reason for the fold. I guess it comes down to whether or not you think the player in question is capable of turning those in to a bluff, and you got it right, so good call!

Merry Christmas!

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12-25-2014 , 11:57 AM

#15

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

Seems he plays wide enough range to make it a call w/o considerations about his plan on playing pockets.

Vs tighter ones you can fold vs some or gto call KK+ vs others.
Can make your life easier checking some weaker Jx otr too.

Merry Xmas guys yeah.

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12-27-2014 , 06:22 PM

#16

gregz41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,609

Quote:

Originally Posted by user12345

Nice call, but dare i say it's lucky more than anything else, you picked off one of his 4 bluffs when he has considerably more combos of Jx.

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12-27-2014 , 07:43 PM

#17

Sokz

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 1,331

If he has 54dd he has more than 4 bluffcombos tho

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12-27-2014 , 07:58 PM

#18

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by gregz41

Nice call, but dare i say it's lucky more than anything else, you picked off one of his 4 bluffs when he has considerably more combos of Jx.

Thx.
You´re kinda right, not to many players turn they´re pairs into bluffs etc.
Let´s say, my call was based on a ´´timing tell´´ i had in-game

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12-27-2014 , 08:05 PM

#19

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by gregz41

Nice call, but dare i say it's lucky more than anything else, you picked off one of his 4 bluffs when he has considerably more combos of Jx.

ok but still the price we get and that specific preflop spot where they`re deep enough to allow 32/25 open a lot and don`t fold to 3bet expecting 3rd guy to peel too.

Think he could jam some 76s hands (esp if he knows he peels lots of jacks pre), probably just too tempting to take a shot on a scare card compared to sd and being left with crappy stack.

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