River decision AK early stage Big 55 - MTT Poker Strategy

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River decision AK early stage Big 55

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10-15-2013 , 03:38 PM

MisterL

adept

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 799

I have no reads on villain. Preflop seems fine at this stage? My main question is whether to bet the river or not.

I just raised the hand before with aces and insta got AK afterwords. I don't think he has a big hand here on the flop because of his check. He would bet QQ and KK here because of the drawy board and I assume he wouldn't 3bet 99 pre flop.

Should I bet river here or is check/call the better line here?

I should have bet the turn a little bigger tho...

Poker Stars, $50 Buy-in (20/40 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #20008481

MP2: 3,054 (76.4 bb)
MP3: 4,610 (115.3 bb)
CO: 2,995 (74.9 bb)
BTN: 2,815 (70.4 bb)
SB: 3,020 (75.5 bb)
BB: 2,910 (72.8 bb)
UTG+1: 2,255 (56.4 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 2,955 (73.9 bb)
MP1: 2,110 (52.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A

UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to 120, MP1 raises to 320, 6 folds, Hero calls 200

Flop: (700) K

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

Turn: (700) 2

(2 players)
Hero bets 360, MP1 calls 360

River: (1,420) 6

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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10-15-2013 , 03:44 PM

tboneparte

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 3,378

Nh. Edit: meh bet real small and puke when he raises on river. Never happens tho.

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10-15-2013 , 04:03 PM

slipslope

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,407

4bet call or 4bet jam at this stage.

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10-15-2013 , 04:16 PM

WashUrHandsPlz

banned

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 2,570

shove vs random
511/f vs reg

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10-15-2013 , 04:51 PM

Economos

journeyman

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 306

I'd bet 420 on turn 750/f riv vs reg. Don't mind calling pre.

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10-15-2013 , 04:57 PM

bikram

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,651

[QUOTE=slipslope;40596901] 4bet jam QUOTE]

Yes, I would 4-bet jam pre.

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10-15-2013 , 04:58 PM

Turbulenc3

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 2,170

474 turn
jam river

checking river is bad

think pre is fine

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10-15-2013 , 05:05 PM

shichibukai

adept

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,018

700 river

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10-15-2013 , 08:29 PM

Yo'Maha

adept

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 819

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterL

I should have bet the turn a little bigger tho...

I agree...... 2/3 would have been a bit better right?

Either way I think I check or shove this a bit too often - losing value.

Looking over the hand, he checks behind way too often to not bet, and I think shoving loses too much value by folding out all the Kx and Q hands that might otherwise call.

I'm not sure what we are afraid of with that river card and his weak turn call, if we bet and he pounces. I think we have to v-bet this river really light and be ready call the shove.

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10-16-2013 , 06:44 AM

#10

pablito_21

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,872

Don't bet turn bigger - why would you want to tighten up his calling range, mostly consisting of weak made hands? We want him to call TT, which he's just gonna fold to 450ish.

Bet river again, he checks behind almost always.

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10-16-2013 , 10:16 AM

#11

MeowImQh

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,346

Quote:

Originally Posted by WashUrHandsPlz

shove vs random
511/f vs reg

511/f vs reg? really

tard

all ur posts are ****, do you even play poker

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10-16-2013 , 10:17 AM

#12

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

500/f

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10-16-2013 , 10:25 AM

#13

dereds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 16,782

Quote:

Originally Posted by MeowImQh

511/f vs reg? really

tard

all ur posts are ****, do you even play poker

don't do this, this type of post reflects worse on the person making it than it does the person it is directed to.

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10-16-2013 , 10:28 AM

#14

shichibukai

adept

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,018

Quote:

Originally Posted by furo

500/f

for par condicio..

500/f vs reg? really

tard

all ur posts are ****, do you even play poker

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10-16-2013 , 10:31 AM

#15

Turbulenc3

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 2,170

I don't understand why everyone wants to bet small.

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10-16-2013 , 10:34 AM

#16

shichibukai

adept

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,018

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulenc3

I don't understand why everyone wants to bet small.

700 -800 looks bluffy

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10-16-2013 , 10:39 AM

#17

Turbulenc3

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 2,170

Quote:

Originally Posted by shichibukai

700 -800 looks bluffy

We don't have many thin value bets in our range. We have all the sets and AK is like our worst vbet. I think we get to bet big w/ range and still rep bluffs.

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10-16-2013 , 10:58 AM

#18

shichibukai

adept

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,018

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulenc3

We don't have many thin value bets in our range. We have all the sets and AK is like our worst vbet. I think we get to bet big w/ range and still rep bluffs.

kj kts sometimes too
i dont mind jamming here but prefer a size that allows him to call more often

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10-16-2013 , 11:29 AM

#19

WashUrHandsPlz

banned

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 2,570

Quote:

Originally Posted by MeowImQh

511/f vs reg? really

tard

all ur posts are ****, do you even play poker

Im listening Meow. tell me what a boss like you would do?

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10-16-2013 , 11:02 PM

#20

gregz41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,609

Quote:

Originally Posted by WashUrHandsPlz

Im listening Meow. tell me what a boss like you would do?

I'd guess 1/3 pot given that's the only size I've seen him use.

On a more serious note, think 600 is good. Don't think you get raised often.

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10-17-2013 , 05:23 AM

#21

mashxx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 7,836

shove pre against 2k stack, bet 500-600 otr.

Your line is not bad though overall. Vs 3k stack I like flat pre more and I can see why are you afraid of betting this river. People will get stubborn with AQ/JJ

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10-17-2013 , 05:51 AM

#22

AimHigher

adept

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 846

Lots of discussion regarding sizing already so seems prudent to talk about why the river is a bet: If he has any two pair or better on the flop he is likely to want to bet three and every one of those hands is vulnerable on the flop to being outdrawn.

That means when he checks his range is capped at one pair hands that can be as strong as AA but are likely much weaker. AK beats almost his entire range and people will often call two with any Kx, Qx or hands like JJ/TT which checked flop as long as we size appropriately.

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