Is this really a fold? $22 Ten Man SNG - MTT Poker Strategy

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Is this really a fold? $22 Ten Man SNG

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02-29-2012 , 07:31 PM

y0gur7

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 23

SNG Wizard suggests folding and calling with 77+, AQ+, AJs+. The villain in this hand has been pushing any two from UTG on. The BB is a tight unknown. My reasoning was that I am almost blinded out, the BB might fold and I have reasonable cards.

Merge, $20 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: 1,230 (4.1 bb)
CO: 3,240 (10.8 bb)
BTN: 9,095 (30.3 bb)
Hero (SB): 1,435 (4.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K

CO folds, BTN raises to 9,070 and is all-in, Hero calls 1,260 and is all-in, BB folds

Flop: (3,220) 8

(2 players, 2 are all-in)
Turn: (3,220) 3

(2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (3,220) 2

(2 players, 2 are all-in)

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02-29-2012 , 07:40 PM

ymu

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 2,060

Wiz will tell you what you tell it. What calling range did you give BB?

It looks like a fold to me. You can work through a slightly simpler situation for yourself to see how tight you have to be here. Put him in the SB and you in the BB. Calculate your $EQ for a fold and for a win. The minimum equity your hand needs to have against ATC is $EQ(fold)/$EQ(win). With BB overcalling with about 5%, and you being screwed if he does, and the (non-ICM) possibility that BB will call and lose, fold looks good here.

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02-29-2012 , 07:48 PM

dybboss

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,515

hero has more than bb, so bb is overcalling with QQ+ probably, thats 1.5%

so it looks like hero should call 88+ Aks

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02-29-2012 , 07:50 PM

WeakTight.eh

Guest

Posts: n/a

Looks like a fold. SNG wiz range that you have listed looks about right.

This is a call likely if BB/CO/BTN are all at 4000 stacks, but BB being as short as you changes things, you're basically battling it out for 3rd with BB and you should play accordingly.

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03-01-2012 , 04:42 AM

Monkey Banana

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 40,103

It looks like a fold because you could eat the blinds again and he really can't.

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03-01-2012 , 08:00 AM

Pagination1

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 132

Without a doubt, this is a fold imo - but simply because the BB is very short stacked too - I would be calling with TT/AK+ only in this spot - if I think the villain is shoving ATC - which is practically the right thing for him to be doing here.

77 - seems very loose in this spot, with a short stack in the BB.

What shoving ranges were you giving to the villain and what calling ranges for the SB/BB?

They key influence here is the short stack in the BB - if the BB also had around 3,000 chips, I would be calling with 77, as the bubble factor is less for you in that spot.

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03-01-2012 , 12:37 PM

y0gur7

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 23

I had the villain pushing 96%(he showed down the 36o) and the BB calling with 15%. I thought this was a questionable play when it happened, but I was very surprised to see SNG Wiz suggested fold even with villain pushing 100% and the BB only calling with AA.

If your goal was to place in first rather than make the money, would it change your decision?

If the blinds were to rise before the hero is in the bb again does that impact your decision?

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