play freerolls.........

The SC number is 48, which means M~16, but it refers to being the sb against the bb. Here we have two opponents behind, so it's approximately M=8, so a bit lower than M=9. Therefore it's probably not unexploitable (but still a good shove).

yeah didnt see that at first thanks for pointing that out thats a pretty big ante for this level too i think this makes the shove a lot better then the way i first read it

As inexperienced as I am, I think it's a definite shove, unless it's against a super-confident/running hot opponent running hot ( aka Mirzi). Of course, hindsight is 20-20, but then again, this seems like a +eV shove for sure. The only issue is how wide you might be called.

No offense intended, but how do you come up with 44+? I haven't checked the pokerstove numbers for this, but is there a specific reason why 44 is the min pair?

no it's exactly 20bb adjusted for antes (M = 10), and 16BB (M = 8) without.

well i'm pretty sure we can shove 44 here unexploitably so i assume it's the first pair we can raise/call but i don't know if that's correct or not tbh...it's what i always thought anyway

I don't see how that follows. It all depends on his shove calling range vs his reshove range which you just have to estimate basically, you can't put a definite number on it.

yeah you are right...i knew there was something wrong with my logic...we have to assign a re-shove range to each player so the pair would be different for each one...think it'd be something like 44/55 vs bb and 77/88 vs sb

In the chapter in NLHE Theory & Practice, Sklansky states that you can take antes into account by looking at it in terms of laying odds. If there are no antes, we lay 48 to 3 or 16 to 1. And since the current pot is always 1M, the equivalent would be laying 16M to 1M. Or is this wrong?

it's not rocketscience.
SC is 48 so you can shove 24 BB from the SB with no antes and 12 from the button (I wrote 16 before cause I didnt doubt your maths, just saw you hadnt taken antes into account but obv it's 48/4).
with antes the pot is 5/3 as big to begin with so you can shove 5/3 as much. 12 * 5/3 = 20.

Also, ye you can shove 16M from the SB and 8M from the BU cause obv 8x 2.5 = 20.

Oh so that's how you get M instead of BBs from the S C charts. Your maximum M divided by the (1 M) pot for any given hand.

*picks up TPFAP and eats McChicken* nomnomnom

I don't know if that's right or not TBH ...

I think it's completely based on the stacks behind. I say the larger the stacks behind you, the more apt I am to fold. They'd be more likely to call w/ large stacks, especially the big blind, who would be getting 1.14:1. Even if he puts you on a range as tight as the top 11% he can call almost up to top 20% and show a profit. If you have a looser image than someone who'd only push top 11%, then I'd consider folding because you are getting called here more than 1/4 of the time in a flip or worse situation.

The reason I say I'd base it on the stacks behind is because, in live play especially, people tend to fold when they should be calling if it amounts to a large percentage of their stack. Someone with 55k in the big blind would consider folding a hand like AQo or 66 to your shove from the CO a lot more than someone with 1.8m even though both players will show a profit if they assume you are shoving top 11% of hands. So I guess I am saying you should evaluate the fear equity (larger stacks having less and smaller stacks having more) your stack has with the players behind along with your image.

Shove is +cEV yeah, dunno if it's optimal bc raise/fold 2,5x def shows a profit too, even Mizzi isn't super crazy there I guess.

And 20k is a lot of money for you (since you're a 12$ 180 grinder) you may wanna consider that so close to the bubble.

I hate to disagree with so many good players itt, but I'd fold. I don't really have any math or anything to prove my point. I just think this is too deep to be shoving 22 into a really good player with a huge stack who is probably calling you light. It's a lot of risk for an effectively neutal ev situation.

If both blinds were weak players I'd definitely raise/fold.

stack sizes are key this is a value shove to double up we are so likely to be getting a flip from the big stack and a fold so often from the sb that we can shove this purely for value i would rate this shove, based on stack sizes, reads and tournament situation a 10 of 10

we have 22.
i'm pretty sure we're praying they both fold.

Rather than using SC numbers you can simply calculate the EV by assuming all 3 remaining players will call with the same range, and that there is only 1 caller when called (simplifies the math a lot - and I'll leave most of the math out).

Let's also assume that at the odds you're offering by shoving 9M none of the 3 remaining players call even close to perfectly.

Here's how 2 scenarios pan out:

1. Only get called by 10% -> 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo
Probability of being called = 30%
Pot Equity when called = 40%
Chip ROI = 3.1%

2. Only get called by 5.1% -> 99+,AQs+,AQo+
Probability of being called = 15.3%
Pot Equity when called = 34%
Chip ROI = 5.09%

I still think that with 9M you can wait a little and look for a spot that gives you better than that.

shove. its only the ME

Definitely the best response in the entire thread!!!

I was on the button.

lol

pretty much agree with everyone who said shove and think mori made a great post.

Sorry - that's what I get for playing at the same time I'm posting at the same time I'm solving EV equations ....

So adjusting for position the numbers change to:

1. Only get called by 10% -> 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo
Probability of being called = 20%
Pot Equity when called = 40%
Chip ROI = 5.8%

2. Only get called by 5.1% -> 99+,AQs+,AQo+
Probability of being called = 10.2%
Pot Equity when called = 34%
Chip ROI = 7.1%


BTW in the case for 1 player calling amazingly perfectly (i.e. when they have any 2 cards that don't contain a 2 except the other 22) the numbers look like this:

Get called by 85.5%
Probability of being called = 85.5%
Pot Equity when called = 49%
Chip ROI = 4.6%