Poker Stars $??+$? No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t25 - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

[b]BB: t4352
[b]Hero (UTG): t1890
CO: t1739
[b]BTN: t1673
SB: t3846

Pre Flop: (t725) Hero is UTG with ??

Assume that all players are competent and know that you are a reg.

What are you pushing here and what range do you put the others on?

I you dont want to post your ranges, just Wiz them and post if you were surprised by the results. I was.

im shoving like top70%
bb will be calling the loosest obv so prolly like 44+ a8s+ k10s+ depending on how wide u normally shove in this spot

Haha this is exactly type of information that smart player can never share at this forum.

No interest? Maybe you guys knew that it should be as tight as it is. I didnt.

I was thinking like 25-30%.

I'd put CO and BTN on about 8%, SB on 15% and BB on about 20%. Haven't Wizzed this but I think I'm shoving 55+, A7s+, AT+, K9s+, KQ, QTs+, JTs

too tight imo

I think Gazillion is the closest on his push range. I disagree with his BB calling range because if BB is bad then A2 and 22 looks good to him and, as in this case, if BB is good then those hands and plenty more look good to him because of the pot odds (about 1.7 to 1) coupled with the fact that he knows you are good and he wants to get rid of you.

That puts us on about 15% here. I was surprised by that because I remember hearing someone say to push ATC before going below 3 BBs which is what would effectively happen here if you fold this.

This all came about because I had K2s here and was torn between
1. taking this -EV push or
2. folding and giving up all FE basically.

Which of these is better and why?

I lean towards a fold but hate it because if I dont pick up a hand soon, my next push will be with no FE from the CO or UTG and if I manage to double up then, my stack will only be about 2400 (less than what I would have if I could steal now) vs much more if I double up now. That's if no one busts. If they do, then I will have to try to fold into third as the big stack pwns.

Does anyone push here to avoid this scenerio?

Not really a quiz I guess. Just looking for some thoughts on this.

I'm not wide here fwiw.

I shove that hand for the exact same reason you stated. If you fold then your getting called next time u play a hand period. Here you at least have a slight possibility to take the pot, if you get called you still can double. Either way it puts you in a better spot than having 0 control if you fold.

Use your fold equity while you still have some (i.e. this hand) - shove ATC

The people that push this explained why. For those that say we should fold hands like 22 and K3s (wider than 30%), can you explain why? Is it just because it is -EV?

I will fold these too and explained why I hate doing it. The only reason I have for folding is that it is -EV and I can always hope for a miracle on the next couple of hands, but I feel like I am giving up and settling for third at best when I make this "correct" decision based on ICM.

I definitely include 22 in the 30% hands I'd push.

Sorry. I was just going by SNGPT which does include these hands in 30%. I get your point. Let's say a hand like K5o.

AnfieldRoad, Deurdy, Gazillion, why would you guys fold this and what are your expectations on the next few hands when you do?

Not going to post too much info here, but my shoving range is like 60-70% and def think you should be shoving K2s and K5o given how bleh our situation is once we fold - we should def be taking -ev shoves, its just up to you to decide how -ev. I wouldn't shove ATC here, but i would shove a really wide range and think less than 50% is probably a mistake

What Echo said.

I think 60-70 % is pretty close to my range too. It's nearly impossible to define hand by hand what u need to be shoving ingame IMO so this is pretty much feel question.

And ATC shover plz stop reading moshman...

I think 60-70% = everything that looks atleast a bit nice

super super wide we're in a crappy position here and have to take our chances. ICM is pretty bad for finding what range we should ship in with her imo fwiw

ATC here is bad.

Just aces obv.

and 72o to balance your range.

I think the key factor is that the shortstacks are immediately behind you, so you get hit by the blinds first, and are put in the position where you will be shoving one of the next three hands into a stack which will have odds to call you 100%. I like to think of this situation as a 3 way competition between the shortstacks as to who will double up first by busting one of the others, which will heavily focus the tables attention on the remaining shortie. Competent players know they have to make their move before running out of FE, so it is highly likely that one or other of the shorties will shove this or one of the next 3 hands with a very light holding - so if you fold, I think the odds favour you becoming the shortstack on the bubble with no FE, and hence likely to be the target of concerted action to bust you.

So, even though the immediate calculation results in a shove here being -EV, I think you should shove much wider, because I think ICM is probably overestimating your equity if fold in this situation.

ICM Equity

UTG 0.1586

CO 0.1477

BN 0.1428

SB 0.2656

BB 0.2853

I would argue that your position wrt the blinds and the shortstacks together with the stack sizes relative to the blinds, puts you at a greater disadvantage than the other two shortstacks, and that a "correct" calculation of your equity would have you at the bottom of the pile.

Instinctively, I feel that you are not going to make the money more than 20% of the time from this position, but if you can double up now, you will make the money >50% of the time. Instinct seems to reflect the logic of your position - so if you can get your chips in as a 40% dog, you are probably making a positive EV play even though ICM disagrees because it does not take into account all the factors.

I therefore think you should shove very wide -

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.127% 38.72% 01.41% 236040856584 8565473406.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J3o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }

Assuming a reasonably wide calling range:
Hand 1: 59.873% 58.47% 01.41% 356404995996 8565473406.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


Thanks for making me think about this one Loxxii, thought I'd throw my own particular spanner in to enjoy the responses!

I stopped reading ^^ when I saw 12 digit numbers (plus decimal places!). My loss obv, because it looks like it's probably a really worthwhile post.

Nice analysis Peru.

Per my other post, it seems I miss a lot of EP nearly ATC pushes with fellow short stacks behind me. Guess I have been using ICM too much. (Never thought I would say that.)