Villian plays 19/8 after 60 hands but has a 100% opening from Button

$10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXV (1400/2800)

Seat 2: andkeep (23646 in chips)
Seat 3: VsLnN (96274 in chips)
Seat 4: bigfishka44 (45320 in chips)
Seat 5: larabe77 (77677 in chips) --> VILLIAN on BU
Seat 6: Axeloni (30368 in chips) --> Hero in SB
Seat 7: Gansao (120039 in chips)
Seat 8: t9rben (37587 in chips)
Seat 9: Flushd72 (104082 in chips)
andkeep: posts the ante 350
VsLnN: posts the ante 350
bigfishka44: posts the ante 350
larabe77: posts the ante 350
Axeloni: posts the ante 350
Gansao: posts the ante 350
t9rben: posts the ante 350
Flushd72: posts the ante 350
Axeloni: posts small blind 1400
Gansao: posts big blind 2800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Axeloni [Kd Js]
t9rben: folds
Flushd72 has timed out
Flushd72: folds
Flushd72 is sitting out
Flushd72 has returned
andkeep: folds
VsLnN: folds
bigfishka44: folds
larabe77: raises 2800 to 5600
Axeloni: raises 24418 to 30018 and is all-in

I think I had some fold equity in this spot. I played tight since I was smallstack.
With a perceived range like [22+, A8o+, A2s+, KTo+, K9s+, QTo+, Q9s+, Jto, Jts+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s (24%)] VILLIAN should probable fold some small aces here..

What do you think? +EV push or not?

good shove

i like it

I'm shipping it too, minraise doesn't look so strong, lots of folding equity and still pretty good equity vs his calling range I believe.

Long term this is certainly +EV. And there is not question that there is long-term fold equity.

I did a cEV for a shove in this spot and I came out to about a +cEV of about 4.22x for shoving here. If you incorporate the times the BB wakes up with 99+/AJs+/AQo+ and calls us, the cEV is still 4.04x.

So shoving shows roughly a profit of 40% of our stack, which is too good to pass up here.

Nh.

New to the forum. Been playing poker casually for a while but am looking to take it a bit more serious. Have been looking through the hand advice here and its very good. Something i always intended to do but never really had the time.

Im trying to get my head around this expected value. Understand how to construct ranges etc. But it says you get 40% profit of our stack in this example. Is there a formula for doing this. I have looked on the site but it seems theres a lot of different ways of calc it.

If someone could do this here it would be much appreciated. I have tried myself on the 24% range but am not getting near 40%. What am i doing wrong.

Thanks in advance for the help.

Are my calculations correct here :

BTN FOLDS = +12600*.76 =9576

BTN CALLS/WINS = .24*.5216*(-30018-350) = -3834


BTN CALLS/LOSES = .24*.4739 (2800+30018+30018+2800) = +7465

EXPECTED VALUE =13206

Is this correct.

Sorry got the win % wrong. First posts not going well. Be good to understand this as i think its a part of my game im not good at. Going deep in some tournies noticed players reshoving and can see why now. Anyway appreciate if someone can have a look at this. Thanks.

BTN FOLDS = +12600*.76 =9576

BTN CALLS/WINS = .24*.5012*(-30018-350) = -3652


BTN CALLS/LOSES = .24*.449 (2800+30018+30018+2800) = +7072

EXPECTED VALUE =12996

Is this correct.

All in is definitely +ev.

If we assume a light opening range to villain:

Villain's Opening range: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J5s+,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K2o+,Q5o+,J7o+,T8o+,97o+,86o+,76o,65o -> 60.2% opening range.
Villain calls the shove: 77+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ -> 7.8% calling range

So, your FE is around 87%

Expect Value= FE*Pot before All in+(1-FE)*(Equity*(Pot before all in+the rest that villain call))-(1-Equity)*the amount risk with all in

EV=0.87*9800+0.13*(0.32*(9800+27218))-0.68*30018
EV=13839

How do you calculate fe 87%. Thanks

Lost on how to get 87%.

Villain's Opening range: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J5s+,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K2o+,Q5o+,J7o+,T8o+,97o+,86o+,76o,65o -> 60.2% opening range.
Villain calls the shove: 77+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ -> 7.8% calling range

0.078/0.602=0.129 -> 13% this is the calling range from his opening range, so 1-0.13 is the FE = 0.87

1-(0.078/0.602)=0.87

Ty for the help.

The pot before the allin is 9800. So you dont include the BB is that correct.

You're right. The pot is 12600 before the all in. My bad.

Should be this:

EV=0.87*12600+0.13*(0.32*(12600+27218))-0.68*30018
EV=10962+6209
EV=17171

Hopefully

Sorry about this but is the 27218 correct. Villian has to call 30018-5600=24418. I might be wrong on this. thanks

good shove with 10 BB. nh.

Looks fine with info given.

Other little things factor, like how good/stacksize aware you think villain is, have any of his LP opens been 3b recently and how did he react, what's your image like, etc. but these are all things only you can really get a feel for in-game.

cEV is one of my most preferred ways to evaluate hands or decisions and I have found that there seems to be many different methods used. Even various books I have read have slight variations on how to set up the calculations. But in almost all cases, the various methods arrive at answers that are close enough to eachother. In this case though, I get a rather drastically different answer than an answer previous posted. But like I said, there is a good chance to my method is not quite correct either.

This is how I would solve, I'll use the 87% fold equity and 32% range equity that were used earlier.

So here is how I genereally set these up:
cEV= Fold Pot + Win Pot - Loss Pot

Fold Pot= Fold Equity * Amount in Pot before we shove
Win Pot= Called%*Hero's Range Equity * (Amount in pot now + amount vill has to call if we shove)
Loss Pot=Called%* Vill's Range Equity*the chips in front of us

**effective stacks would sometimes effect our inputs, but not in this case


In this example there is 12600 in the pot before we act, we have 28618 in front of us when we act (after posting SB and ante), but villian would only have to call 24418 if we shove (we still need to pay 4200 just to meet his raise amount).

cEV=FP+WP-LP
=(.87*12600)+(.13*.32*[12600+24418])-(.13*.68*28618)
=9972


When I posted earlier ITT, I must have used different fold equities and range equities when I did a quick cEV and my answer must have been approx 11,5000 (which would represent a 40% cEV increase from our remaining stack, which is very very good). With the 9972 answer, we still get 35% which is quite good.