I snap called..but after thinking it over...whats the chance of me running into a set here? Is my call +EV in this spot?

NH

I 2nd guessed myself after I snapped off...thinking maybe I should have took my hand off the mouse before I made a decision.

His range appears to be at least moderately wide - snap call seems about right.

haven't seen spoiler but I sigh fold. I think his range here is heavily weighted towards sets trying to get you to call with a jack or AA-QQ


k, saw spoiler, still folding. it's not like we crush Axss


Board: 5h 6s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.227% 76.23% 00.00% 10565 0.00 { JJ, 66-55, AsQs, AsTs, 8s7s, 65s }
Hand 1: 23.773% 23.77% 00.00% 3295 0.00 { KdKs }

Des, its late and its the 70k. People take this line with 2 outers. All sorts of crap. But leaving out the worst, something like the below is more like it. The spr's pretty low once we get there, so any raise from him is a shove and if anything a shove should not weigh him heavily towards the nutted part, bit contradictive imo. Also, including stuff like most of what's in your range you must go wider. You cant include 65s and not include stuff like 89s, AJ etc. He flats AT here he loves to flat a lot more.

AA,JJ,66-55,AsQs,AJs,AsTs,As9s,QsTs,Ts9s,9s8s,8s7s,AJo 54.840%

KdKs 45.160%

also, we're never folding an overpair here so there are more profitable options here than to shove a set imo. Dynamics of btn blind puts up for some spew and barreling so widen his range if he shoves sets

Have you ever played the NSG? This is the stupidest range I've ever seen. It's comically and unrealistically tight.

Board: 5h 6s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.960% 61.96% 00.00% 12268 0.00 { JJ, 66-55, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, QsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 65s }
Hand 1: 38.040% 38.04% 00.00% 7532 0.00 { KdKs }


still not a call

Des, a person flatting 56 will flat most broadways pre and shove quite a few otf. Range seem inconsistent to me

wha broadyways? we have blocker to Ks and we know he can't have Js

I don't think he does this with AJ nearly as much as he would with a combo draw/set and there aren't many combo draws in his range esp because he have Ks

saying that if you include some 56 hands to that preflop raise he's clearly incompetent and you should widen that range and include some Jx hands whatever. Any flats with SC and crap will bring some 1 pair hands. Sure the shove looks more like a draw than anything but more a pair than nuts imo.

I don't think he ever shoves one pair that isn't a jack here. maybe once every 100 villains it will happen but I doubt it. when he shoves all those chips in he either wants us to fold with a really strong draw or thinks he's crushing our range and hopes we call. our line is very strong so I doubt he's got total air like ever.

I said Jx hands. And there are quite a few.

These ranges totally ignore the fact that sets are quite likely to raise small (and even occasionally just flat) as opposed to shoving.

^ applies to draws as well which would flat alot

there is nothing that is "standard" to play that way so I don't think this argument applies very well here. I think sets are ~50% of his combos and he needs to do this with his draws 3 times as often as with his sets to make it a breakevenish call

Snapcall imo - I think his range is much more consistent with a mediocre holding than a big hand.

Still comically tight, this is the easiest call ever. You can probably remove a couple combos of sets as well since he just crams the flop.

why don't you propose a range then?

villain called a raise then a 3 bet and crammed 100 bb over our bet. excuse me if I give him a somewhat tight/polarized range

And this ladies and gentlemen is why 50$ freezeouts are still profitable even with the hundreds of idiot fish who play them every night with no idea about poker here we have someone with 7k posts on a gambling forum up a decent amount of money online who wants to fold an overpair to a single raise in a 3b pot (with villain overcall/calling) on an unconnected board with a flush draw. WTF.

malta's range is enough to make it a call, I'd go a little wider and wouldn't be surprised to see KJ/AJ type stuff here often. Far more often than JJ anyway.

edit: i'd also discount all sets by 25-50%, which boosts our equity significantly

I'd also discount AJo like 90% of the times.

I just think most villains with half a brain would never take this line with AJo. usually they call flop and hope we don't bet again because when we 3 bet, they automatically assign us a range of AA/AK (and still flat anyway) <--- that's why the games are profitable.

I am known to make ridiculous calls. this is one I wouldn't make readless though.

But they would call 56, 78 pre? Still think your range is inconsistent. positive selection to your argument kinda thing

ya w/e just watched hand in replayer. I prob call this early too b/c of ****** factor.

ignore what I said.

I mean, no one with half a brain takes this line for value anyway. I just assume fish are fish until proven otherwise, that's why you pay attention to the tables/use HUDs/OPR people/make notes! The NSG is incredibly soft.