Predicted prob of winning and losing streaks during live mtt day or half day - final results
12-22-2022
, 08:03 PM
Here are the final results of the Excel sim. I've closed the other thread (unnecessarily tldr).
Skill levels shown are high skill 1in8 (12.5% win rate) - neutral skill 1in9 (11.1% win rate) - under skilled 1in10 (10% win rate)
Summary
These are the predicted probabilities based on randomly generated win/loss results of 250 hands over 1000 days. The trial was run 5 times and an average taken. Observed results were quite close across all five trials, and I'd expect that any math/formula solution to calculate a precise probability will be close to these predictions.
Copy of the rush and cold sim spreadsheets available via pm on request.
Skill levels shown are high skill 1in8 (12.5% win rate) - neutral skill 1in9 (11.1% win rate) - under skilled 1in10 (10% win rate)
Summary
- The chance of a losing streak varies from almost certain (0 wins in 2 orbits / 18 consecutive hands at least once during 250 hand live mtt day) to almost never (0 wins in 6 orbits / 54 consecutive hands), with skill level having a predictable and significant impact on the frequency of these losing streaks.
- The chance of a winning streak varies from almost certain (3 wins in one orbit, 4 wins in two orbits, 5 wins in three orbits) to almost never (6 wins in one orbit, 8 wins in two orbits, 10 wins in three orbits), with skill level having a predictable and significant impact on the frequency of these winning streaks.
These are the predicted probabilities based on randomly generated win/loss results of 250 hands over 1000 days. The trial was run 5 times and an average taken. Observed results were quite close across all five trials, and I'd expect that any math/formula solution to calculate a precise probability will be close to these predictions.
Copy of the rush and cold sim spreadsheets available via pm on request.
Last edited by oldsilver; 12-22-2022 at 10:10 PM.
