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Postflop ICM spot Postflop ICM spot

12-01-2019 , 09:59 PM
I am somewhat new to STTS so want to get some opinions on whether i should call or fold in situations like this

Unknown villains

I needed 32% to call but had 35% equity, which can be a justifiable call in a big field MTT but is that enough of an equity edge in an STT?

PokerStars - 10/20 Ante 3 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 1,388
Hero (UTG): 1,478
MP: 1,962
CO: 1,188
BTN: 1,596
SB: 1,388

6 players post ante of 3, SB posts SB 10, BB posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 48) Hero has Q K

Hero raises to 60, fold, CO raises to 100, fold, SB calls 90, BB calls 80, Hero calls 40

Flop: (418, 4 players) 4 T J
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets 1,085 and is all-in, SB raises to 1,285 and is all-in, fold, Hero?
Postflop ICM spot Quote
12-02-2019 , 04:01 AM
It is a snap fold to me, probably 9h and/or Ah could already be in play thus we may have even less outs
Postflop ICM spot Quote
12-02-2019 , 01:38 PM
Easy fold.
Postflop ICM spot Quote
12-03-2019 , 11:17 AM
OP did not state the prize structure. I will assume it is 70%, 30% and buy in is 10 + 1. To simplify, I assumed all players have stack size = 1500, which is not a bad approximation here.

Using ICM theory, if hero calls and wins his ICM win profit is 20 and if he loses, his loss is 11. Since his win probability is about 35% (seem reasonable to me with an OESD and backdoor flush draw), his EV is

0.35*20 – 0.65*11 = -0.15

If hero folds, his ICM EV is 1.60.

So, based on ICM and my assumptions on buy-in, structure and stack sizes, a fold is appropriate.
Postflop ICM spot Quote
12-04-2019 , 06:21 AM
I think stars 6max payout is 65/35. Also I got slightly different numbers:

EQ for calling and winning is pretty much exactly: 0.4
EQ for folding is roughly: 0.158
EQ for calling and loosing is close to zero, but not quite, lets put it at: 0.02

So you need:

0.4x + 0.02(1-x) = 0.158
0.38x = 0.156
x = 0.41

41% win to break-even on this call. I dont think you have that, but Im at work and cant check eq vs ranges.
Postflop ICM spot Quote

      
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