Poker Stars $16, AQ bubble - Page 2 - MTT Poker Strategy

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Poker Stars $16, AQ bubble

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06-30-2010 , 07:55 PM

#26

Deurdy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 10,646

AQs is really not good enough, cause I don't think villain is opening this wide tbh. I just put in the range he needs to shove for us to be break-even on the call.
If he is tighter, which I think he is, it's a pretty big mistake to call here ICM wise.

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06-30-2010 , 08:17 PM

#27

alexd11

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,965

Wow, Surprising. Thanks for clearing that up.

Given that I'll probably be looking to ship the next hand ATC, especially if the blinds are going up, I would still much rather take this spot I think. I guess that's why I'd probably suck at 9mans.

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06-30-2010 , 09:23 PM

#28

JacJacAtk

adept

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,064

Pretty sure the graph in Deurdy's example is bad, as this clearly becomes +EV as villain opens more hands, even if the blinds aren't all that tight. Think there might be some kind of bug in Wiz, because all the graphs I can make it spit out for this hand look goofy (none of them show anything below the 0 line, for instance).

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06-30-2010 , 09:25 PM

#29

Deurdy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 10,646

Quote:

Originally Posted by JacJacAtk

Yes, the graph seems wrong, but the calculation most likely isn't.

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07-01-2010 , 03:33 AM

#30

Monkey Banana

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 40,103

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckrogh

What handrange would you assign to villian in this spot MB?

Pretty much any ace, any broadway, any pair. The raise is a bit odd but he might be doing that whole if you shove and someone calls, he can fold thing, I dunno.

I'm surprised at deurdy's graph but I'm not very hot on push/fold so meh.

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07-01-2010 , 07:26 AM

#31

RagzToRiches

banned

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 3,958

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bonneville

Wow! Wtf? I think I am always calling this in-game, but apparently that's a huge leak. Deurdy's entire range-tree seems reasonable. The strange thing to me is that this is so NOT +EV but AQs is enough to go.

-0.02 isn't even close to a HUGE LEAK! Here you're the shortest stack and there's every chance the guy could be over 30% anyway u just never know. Pretty standard I can't imagine many top regs folding this to anyone.

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07-01-2010 , 07:48 AM

#32

Finnisher

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 2,187

This seems like at least a -0.5% call with sngwiz but imo stacks look like we are about to be in a situation where our ev<ICM so watever

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07-01-2010 , 08:08 AM

#33

Terro

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 160

Consider the stack size of all the players its a easy call, you dont have the luxery to fold this in last position, you are a favourit to bubble anyhow.

If the stack size of you or the others were better, its a easy fold, but on 200/400 in last chip position vs an opponent you will cripple its a go.

I mean how can you fold AQ for 5 big blinds vs one of your close rivals here?
Winning the hand means money and you cant hope for a better spot with 5 bb everyone else sitting with more.

If this is a leak, its not a big one if you consider your overall position in the SNG.

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