#~ OVERPAIR TO THE BOARD + FLUSHDRAW . . . CALL JAM ? ~# - MTT Poker Strategy

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#~ OVERPAIR TO THE BOARD + FLUSHDRAW . . . CALL JAM ? ~#

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06-12-2008 , 05:51 AM

kidphantom

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 78

Early on in the tournament, only hand played before was AKo UTG, raised 4x got 2 callers, c-bet the flop, villain flatted and folded to pot size bet on the turn after whiffing the board.

no reads on villain.

Full Tilt Poker $7,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 9 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

MP1: t2635
MP2: t2875
CO: t4580
BTN: t2315
Hero (SB): t2570
BB: t2810
UTG: t1605
UTG+1: t3100
UTG+2: t4510

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with 7

1 fold, UTG+1 calls t40, UTG+2 raises to t120, 3 folds, BTN calls t120, Hero calls t100, 2 folds

Flop: (t440) 6

(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets t440, BTN folds, Hero raises to t1140, UTG+2 raises to t4390 all in, Hero [?]

Advice would be appreciated,

KID

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06-12-2008 , 06:02 AM

heh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 10,270

As you play it, it becomes hard to fold. If you call you can hope you are up against an overpair without clubs. Most of the time I think you will see one of three things:

a) a pair higher than yours (TT+)
b) a higher flush than yours (assuming you even hit)
c) a combination of a+b where b becomes higher fd.

I would expect to be behind massively though and probably fold.

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06-12-2008 , 07:02 AM

Willd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 16,474

We are gonna be way behind a lot of the time here and even drawing dead occasionally (very occasionally since I think his PSB almost eliminates made flushes from his range). We only need 24.5% equity to call though and against a range of 88+,AcKc,AcQc,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs we have 27.6% equity. I think if we're raising this flop we should shove though and I think I might just call flop and see what he does on turn, probably folding to a bet on any card except a 7.

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06-12-2008 , 07:24 AM

dj_mercury

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,158

Ask yourself how often is villain potting on this scary flop threeway with worse than a slight overpair and a 7 high flush draw? In my opinion raising here is a suicide, although I wouldn't feel too happy about it I would check/fold without reads on villain, maybe is too nitty but I really don't think he is cbetting with air here and your hand is only apparently strong. As played I guess you have to call...

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