I fold AA here, 89s draws better. At least that's what Daniel Negraneau says!

And thanks for clearing that up Smite ya make an excellent point. Definitely made me think twice!

I'd have to also raise the rest of my range or they would quickly pick up on it. I only have like 8 or so regs in my game that are that saavy and I play super turbos and am rarely 13 effective BBs deep bvb so Im really not missing out on that much value imo.

I still advocate for this, as I have already done above...

but to play a bit of devil's advocate, u'd only vs those 8 regs who are "that saavy" right?


.... and yeah maybe it is a bit different in super turbos... I don't play those... However, I'd imagine it is more important to raise AA from the small blind instead of shoving it, because situations in which you can extract value don't pop up as often in superturbos...

But yeah, how often are you at 12/13bb effective in a superturbo? lol

Shove or raise depends on history imo. Your cbet is too big, but this is a good flop to bet.

+1 can some write a milestone on this so we can hotlink next time it comes up???

Ever try limp/betting 110 on flop? How about raising to 250/folding to rr, or not c-betting... there are other options besides shoving people!

Skitz surely 250 fold is awful????????

LOL @ shove.

Far from awful, as long as you mix in strong hands with weak ones and do it occasionally. The key is the opponent - his stats show he will fold the majority of the time here. Most players with those stats won't flat and won't shove. What would be awful is us shoving here. It's unnecessary at this stage and raise/folding accomplishes the same thing without us sticking in our whole stack. Hope that makes sense.

Again, this is opponent dependent. There are plenty of villains who will overshove with any 2 cards here if you raise 2.5x or 3x preflop. Against those guys it is definitely better to shove hands like K8o.

its shove/fold here for me without a read on the player. when i get 2.5xed BvB by a guy with 12BB its a pretty clear steal and if im stacked il often reraise knowing that he has no choice but to jam what is most of the time air.

basically 2.5xing there down to 8/9bb commits you to shove/folding the flop imo and if you miss its often very transparent.


i might open fold there if the villain was anything other than a nit.

Thanks for your contribution. Do you think we could trouble you to explain why you think you should not shove here?

Well Monkey you're definitely the one who can criticise my contribution to the thread.

Shoving K8o for 13BBs as a default is just not an optimal play. Might be good vs some specific villains, but vs most, limp/stab or r/f are much better. Basically what Skitz said.

And BTW I really enjoyed your & Juan's posts, I'd bet my whole BR that something like that was coming And I do agree with you both fwiw.

It's very interesting in that good regs have told other good regs shoving is terrible and good regs have told other good regs raise folding is terrible ITT. Looks like we've found a boundary line of strong opinions when actually none of it is terrible at all. I know plenty of TOP regs shove 13bbs with shyt all day long, it is +ev end of story. My personal view is going from 13bbs to 10 thru a raise fold can't exactly be the end of the world cos it leaves us with an easier shoving stack anyway but I just don't like it. On the view that such and such a stat rarely comes over the top etc I disagree with. Bvb features THE most meta/pride play of any other situation in the game at any blind level, and I personally get my 2.5x's shoved on an absolute ton or flatted by total crap and we can't cbet.

Limp-stab>shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>raise-fold imo.

Yeah I just think shoving is less valuable than winning it a less risky way if we can. Also I'm not saying raise vs. any opponent - the stats we have on this particular villain make it the best play in my mind. In other words, when we have a nit in the blinds and an awkward stack size, we don't need to just shove - we'll accomplish the same thing by raising small. If they do wake up with a hand we've lost 250 as opposed to our tournament. Nitty opponents are rarely flatting and are coming over the top even less (only if they've got mid to high pairs, big aces or KQ etc.)

The thing with nitty stats is they will often IME work the other way around. In other words you know a 10/7 is a reg and he knows you're a reg so he is calling and potentially reshoving wide. I dunno maybe I just haven't 2-3x'd v enough tight stats in the blinds to be able to record that situation to a high volume but it just seems to me tight reg stats come over the top alot more often than looser stats do. Maybe it's a spot I can start making changes to but I know that with 12bbs and K8o I would much rather take down the 12.5% of my stack with a shove and raise fold 72o, and well with antes, I say the same with 16bbs.

It wasn't my intention to refer on that discussion with my sample hand - I guess that was a suckout from my side.

About the discussion: I think its very interesting. Especially the "How more often will the BB have AA if its folded around until the SB" part.
I think that we still have to make a difference between a sit and go where there are ~160 bbs in total, and between an MTT where there are a thousands of BBs still around the players.
That statement sounds a bit silly, I'm just trying to point out the fact that in an MTT you are willing to gamble at an early/mid stage more since the big score is still far away from you.

Yes, +EV is +EV but shoving is not necessarily the biggest +EV in that spot.

Did i make at least somewhat sense?

Ragz I leveled myself into calling these 13bb reshoves from tight villains for a long time and most (80% imo) of the time they have it.

shrug

I just made a little joke with michty because I'm pretty sure I called a raise from him in exactly that sort of spot.

Can you substantiate that or you just want to assert it?

I don't really have a view on it. I haven't given it much thought. I mean, it's pretty obvious that if villain folds as often to a raise as he does to a shove, or close enough to it, it's less risky. Do they though? I'm asking, I don't know. I'd certainly like to improve this part of my game but I'm not wholly convinced a shove is lol.

cliffs:
One's playing style surely differs from anothers.

Here are some numbers put to the discussion.

For comparison lets say villain calls a shove with one of the following three ranges:
"Nitty" 21.1% range: 33 A5o A2s KTo K9s
"Nittier" 17.0% range: 44 A7o A4s KJo KTs
"Nittiest" 14.6% range: 44 A8o A5s KQo KJs

The EV of shoving vs those ranges is +0.11%, +0.27%, +0.38%.

Now lets see how well a raise-fold will do vs villain if they only play push-fold against our raise. We will choose between a 2.5x raise, 2.75x raise or a 3x raise.

ICM:
Now, since we want to know if the EV of raise-folding is better than shoving, we can substitute in +0.11%, +0.27% and +0.38% as EV_required.

Required % villain shoves vs your raise to make EV raise-fold = EV shove:
Eg. Looking at the table above you see that vs a villain that calls 17.0% vs a shove ("Nittier") they would need to shove (or flat) wider than 30.8% vs your 275 raise-fold to make it worse than shoving.

Personally, I think K8o can go in either your open shove or your raise-fold range, it just depends how you choose to manipulate your ranges to exploit villain. Villain's vpip is a tad high compared to their pfr so I prob ~2.75x raise without much history.

so that settles it I guess. Nice work IFP1s.

Im gonna just keep shoving though I dont like to have to think that much. Thats why I play super turbos.

IFP1's analysis doesn't include what happens when villain calls, and you have to play a pot out of position heads-up. That is where most of the value is lost by 2.5x raising. It's wrong to assume that all you lose in this situation is the initial raise.

Folding straight away postflop when you get flat called pre should solve that.

So your figures are assuming that if called, you always lose?