I thought your code was the engine that drives the HEM red line?

@ Rusmandingo:

I'm shocked that there is so much consistency in your 6max graph. Those will be the swingy-est of them all I think.

Also, even though we have to take negative edges when we have a short stack, everyone else does too. So there is equity spew that comes our way from this, even though they're theoretically making "correct" plays. I don't know if it's enough to balance out our plays that create -$EV for the red line, but it probably does a decent job considering the red line seems to keep up.

Also, I have the exact same problem as you. Despite my green line being up 160 buy-ins on the year above my red, I'm still below $EV because of how horrible I run at the $36s. Which is pretty much all I bitch about in my blog.

@brbrbrbr

I've also been wondering about the 20k sng doomswitch. Even 25ll1 180ux is plateauing after his initial skyrocket. Someone should punch howard lederer in the balls.

I did devise a counter measure against the run bad as described in this post:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...0-sngs-881707/

I've been wearing the rounded tinfoil hat. You can tell by his face that he clearly runs better than the pointy hat guy.

Oh yeah I remember that thread, lol. I forgot who you were. Sucks you got passed last minute for the SNG madness leaderboard freeroll. Unless you would have messed up our 8way chop, in which case im glad you missed out

Nope, mikechops wrote the code for HEM (which is a good thing, since we can be much more sure the implementations aren't bugged as we get identical results).

I only really wrote my version because I didn't believe the output of the original "SNG Luck Analyser" application was correct (later we found out he'd been using the equity's rather than the outcomes which explained the weird output...).

The problem (and the reason mine lived on longer than it should have) was the guy then stopped work on his "SNG Luck Analyser" application and for a few months (until HEM implemented it) my code, along with the AHK converters for Stars/FTP, was the only thing around to use.

Juk

God. I was so pissed because even 45 minutes after madness ended, I thought I had it locked up. Stupid evil genius mother ****er who played 56 minutes of 6max supers and then loaded up 16 non turbo sngs. I came back an hour later to see that he earned an extra 80 points. Gotta tip my cap to him for outsmarting me, but I was so pissed.

What's your FTP sn?

wwkrzyzewskid

I first did that that strat and then a couple people copied me. I was surprised more people didnt figure it out.

yeah i felt like an idiot for not thinking about it even though I knew the non supers were worth double points. So how did the chop work? One guy got eliminated and then you split it by ICM? Wonder what would've happened if somebody won multiple leaderboards.

We played like 5 hands and then someone said, "anyone want to chops" and everyone agreed. It was funny cause me and the low buyin guys were doing it cause it was a decent amount of money to us, and the high BI guys were prob doing it cause they grind high stakes STs and didnt want to waste the time playing a 1500 chip sng for relatively little money.

I was wondering about that too. If they would have just given me 625 bucks, I would have taken a shot at the 10 dollar leaderboard. That strat is super powerful and I'd researched the point system and figured out how to adjust my play to maximize points. I pmed doug to ask him what would happen but he never got back to me. I think they would have just put the 3rd place guy in. I had the top 2 scores in the A bracket but they only counted 1, so I assume they would go out of their way to make sure 8 different people got in. Pretty fun weekend though, getting in ~80 games/hour.

after big downswing on stars I started to play on FTP and my red line is copying my green line, well, greenline is up to red line, but when redline is going up, greenline is going up too

Just noticed my red line was getting close to breakeven.
Turns out i got it in with AJ+ JJ+ and dominated on the bubble, but due to me being the smaller stack size and busting it was "-$ev" even tho it was massive +ev situation.

I think its good red line considers stack size, but shouldnt it be a little +$ev to get it in JJ v AJ when ur last position only coverd by a little and its vs ur clostest rival?

Terro you should study up on ICM and not worry about how your redline moves after each individual tourney. Just view it at a macro level as a bit more accurate representation of your "true" .

HEM says this is -$57.11 "$EV diff". How is that possible? My ICM Eq is 10.5% = $33 with 1290 chips, so how can i make a -$57 decision with chips worth $33?

Thank you!

.net] Holdem Manager[/url]
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,710)
BB ($2,330)
Hero ($1,290)
UTG+1 ($3,030)
CO ($2,990)
BTN ($2,150)

Dealt to Hero Q A

Hero raises to $1,290 (AI), fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $1,090

FLOP ($2,680) K 5 2

TURN ($2,680) K 5 2 4

RIVER ($2,680) K 5 2 4 3

BB shows A A
(Pre 92%, Flop 62.9%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero shows Q A
(Pre 8%, Flop 37.1%, Turn 100.0%)

Hero wins $2,680

It might help if you said what buyin and site this is so we know the structure.

A negative $EV diff doesn't mean you made a -$EV decision, it means you were "lucky" to the tune of $57.

If i already looked at some spots and posted it was +ev move on the bubble i dont need to study up on anything... its still +ev even if i study ICM more

Sorry, it´s a §38 9man on Stars

Your play was +EV. You got unlucky that you run into aces, then you got lucky that you've won. HM only measures the second luck, because that's the part we know how to calculate.

As for $57 of luck, starting with $33, you started the hand with $33, the put was that plus your opponents chips plus blinds. If we say that the pot was worth about $65 or so for you (if you win it all), and you were expecting to get 8% of it, that means you got lucky for the extra 92%. That's how you get that $57.

can one of the super high volume 82 hyper sats post a graph with red line showing for 20k+ games? would be nice to get an idea of red line trends etc, im starting to think 10k games is pretty small for the hypers.

My month was really sick, I am runnin ~ 30% ROI since like 18 days.

Now I have the roll for the 22s. How much should I worry? Is such a difference between the expected and actual graph normal?
Should I try the 22s out or I should stay on the 11s cuz my red line is looking like a dying persons heart rate?



Edit: the sample is over 216 SNGs

216 games isnt even enough of a sample for your redline to be accurate. If you want to move up go ahead, but you need a few thousand games to take any stock in your redline.

Does this make more sense? 1117 games played.
Edit: Yes, I know its not over 2k. But thats all what i've got.

I dont know what you mean by "make sense"? It's a better sample and both lines are probably a little more accurate than in your other graph. Both of those graphs are in the realm of possibility; obv.

Your most likely a winner at those games, so if you are rolled and confident, take a shot at the next level.

Thanks for the reply!
By the "Does this make more sense?" part I meant Does this give a more accurate/reliable picture?

I didn't wanted to post the All time graph because in those there were included smaller buyin STTs too. And I am getting this awkward red line since I'm playing the 11s. So I am/was afraid that I'm doing something wrong there.

I haven't seen a graph like this at all much in this thread. I'm prob a 7% winner at 27s & 3% at 38s over tons o games, and then this(about 60% 27s/40% 38s):



Red line below 0 and not really ever spiking up? Seems a bit weird. I know the games are tough due to the end of the year and obv other factors, but just seems weird to me. I don't feel like I've been running into monster hands a ton either, just a real lack of hands on the bubble. My QQ-AA/AKs/AK numbers are quite low during this stretch. Smallish sample I know, so not worried just curious.

Im assuming those are all 9mans. 1500-2k looks like either just sick coolers or possible tilt/drift. I play low stakes super turbos at similar roi to your overall, and I dont think I've seen any redline downswings like that.

That's pretty crazy though. Youd think 2k games should be enough for your redline to converge pretty closely to your "true" roi. I guess just a perfect storm of increased competition and bad hands/coolers. I wonder if somehow there was a movement to these games from DONs or people pissed off at Full Tilt or something.