I'm 7/22 in this tourney. No info on villain.

What should I do facing this overbet jam?

You gotta fold here and just suck it up. He either has a monster draw or a an overpair that dopesnt wanna see anymore cards. The real question is why arent you 3-betting pre in position with AJ

What monster draw can he have? I have the nut FD. Even against an overpair I have huge equity - not exactly sure of the maths but I think I'm about 40% vs KK or QQ and a favourite vs TT, 99.

Obv I'm in bad shape vs sets and made flushes but that's top of his range and worst case scenario I still have 7 or 9 outs twice.

3bet pre or fold, OOP sucks.

i'd just fold and move on dude.

over pair with no hearts..sometimes a set.. easy read, easy fold..
+1 to 3 bet pre.

Any heart plus straight cards, or pair plus FD, is a monster draw from his POV and thats about the worst he can have here. Even if he has 62o youre going to lose a ~30% of the time. 3 bet pre, you have a big hand and position. If that had gone 3b, he calls, you can call wider on this flop than you can just flatting his open since you can take qq+ out of his range. As played, muck and move on, it wont be hard to get his chips later on if hes making plays like this

fold or 3-bet pre

easy fold now, you still have a good stack.

Given the antes, maybe a 3-bet here is fine (I'm not putting it into the calcuator)

I actually disagree with others who say you should fold. If you are folding this flop, why are you calling preflop in the first place? Given the call preflop, it's only logical to call postflop with the nutflush draw and two potential overcards (right?)

You can't call/fold here in my opinion. Well, others may disagree.

so the only reason to call pre is to flop 3 hearts and hope he overbet shoves so you can stack off with no pair just before the ft? here I was thinking AJ was a strong hand and likely ahead of a c/o open and looking to flop tp+ or smth, play a reasonable hand oop, mb even apply pressure on my opponent with a variety of textures, including this one had he not already shipped it in and put the pressure back on me.

All I'm saying is if you would have three bet it (and again I didn't put it into the calculator), then it's all the same ****. You either three bet or call preflop and call virtually everything (particularly when this flop actually does hit him at least a little).

Why would some recommend 3-betting here and at the same time recommend calling and folding to this flop? I just don't get it.

whether we 3b or call pre has nothing to do with the decision we're faced with now, the two are completely independent of one another. we have no pair and likely no showdown value vs villain's overshove unless we hit. though we might have good enough equity to call from an EV standpoint (not interested in doing the math cuz I don't find the spot that interesting) this close to the ft it's an icm disaster.

I'm not OOP - I'm in the CO vs UTG.

It doesn't matter if it's a monster from his POV. From my POV I have the nut FD so it's not a monster.

So you'd fold with 70% equity?

It's not always a 3bet spot. I might 3bet here sometimes if I have a read on villain but I have no info on villain other than he's raised UTG with ~25bb. He's either 4betting or folding most of the time. The fact that I have position is more of a reason to peel a flop with a mid-range hand.

Why is it always an auto 3-bet?

Thank you. What calculator can you use for 3-bets?

Think you misread the hand mate. The open was from UTG, I was in the CO. But my intentions were as you said - looking to flop tp+ or smth and play a reasonable hand - only I was in position so it's a better spot to flat, no?

Granted villain has pushed and taken away our options but I still don't think it's an easy fold. If we have sufficient equity it's essentially a coin-flip for the tournament CL. If I win this spot I'll have a 50BB stack and can exert a lot more pressure approaching the FT.

I'm curious as to why you think this spot is an ICM disaster but not this one:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/23...e-wtf-1482222/

I must have, yes. I don't mind the flat. People are too afraid to play AJo imo.

the two spots are quite different in my mind. 20bb's with 30 left is getting closer to desperate than 30bbs with 22 left. He has 12 clean outs up to 15, you have 9 up to 14.

Because we have blockers and he's never 4b Ingalls light. 3b is good cus it gives us more ways to win other than hit the hand post.

3b pre

as played I proly sigh fold in game

flatting is okay , but given that sb/bb is short i'd much rather 3-bet/f here.

the reason as to why we should 3-bet is because at these effective stacks we want to be putting pressure on V , if v has a marginal hand like medium pocket pairs or Broadway type of hand like KQ/KJ/JQ/AT , it'll be difficult for him to 4-bet/jam , since he's only going to get called by better hands so really we are pretty much looking to take it down pre flop, if v decides to call we will have to play cautiously post flop.

also if v does flat , can discount a lot of stronger hands in their raise/calling range, like AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK , since these hands will very likely 4-bet call in this spot. you'll face some trickier players that very may well flat these hands but we are not looking to play a big pot with our hand anyway.




@OP , i'd call otf, run good

They are some slight differences but the situations are fundamentally the same - whether to call off our stack on a nut draw with additional outs.

Yes 30bb is a bit more comfortable than 22bb but I don't think it makes a huge difference to our decision. The difference between 30 players or 22 players left is immaterial.

I'm just trying to weigh up the outcomes:
- fold and continue to chip away with my 30bb stack and prob make the FT more often but only with an average stack, or
- gamble for a final table stack on what looks like an even money shot. Yes we may brick 50% of the time but the other 50% that we hit gives us the CL and significantly increases our tournament equity with only 22 players left.

Obv it's a high variance option but I'm looking for spots to open up my game and finish top 3 more often. This seems like a good spot to put myself in a position to TID/finish top 3 or burn out in a blaze of glory, ICM be damned.

Some fair points.. but what does "Ingalls" mean?

Persuasively argued, I think I'm leaning toward a 3-bet pre now.

Please teach me how to run good

have you run any ranges through pokerstove? I put through something like this:

KK-55,As8s,A6s,98s,87s,76s,A8o

which I think might be wider than he is with just a couple of bluffs and semi-bluffs but who knows. you've got just about eough equity vs this range to b/e on this call which is more than I would've expected. If you run similar numbers in the other spot, he has considerably more equity and the call is profitable and I disagree that there is just a nominal difference between stack size and number of players.

I make plenty of top 3's and I don't make bad calls around the ft bubble to do it. I really don't think there's any glory in calling off your chips in what is at best a b/e spot. Had he c-bet and you jammed over it or r/c that'd be a little different and have a little more glory to it imo.