Ok so this is a $160 10k guaranteed Live MTT- 111 players (top prize 4k), we are down to 11 players. The top 12 get paid; we only recently landed in the money a few hands ago. Right now there are two tables left and when the next person gets eliminated we will form the final table. I'm currently sitting with 4 other players. Blinds are 12k/6k with a 2k ante and I have 106k in the SB before posting.

Here are reads on the 4 players:

BB (120k): Late 20's kid, pretty tight, only seen him shove/call shoves with pocket pairs, I shoved on him earlier in the tourney with TT preflop and he actually thought for a bit and then sighed and said "I guess I can't fold" as he called and flipped over KK.

UTG (160k): Early 30's guy in sweatshirt and baseball cap who was recently placed at our table. He was dealt QQ on his third hand and busted someone, but otherwise no reads because he is new. However, he does seem to know some of the other tourney players personally as well as some of the dealers i.e. a regular.

MP (107k): Kid in his late 20s. Has been fairly tight recently when we were on the bubble. He shoved 77 preflop and held to double up when there were about 18 players left. He has shoved a few times pre flop without being called. I played a hand at the start of the tournament against him where he played a flush draw passively OOP.

BTN (200k): Big stack at the table, man in his 40s. Very animated and has apparently been in several tournaments over the past week. Was playing fairly crazy in the earlier stages of the tournament. Saw him call an all-in from a short stack (but not super short) with 54o at one point. The past several orbits he has limped multiple times and then fired at the flop in what I believe have been steal attempts. He has also raised very large pre flop with hands like 63o from the CO.

Now for the hand:

Dealt to Hero: KQ

UTG folds
MP shoves for 107k
BTN folds

Hero- Call or fold?

KdQd - 46.9 %
33+,A4s+,K9s+,QTs+,A8o+,KTo+ - 53.10 %

100k to see 133k is 1.3:1 on a call. Its not a fist pump call as most of the time you will be flipping. I think i might actually fold here and would rather jam it in with any 2 on the button or co 5 handed

Even if we add some suited connectors in there and add his pushing range to 20 % of total hands we have 48 % equity vs 33+,A4s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,A8o+,KTo+

If villain is actually pushing as tight as Larry is suggesting, I am folding, but its hard to say without being in table. If I were villain I would push about 30% and this would be a clear call.

This is a tough spot , with only 4 players on your table , villian will be shoving fairly wide imo , like a5s+ j10s+ kjs+ 22+.

with 9bb i think this is a call against this range.

Its a fold against that range.

why is it a fold agianst that range, kqs+ dominates hands like j10s , jqs , jks , it flips with any pair thats ranged at 22-jj and against hands like a2s+ we're slightly behind....

the range that you have given sounds more realistic then mine with the 20%.

hero said villian is pretty tight , are u sure that villian will be shoving here with 20% , i'd think a bit more wider when its 5 handed like 30%?

Not on my comp now, so I can't give u any calcs, but look at Larry's numbers. Like I said in my earlier post I would be shoving ~30%, but its hard to say how wide this villain is.

okay ty puzo.

so calling here seems slightly unprofitable then against the range that larry metioned where you are likely to have around 46% equity against their range.

it's a close one all round.

the point im trying to make is calling your stack off on a FT bubble on a flip is a bad play especially when we have an edge... and even if we didn't have an edge it's + ev to jam any 2 cards next hand with 9 bb than call here

By folding here we can pick spots to pick up chips where we put chips in the middle first and give other people bad odds / difficult decisions to call it off

Shove with this. Do not call with this in this spot on the FT bubble.

This.

In addition, you can even min raise fold 1 time (or more if its getting through) into tight BB, before starting to shove even if your stack is 10-12BB's, its live MTT, and people might suspect you are trapping, which you would of course would you pick up AA-JJ.

So in weaker fields, go for a fold, which might be -EV vs certain ranges, to try to chip up in easier spots as you are the aggressor if you are giving yourself any edge.

What hands are we calling here? 55+, AQo+?

A10 + / 77 is a snap

I'd fold since you read suggests that MP isn't playing too crazy. Would rather find a shove spot with FE in the next couple of hands.

I agree , it's better to find a spot where we have Fold equity but im not to sure if 77 and a10s is a snap since its FT bubble?

why is it a snap, think about it 7s are still fliping with any two over cards? same goes for kqs vs any pair thats lower then queens...

77 vs 33+,A4s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,A8o+,KTo+ = 51.2 % equity
a10 vs 33+,A4s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,A8o+,KTo+ = 50 % equity

I guess i messed up my ranges a bit realistically villian i probably shoving all aces. 77 Doesn't have to be a snap but i'd defiantly call with a10 we crush all weaker aces and are in a 60/40 vs all broadways

I don't like calling with KQ in this spot as we are behind all ace rags which are probably a solid portion of his shoving range I'd much rather have a10 here. As stated 77 can be a tight fold but with 51% equity and 1.3:1 on a call I'd call it off but it's close and i don't think it's incorrect to fold either

WHat edge we talkin' bout with 8bbs? Seems like an trivial overshove but didnt ran numbers oid (dont know the payouts either) especially 5handed.

Most people in lolliveaments are big nits that don't know shovin and calling ranges. When the whole table is 10bb average we still have a big edge in being able to shove wide , identify our opponents on who else is shoving wide and snap them off light. With 9 bb we still have fold equity as its the table average